Sporting Gijon vs Atletico Madrid
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Primera Liga game between relegation-threatened Sporting Gijon and in-form Atletico Madrid.
Sporting Gijon were drubbed 4-0 on their recent trip to Valencia CF. The Mestalla is never an easy place to go and Sporting were made painfully aware of that in their defeat. It perhaps could have been different had Colunga hit his shot across the goalkeeper in the second-half but he didn’t and that cost Sporting as they poured more men forward, got caught easily on counter-attacks, and were ultimately eased past. Either way, Valencia fully deserved the win so the outcome was fair although the scoreline was perhaps a shade flattering.
Sporting Gijon have since appointed the vastly experienced Javier Clemente as their new manager and that’s got to be a good thing. I said before that Preciado is the only manager that could keep them in the Primera Liga and I stand by that. However, Clemente wasn’t far behind on the list following his near-heroics with Real Valladolid a few years ago and thus I think it’s a good appointment for Sporting Gijon. Is it too little too late though? I think so. Sporting are struggling on the quality side of things and Clemente hasn’t been able to bring his own players in to help out. Sporting will have work hard under Clemente – that’s the way it always is – but I just don’t know if it’ll be enough.
Clemente has already stamped his authority on the club by claiming that striker Nacho Novo has left the club because he is basically “scared”. Novo has joined Legia Warsaw in Poland, incidentally. Clemente is never one to shy away from speaking his mind and it’s that kind of bluntness that Sporting Gijon really need to appreciate the situation that they’re in.
For today’s game, Sporting miss regular defender Ivan Hernandez although they welcome back Canella so it’s not all bad. Aside from that, it’s only rotation players that are absent here so it’ll be interesting to see if Clemente can whip them into shape.
Personally, I can’t see it happening yet. This is a very tough game for Sporting Gijon. They know that Atletico Madrid are better than they are and no amount of tenacity will make that any easier to deal with. Additionally, Atletico Madrid are playing very well under Diego Simeone, looking incredibly well-organised and very clinical. Their defence looks strong (I half-expect the world to implode through me merely writing those words!!) and given that only Antonio Lopez is out for the visitors today, I think we’ll see another efficient display from the visitors.
Atletico Madrid enter this game on the back of a heroic 1-3 victory in Italy against Lazio in the UEFA Europa League as the red-and-whites of Madrid continue to impress. That was their third win in four away games in all competitions and it was the first one of those four away games that they’ve actually conceded in. Atletico Madrid look a very efficient unit right now and the fact that they’ve won at Real Sociedad and Osasuna tells you that they can win in Gijon too with the latter two trips being harder games, in my view.
Colombian striker Falcao is already on fourteen goals in nineteen appearances for Atletico this season so you don’t need me to tell you how lethal he is when given chance. Helpfully, ex-Deportivo La Coruna striker Adrian provides the running alongside him and perhaps doesn’t get the credit he deserves for that role. Either way, with the reborn Diego pulling the strings and tricky Turkish winger Arda Turan wreaking mayhem on the flanks, you have to expect Atletico to produce another convincing display here.
Therefore, I think Atletico will win this game. It shouldn’t be a humiliation; I doubt Clemente would stand for that. However, I do think that Atletico have enough to win the game here, irrespective of the “new manager syndrome” caused by Clemente’s arrival. Therefore, the away win at 10/11 appeals to me today.
Verdict: Atletico Madrid to win at 10/11.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Crawley Town vs Stoke City – over 2.5 goals at evens.
The FA Cup is not often a cash cow for betting and this game is no different. However, I do like the price on over 2.5 goals in this one, hence the selection.
Crawley have a lot of money behind them and have a lot of good players in their squad as a result. They’re ran intelligently, though, which is admirable when you see how shambolic some rich clubs are ran. Subsequently, Crawley are easing through division after division in search of their ultimate prize – the Premier League. It’s hard to envision them not making it, too.
That point aside, however, Crawley do actually play really good football. You could be forgiven for thinking that they’d not last five minutes in the Premier League and perhaps you’d be right. However, I would disagree with that, having seen them take on a whole host of “superior” teams over the past couple of years and generally upsetting the vast majority of them. Indeed, they were unlucky to lose against Manchester United at Old Trafford in their FA Cup tie there last season so I certainly won’t rule them out from doing well at home here.
Stoke City are competing on a lot of fronts this season and it’s beginning to show. They look stretched and that’s no surprise, really. They played on thursday night at home against Spanish giants Valencia CF in the UEFA Europa League and lost the game 0-1, which was perhaps a bit harsh as the draw would have been a much more fair reflection on a rather droll game. However, Turkish midfielder Topal had different ideas and scored an absolute pearler from range to claim a priceless win for the Spaniards. Stoke have to bounce back from that today but how easy will that be for them? They’re playing games virtually every few days now and as much as I rate Pulis and his hard-working squad, I just don’t think they have the depth to cope in some key areas and thus I think they may just exit the FA Cup today.
Stoke play a very physical game and Crawley are using to facing that in the lower leagues as that’s the approach of most sides in and around them. I therefore think that Crawley may even be worth a cheeky bet to win the game outright. However, given the somewhat random nature of the FA Cup, I’d rather avoid the 1×2 market entirely. Instead, taking over 2.5 goals between two good but contrasting sides looks very appealing to me at evens.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Genoa vs Chievo Verona – home win at evens.
Gilardino is still out for Genoa but they’ve got more than enough going forward to make it count at home. Genoa are an infamous side on their own turf in Italy because they’re very hard to beat. They’ve been something of a kamikaze side in the past month or two when it comes to defending due to a constant stream of absentees, a list that continues even today with Bovo, Moretti, and Antonelli amongst the missing players. However, Genoa have enough going forward with Palacio to make it count here and I expect them to do it against a meager Chievo side today. Chievo are good at frustrating sides but the old Chievo that was pure dynamite on their counter-attacks has seemingly gone into hibernation for some time now. Chievo may well capitalise on Genoa’s defensive frailties today but I suspect that they’ll end the game as the losing side because Genoa should outscore them. For me, the home win at evens is worth a bet here.
Verdict: Genoa to win at evens.
AS Roma vs Parma – over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
As always, the 1×2 market for Roma games just doesn’t interest me. As it happens, I do expect Roma to win this game but there’s no value in handicapping a side that cannot defend. Roma have plenty of offensive power and the likes of Lamela have played really well of late, so much so that the ex-River Plate prodigy has earned a call-up to the Argentinian national team. Roma are convincing when they go forward and it’s no surprise with the amount of money that has been ploughed into the team. However, I struggle to name a single competent display of theirs defensively and with Seb Giovinco a constant threat up front for Parma, you have to feel that there will be plenty of goals in this one, just as there usually are in Roma’s home games.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/6.
Udinese vs Cagliari – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Udinese have impressed in Serie A this season but it has to be said that their impressive displays have come from astute tactical approaches and hard work. This side has quality players but not in the same way as AC Milan. For example, AC Milan boasts a wealth of attacking talent with the intent of outscoring their opponents. Udinese don’t have the same financial backing and thus take a more defensive approach. Instead, Udinese pack their midfield with big, quick, and strong midfielders, all capable of passing the ball. If your opponent has midfielders that don’t tire easily then you have to find other ways past them and thus it’s easier to understand why only the bigger sides have really beaten Udinese with any kind of convincing display this season.
Udinese have one weak spot, however; attack. They only have Di Natale who is an instinctive finisher and he’s out of the game today. Then you also have the news that Chilean battler Isla has said that he’ll be moving on in June – it’s no surprise that he isn’t playing today either with that in mind. Midfield engine Badu also misses out whilst Pinzi is a doubt so midfield, which is easily Udinese’s strongest area, looks a bit of a grey area for Udinese today. I’d still not rule them out in regard to winning the game but it’d be a braver man than I am who takes it with the above in mind.
Helpfully, they’re facing Cagliari today, who are amongst the most tenacious sides in Serie A. This side is quite simply a nightmare to play against unless you match their work ethic and take your chances because Cagliari never stop working. There are no new absentees for Cagliari although new striker Pinilla and experienced striker Cossu are both doubts for the visitors today, which is a problem. Much like Udinese, Cagliari struggle to convert their chances, especially away from their beloved Sardinia. Indeed, I’d go as far as to liken Cagliari as a “poor man’s Udinese”, if you know where I am coming from. Cagliari boast similar levels of organisation to their hosts and work just as hard so I think we’re in for a tough game here.
I can’t see this one being remotely easy on the eye or an advert for football. Instead, I expect cards, few clear chances, and few goals. For me, under 2.5 goals looks well worth it at 4/5 with the above in mind.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Vitesse Arnhem vs Twente Enschede – lay Twente Enschede at 10/11.
I can accept that Twente are favourites to win this game; that’s only to be expected until Vitesse prove themselves on a consistent basis. However, they’re way too short here, in my view. Arnhem has proven to be a tough away game for almost every side to visit them this season and is it any wonder? This is arguably the richest club in the Netherlands and they boast some terrific players in their squad as a result. They’ve got a very good manager in Van der Brom, who knows exactly how to motivate his sides. Vitesse’s two failings are not having enough experienced players and not scoring enough goals but those are two aspects that they can work on. At home, Vitesse are hard to penetrate and even harder to get points off as a result. They’ve got more than enough players in their squad to actually win this game, let alone avoid defeat in it! Vitesse have had a week to prepare for this game whereas Twente have only just come back from a game in freezing Bucharest, which they’ll be pleased to have won (thanks to a beautiful lob from John) but will undoubtedly be a little tired from. McLaren may need to swap a few players around here and this is the time where you feel that Twente should really have kept Janko so that the replacement gives an option of a completely different gameplan. Instead, they have no alternative as Verhoek is injured and is easier to handle than Janko is, good though Verhoek unquestionably is. Long story short; I think Twente look a bit predictable ahead of this game. Additionally, I’ve not been impressed with Twente since McLaren returned and their 2-3 derby defeat against Heracles Almelo proved that. Heracles totally outplayed Twente in that game for my money and thoroughly deserved their win. If hard-working Heracles can do that away from home just imagine what a well-organised Vitesse can do here!
I quite fancy Vitesse with draw no bet here, especially with Wilfried Bony returning, but instead of potentially missing out on value due to Vitesse lacking a bit of experience, I’m going to lay Twente here instead. Twente could win the game but I think there’s far more value in laying them at 10/11.
Verdict: Lay Twente Enschede at 10/11.
Barcelona vs Valencia CF – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Barcelona are generally priced rather short to win games and you could argue that they’re short here too. However, I think they’re quite generously priced here and I’ll explain why.
Barcelona are going to struggle in some games this season because David Villa is out. He is not the heartbeat of the team but he is the only natural striker that Barcelona possess and thus when he’s out, they miss the off-the-ball movement in the box and the finesse that he brings them.
However, I don’t see this being a game where that’s particularly applicable. Don’t get me wrong – Barcelona really do need a back-up option for David Villa going forward – let’s not forget that he’s the wrong side of 30 now – but this is only a real problem when facing sides that can defend.
Can Valencia defend? No – they can’t! They’re all over the place at all times and I think Barcelona can and will score freely here. Valencia, to their credit, will come to Barcelona to play football, to attack, and to score goals. Their recent run of form may even mean that Jonas etc. will take their chances and capitalise on some suspect Barcelona defending but they’re going to concede goals here, just as they did when they came here in the Copa del Rey recently, losing 2-0 on that night.
Barcelona could and should have improved that scoreline, too, but were too keen to avoid injuries, fatigue, and the possibility of conceding goals on the counter-attack so they wasted time. Since then, they’ve welcomed back Iniesta to virtually full fitness, which really helps. Xavi is a doubt here but I expect him to feature. Mascherano misses out here but Busquets is in the squad and Keita returns from the African Cup of Nations so I’m not concerned there. Pedro is out but so what – he’s all pace and work ethic; the quality comes from elsewhere. So yeah – I’m not concerned about Barcelona here, especially with the wonderful Messi in their squad, not to mention the impressive Fabregas.
Valencia miss Canales through long-term injury and Unai Emery has elected to leave Banega at home for this game. For me, this is a problem for Valencia as their midfield is their only strong area nowadays. True enough, he’s left lots of pacey workers in midfield to counter Barcelona but they have to battle Barcelona the way other clubs do and that rarely results well for the away sides – just look at Barcelona’s home record this season!
All in all, I really think that Barcelona will win this one with some ease, either 2-0, 3-1, or better. They’ve had an additional day to prepare for this game compared to Valencia and are a better side. Therefore, Barcelona beating the -1.5 handicap appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Barcelona to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Accumulator fodder:
Anderlecht, Club Brugge, Universidad Catolica, AEL Limassol, Tottenham Hotspur, AC Milan, AS Roma, Cerro Porteno, Porto, Sporting Clube de Lisboa, Celtic, Barcelona, Club Nacional de Montevideo.
Recommended bets:
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Adelaide United vs Sydney FC (5) 1-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs Sturm Graz (6) 1-0
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Westerlo (9) -1.5 handicap
Club Brugge vs Kortrijk (8) 2-0
Zulte-Waregem vs Standard de Liege (6) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Universidad Catolica vs Antofagasta (8) over 2.5 goals
Cobreloa vs Huachipato (7) 2-1
Colo Colo vs Union La Calera (7) over 2.5 golas
Colombian Primera A:
Itagui Ditaires vs Real Cartagena (6) 1-0
Cucuta Deportivo vs Atletico Huila (7) 2-1
Deportivo Pasto vs Envigado (5) 1-0
Deportes Quindio vs Patriotas (7) 2-0
Cypriot Division 1:
Anorthosis Famagusta vs APOEL Nicosia (6) 0-1
Nea Salamis vs Ethnikos Achnas (5) 2-1
AEL Limassol vs Ermis (9) -1.5 handicap
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Mlada Boleslav vs Banik Ostrava (7) 2-1
Bohemians 1905 vs Jablonec (6) 1-1
Teplice vs Viktoria Plzen (7) 1-2
English FA Cup:
Crawley Town vs Stoke City (5) 2-1
Stevenage vs Tottenham Hotspur (8) 0-2
Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6) 2-1
French Ligue 1:
Girondins de Bordeaux vs Olympique Lyonnais (7) 1-1
Saint-Etienne vs Stade Rennais (6) 2-1
Paris Saint-Germain vs Montpellier HSC (6) 2-1
German Bundesliga:
Schalke 04 vs VfL Wolfsburg (4) 1-2
Hannover 96 vs VfB Stuttgart (5) 1-1
Greek Super League:
Panaitolikos vs Levadiakos (7) 1-0
PAS Giannina vs Atromitos (5) 1-1
Kerkyra vs Doxa Dramas (6) 2-1
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panionios (8) 2-0
PAOK Salonika vs Aris Salonika (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
Israeli Ligat Ha’al:
Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa (6) 2-1
Italian Serie A:
Lecce vs Siena (6) 1-0
Novara vs Atalanta Bergamo (5) 1-1
Genoa vs Chievo Verona (7) 1-0
Cesena vs AC Milan (8) 0-2
AS Roma vs Parma (8) over 2.5 goals
Udinese vs Cagliari (5) 0-0
Palermo vs Lazio (6) 2-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Toluca vs Jaguares (7) 1-0
Puebla vs Morelia (6) 1-1
America vs Pachuca (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Dutch Eredivisie:
Groningen vs PSV Eindhoven (7) over 2.5 goals
AFC Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen (5) 2-1
FC Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar (5) 1-2
Vitesse Arnhem vs Twente Enschede (6) 1-0
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Sportivo Luqueno vs Deportivo Carapegua (6) 1-0
Cerro Porteno vs Cerro Porteno PF (8) 2-0, at least one red card in this game
Peruvian Primera Division:
Union Comercio vs Universidad Cesar Vallejo (5) 0-1
Sport Huancayo vs Real Atletico Garcilaso (8) 2-0
Cienciano vs Sport Boys (7) 2-0
Inti Gas vs Universitario Lima (4) 1-1
Melgar FBC vs Universidad San Martin (5) 1-0
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Krakow (6) 0-1
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warsaw (6) 0-1
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Uniao de Leiria vs Beira-Mar (6) 0-0
CD Nacional de Madeira vs Academica de Coimbra (7) 1-0
Feirense vs Olhanense (5) 1-0
Vitoria Setubal vs Porto (8) 0-2
Sporting Clube de Lisboa vs Pacos de Ferreira (8) over 2.5 goals
Scottish Premier League:
Aberdeen vs St.Johnstone (6) 1-0
Hibernian vs Celtic (8) 0-2
Singaporean S-League:
Armed Forces vs DPMM FC (7) 2-1
Woodlands Wellington vs Geylang United (6) 1-1
Spanish Primera Liga:
Granada vs Real Sociedad (6) 2-1
Athletc Club de Bilbao vs Malaga (4) 2-2
Sporting Gijon vs Atletico Madrid (7) 0-1
Real Mallorca vs Villarreal CF (6) 1-0
Levante vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (6) 1-0
Barcelona vs Valencia CF (8) 2-0
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Elche vs Celta de Vigo (5)
Las Palmas vs Gimnastic de Tarragona (5) over 2.5 goals
Recreativo de Huelva vs Hercules Alicante (6)
Swiss Super League:
Lausanne Sports vs Luzern (5) 1-2
Servette vs Grasshopper Zurich (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Swiss Challenge League:
Locarno vs Chiasso (5) at least one red card in this game
Lugano vs Stade Nyonnais (7)
Vaduz vs Aarau (7)
Winterthur vs Bruhl (6)
Turkish Super Lig:
Gaziantepspor vs Orduspor (7) 2-1
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor (6) 1-1
Eskisehirspor vs Karabukspor (6) 1-0
Besiktas JK vs Genclerbirligi (7) 1-0
Uruguayan Primera Division:
Fenix vs El Tanque Sisley (7) 1-0
Rampla Juniors vs Defensor Sporting (6) 1-2
Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Club Montevideo (7) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs River Plate Montevideo (8) 2-0
Welsh Premier League:
Bala Town vs Bangor City (7) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!