SSC Napoli vs Villarreal
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I must issue the standard UEFA Europa League warning here because it’s the only competition that comes close to rivalling international games for levels of unpredictability so don’t go throwing all your money on these games!
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game in Naples between SSC Napoli and Villarreal. A lot of people have been impressed by Napoli this season, myself included, but I’m not buying into the idea that it’ll carry on into their European form tonight – they’ve been very poor in European football so far this season.
Napoli are three points behind AC Milan in Serie A at the moment and in all honesty, I think their focus is on the Scudetto rather than the UEFA Europa League because it means more to them for varying reasons. Although the San Paolo crowd wouldn’t allow them to go down with just a whimper, I do think that Napoli won’t be particularly upset to go out of this competition so an unconvincing Napoli display maybe isn’t far away tonight.
Nonetheless, Napoli do need to be respected here as they enter this game on the back of a rivalry success over AS Roma, the first time that they’ve won away from home against Roma in many years, which is a good measure of how far they’ve come. The deadly trio of Lavezzi, Hamsik, and Cavani have lit up Serie A this season and they’re the primary reasons behind Napoli having a very good chance of winning Serie A, in my view. However, on the European scene, they struggle as much as any Italian side, if not even moreso. This side has won just once in six UEFA Europa League games despite a fairly straightforward group containing Liverpool, FC Utrecht, and Steaua Bucharest, requiring a last-ditch goal from Cavani in the final game against Steaua Bucharest to even reach this stage. They’ve looked susceptible in defence and generally just don’t fit in competitions like this. The problem is that I think they’re finally up against a side that will prove that so Napoli could be in trouble tonight, despite the intimidating San Paolo venue.
Visitors Villarreal still have some injury concerns but nothing that troubles me in a game like this. You could point to their form guide and say that they’ve lost two consecutive games, which is very accurate. However, I would add that one was a derby game at home to Levante and the other was an always tough trip to the Riazor so neither is “off the map” in terms of probability. Villarreal play some very good football and keep the ball well and have generally looked good in the UEFA Europa League so far this season, although more notably so at El Madrigal. Villarreal have struggled to score enough goals away from home, which is a little concerning here because Napoli can defend well. However, I’ve covered the away win with draw no bet as I don’t see a talented Villarreal side leaving Naples with a defeat – they’re simply a better side than Napoli, in my view, and it really should show here.
For me, Villarreal have more pace and precision than Napoli and are far more adept on the European stage than the hosts are so I have to favour El Submarino Amarillo here. Cazorla and Senna can dominate the midfield here and Nilmar is deadly on counter-attacks so for me, the away win with draw no bet cover at 6/4 appeals to me.
Verdict: Villarreal to win with draw no bet at 6/4.
Thursday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Metalist Kharkiv vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen – home win with draw no bet at 6/4.
Although Metalist Kharkiv haven’t played a competitive game of football for some time, they’ve been actively playing friendlies and have been busy in the transfer market, signing Argentinian playmaker Blanco from Atletico Lanus and attacker Cristaldo from Velez Sarsfield for hefty sums as they bid to become a leading force in Ukraine, which they’re not far from doing, to be honest. Since they burst onto the European scene back in 2007, they’ve only been beaten three times on home soil, one of which was an unfortunate scoreline and the others were due to not scoring and/or red cards. This Metalist side is very hard to play against away from home so don’t underestimate them here, especially with the likes of Villagra, Cleiton Xavier, Devic, and Taison in their team.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are having a good season in the Bundesliga but they’re not a particularly good side, in my view. They’ve got a decent starting eleven but if they lose any of those players then they look very vulnerable – just look at what happened when they took on Nurnberg away from home without creative winger Barnetta – they lost 1-0. Bizarrely, they sold striker Helmes in the January transfer window, leaving the burden with recovered Kiessling and an unconvincing Derdiyok – it’s not great, is it? They rely a lot on goals from midfield and generally rely on Barnetta and Augusto far too much but to be fair, they’re very good players. Leverkusen have a good defender in experienced defender Hyypia but he’ll have his hands full with Devic and Taison tonight so I think Leverkusen might struggle here, especially as they’ve only won once away from home in the UEFA Europa League this season.
I’m a bit concerned about Metalist’s lack of competitive games lately but I counter that with the fact that it’s going to be about -17 in Kharkiv, hence the game actually having been moved forward because it’s too fucking cold! Leverkusen will not find this easy whatsoever and as a result of that plus Metalist’s quality, I don’t see the hosts losing this one but they do have a good chance of winning, especially given their decent home form, so the home win with draw no bet at 6/4 appeals to me.
Team news – Metalist Kharkiv have doubts over Edmar, Bordian, and Gueye whereas Bayer 04 Leverkusen miss Ballack, Giefer, and have doubts over Vidal..
Verdict: Metalist Kharkiv to win with draw no bet at 6/4.
Lech Poznan vs Sporting Braga – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
I really wish that the Ekstraklasa was in operation at the moment because with some competitive match practice, I genuinely think that Lech Poznan would stroll this game, hence Lech Poznan to win at 13/10 appealing to me. However, they’ve only played friendlies, albeit a lot of them, and they’ve sadly looked a little below-par so I’m not sure what to expect here, especially after the recent ruling regarding crowd issues, hence the allocation of 30,000 only for this game due to safety fears in the stadium, 150 of which are allocated for Braga.
However, like in most of Eastern Europe at the moment, Poznan is bitterly cold and the Portuguese side will not find that weather welcoming whatsoever for blatant reasons so the hosts do have a shout here. Lech have been immense in this tournament so far this season, wherever they’ve played, and I fancy them to cause a lot of problems for their slightly more illustrious opponents today.
The bad news was that Lech parted with Peszko during the transfer window, who moved to Koln for a nominal fee and Lech will miss him. However, they’ve been busy themselves, signing Serbian striker Ubigarip from Spartak Subotica, experienced striker Slusarski from Cracovia Krakow, and most impressively of all was the signing of Murawski from Rubin Kazan, who will unfortunately miss tonight’s game. All of these signings, as well as the acquisition of Wolakiewicz from Lechia Gdansk, signal the club’s intent under Jose Maria Bakero and I think they’ll go from strength to strength if they keep him at the helm, particularly with Latvian sensation Rudnevs in attack and Belarusian playmaker Krivets supporting him.
Sporting Braga, on the other hand, are in a pretty bad way. They sold some key players in the transfer window – star striker Mateus to Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, number one goalkeeper Felipe to Flamengo – and now miss some important players for this game with experienced midfielder Vandrinho, one half of their key attacking duo missing (Paulo Cesar), and two important defenders Paulao and Elderson (Echiejile) both absent. I watched Braga against Porto lately and Braga lacked penetration and any general idea in the final third of the pitch. They’ve been conceding a lot of goals lately and look a shadow of the side that they were last season and I think this tournament has come at a bad time for them.
The weather doesn’t suit Braga at all, as they’ve publicly admitted, so I give the advantage to Lech here. However, with a lack of match practice, the 1×2 market is a “no go” for me. That said, over 2.5 goals at 6/5 looks very generously priced indeed, especially with Braga missing half of their defence and Lech missing Wojtkowiak, being a little rusty, and having the whole support of Poland behind them.
Team news – Lech Poznan miss Wojtkowiak and Murwaski whilst having doubts over Injac whereas Sporting Braga miss Vandinho, Paulo Cesar, Elderson, and Paulao.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Basel vs Spartak Moscow – over 2.5 goals at evens.
People are jumping on Basel for this game and I can understand that because they’re an experienced side in European football nowadays and they played some good football in the UEFA Champions League earlier this season. However, they parted with star defender Inkoom to Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk in the January transfer window and that’s dealt them a massive blow because their defence is already vulnerable so I’m not so keen on them here. Since returning from the winter break, Basel have won 2-3 at newly-promoted Thun and 3-0 at home to St.Gallen, although make what you will of that scoreline with Basel goalkeeper Franco Costanzo being voted man of the match…
I quite fancied Spartak Moscow to win this one but not only are they rusty for this game but they’re missing a lot of important players. Strikers Ari and Welliton both miss this game, as does creative midfielder Ibson and defenders Pareja and Parshivlyuk so Spartak are far from at full-strength here. Most of Spartak’s games so far in Europe this season have gone over 2.5 goals due to some silly defending and impressive attacking so I expect more of the same today despite their absences in attack because I don’t rate Basel’s defence without Inkoom. Similarly, Spartak’s defensive absentees should give Streller and co. an easy time in attack so for me, the best plan of action here is over 2.5 goals at evens, especially as five out of Basel’s last six games in Europe this season have gone over 2.5 goals.
Team news – Basel miss Huggel, Kusunga, and Dragovic whereas Spartak Moscow miss Ari, Welliton, Pareja, Parshivlyuk, and Ibson.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Besiktas JK vs Dynamo Kiev – away win with draw no bet at 5/4.
Call this one a hunch, if you like, but I think Kiev have a good chance here. I’ve waxed lyrical often about Besiktas’ superiority in attack in the Super Lig now due to some fantastic signings (i.e. half of the Portuguese national team) but they’ve not gelled properly and as a result, Besiktas have looked very poor in their last few games. The problem is that Besiktas’ only strength is attacking as their defence is weak and with defensive absences tonight and their attack not firing on all cylinders, I don’t see them overturning a good Kiev side tonight. Dynamo haven’t played a competitive game for a while but they impressively brought back Yury Semin as boss in December to whip them into shape and that he’s done, even recalling Brazilian starlet Guilherme as competition for Milevskiy and Shevchenko in attack. This Kiev side plays very well under Semin and will be even better if they manage to lure Olexandr Aliev back from Lokomotiv Moscow as the rumours suggest. Either way, however, the odds on a very well-organised Kiev side winning here with draw no bet cover look too generous to me.
Team news – Besiktas JK miss Ibrahim Uzulmez, Ersan, Cenk Gonen, and Nihat.
Verdict: Dynamo Kiev to win with draw no bet at 5/4.
Young Boys Bern vs Zenit St.Petersburg – away win at evens.
Over 2.5 goals at 9/10 appeals to me too here but my main call remains a Zenit win.
Why? Well, for me, Zenit are the best team in the tournament and I do think they’ll end up winning it. They lost Rosina to Cesena in the transfer window but they’ve got a superb team and an excellent manager, hence them winning every UEFA Europa League game thus far with great ease. The likes of Danny and Kerzhakov are too good for this competition and it really should show here despite Zenit not playing a competitive game for some time. My concern for the away win doesn’t come from Young Boys Bern, however – they’ve looked fairly impotent ever since Doumbia joined CSKA Moscow – but from the artificial turf, which has caused clubs problems here in the past. Young Boys Bern have at least played in the Super League lately so they have some match practice and they’ve got enough energy and experience to cause a potentially rusty Zenit side some problems here. However, I’d be lying if I said I thought that the hosts could match the visitors here as I rate Zenit as a class above Young Boys Bern. I wouldn’t touch it if the odds drop below evens but whilst they’re at evens or above, there’s value on a Zenit win in my eyes.
Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win at evens.
Sevilla CF vs Porto – both sides to score at 4/5.
A lot of people are calling over 2.5 goals here and I can understand that because both sides are attacking sides and that should be logical. However, something is holding me back here that I can’t quite put my finger on but I’ll try to explain it.
Both sides are attacking sides – we all know that. However, both sides have defensive managers by nature, and it’s shown a little lately. Manzano – well, you saw what he did with Mallorca’s home form last season – they were untouchable due to an iron defence and now that Serbian defender Dragutinovic is back after a lengthy absence, we may actually see a composed Sevilla defence for a change. In attack, Sevilla have looked somewhat predictable, however – there’s not enough spark unless Navas provides it – so I think they may struggle here. Porto are coached by ex-player Villas Boas and although Porto dominate most of their games in the Liga Sagres, it’s generally a case of taking their chances and counter-attacking very efficiently – they don’t attack from start to finish usually, hence the Portuguese media dubbing Villas Boas as “the new Mourinho”. Porto finally have Hulk’s striker partner Falcao back from injury but I don’t see him participating much here as Porto will most likely go 4-5-1. Hulk’s been a bit off in recent games but his talent is undeniable, as well as his ability to score from anywhere on the park, so Sevilla need to be careful here.
Both sides have talented individuals and enough firepower to score a goal apiece but I’m just not 100% convinced that there’ll be more than a goal scored for each team. I don’t think either cares about this tournament greatly and if either of them do then it’s Porto more than Sevilla CF because their manager is more keen to prove himself whereas Manzano is much more keen to avoid the Andaluscians eating him alive by performing well in the Primera Liga. Given that both sides tend to counter-attack well and each defence has its vulnerabilities, particularly to pace, I think backing both sides to score has some value but I’m still very unsure over the over 2.5 goals so approach with caution!
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
BATE Borisov vs Paris Saint-Germain – both sides to score at 5/6.
The trip to Belarus to face BATE Borisov is rapidly emerging on more and more places “not to go” for European sides as the rich club goes from strength to strength in a mini Shakhtar Donetsk mimic. The likes of Renan and Rodionov are a nightmare to play against and various different sides in the UEFA Europa League this season can testify there. BATE are a little unpredictable on the 1×2 front, however, hence me avoiding the very generous odds on a home win with draw no bet cover, especially after a lengthy break. Nonetheless, this BATE Borisov side is very good and they’re more than capable of giving PSG a rough ride here. However, PSG this season have been all about goals, especially Nene and Hoarau, so I think they’ll score here to give themselves an easier game in the second leg. PSG’s defence isn’t the best, however, and BATE do tend to score in their home games, something that they’ve done for seven consecutive home games in the UEFA Europa League, including scoring against the likes of Dynamo Kiev, AZ Alkmaar, and SL Benfica, so don’t underestimate the hosts here.
For me, this should be one of the more interesting games of the day and I have a funny feeling that we’ll see a lot of goals here. However, both sides to score at 5/6 remains my call for this one as it really should come in with the above in mind.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
LOSC Lille vs PSV Eindhoven – away win with draw no bet at 7/4.
A lot of people are lauding LOSC Lille and they deserve – they’ve been immense in Ligue 1 this season and have some fantastic attacking players like Gervinho and Hazard so they need to be taken seriously. However, I’m yet to be convinced by them on the European stage because their only real test came against Sporting Clube de Lisboa at home and they lost that game 1-2. Lille can score goals for fun when they wish to but defensively, they tend to leak goals at home and that has to be a concern against an experienced European side like PSV Eindhoven. The sale of Rami has affected Lille’s defence and it may show today against a very good PSV side, especially with Ola Toivonen in the form of his life. PSV have been a bit hit-and-miss lately however, with some flattering and some unflattering results but what has remained constant is their ability to score goals and win games with few exceptions. For me, this PSV side (which is at full-strength, incidentally) is very good and it’s going to take more than some talented attacking players to convince me that Lille will do the job here. I think this should be a good game but the pitch at Lille can mar games between good sidess sometimes so I wouldn’t bank on it being a good game necessarily! However, for me, an experienced PSV Eindhoven side winning with draw no bet cover at 7/4 with the knowledge that they’ve won all three of their UEFA Europa League away games already this season really appeals to me tonight – I just don’t think Lille will outscore them without PSV helping them greatly, hence my call.
Verdict: PSV Eindhoven to win with draw no bet at 7/4.
Leon de Huanuco vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla – home win at 11/10.
I said pre-tournament that I thought Leon de Huanuco of Peru could be the surprise side in this season’s Copa Libertadores so they’ll undoubtedly go out in the group stage now I’ve said it!
However, I stand by it as they were incredibly impressive in the Primera Division last season, especially at home as the altitude is nearly 2000 ft and that’s a bloody hard away game for any side – even fellow Peruvian sides! Leon de Huanuco did lose some players during the window – striker Seara left for America de Cali, experienced defender Rivadeneyra departed for Juan Aurich, star striker Perea departed for Deportivo Quito, and attacking midfielder Rodas left for Deportivo Quito too, all of which were big losses. However, they’ve signed a lot of players as replacements and although I doubt we’ll see the same quality as they showed last season, I do think that they’ll turn up and play their hearts out tonight at high altitude in their first ever continental game so the hosts need to be taken seriously here, despite Peru’s lack of legitimate threats for the Copa Libertadores trophy.
The other side of the coin is that Atletico Junior Barranquilla don’t tend to travel well, like most Colombian sides. They’re good, especially when it comes to containing other sides, but they don’t score enough on the road, hence their atypical predicament. They lost Panamanian midfielder Torres to Atletico Nacional de Medellin during the transfer window but largely kept hold of their players as big clubs do, although they added to their squad by acquiring most of Independiente Medellin’s defence. Interestingly enough, Junior sold defender Cambindo to their opponents tonight so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s fielded or not here. In Junior’s fairly brief continental experience, they’ve lost four out of their five away games due to not adapting to away games well and I think that’ll be instrumental again tonight.
Put these two sides on a level playing field with no geographical advantages and I’d side with Atletico Junior Barranquilla here. However, altitude makes a massive difference in South American football and with the hosts so eager to impress as it’s their maiden voyage in this tournament, I think Leon de Huanuco will sneak a victory and the odds are decent enough to take a punt on at 11/10.
Verdict: Leon de Huanuco to win at 11/10.
Cerro Porteno vs Colo Colo – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Two old and experienced South American clubs locking horns in Asuncion spells two things; cards and goals.
I wouldn’t enter the 1×2 market here if you paid me to because Paraguayan football has stagnated over the past couple of years and because Colo Colo have been dreadful so far this season. However, one thing that both sides have brought to their respective games is goals either via missed players, poor defending, or incisive attacking. Both sides possess good attackers with arguably the most prominent of Cerro Porteno’s attackers being ex-Bayern Munich midfielder Dos Santos and the most prominent of Colo Colo’s attack generally being the duet of Miralles and Paredes. Due to neither side starting particularly well domestically, both managers are already under pressue, particularly Colo Colo’s after a bizarre 1-5 humiliation against Universidad de Concepcion so I expect to see a lot of fire here. However, with Colo Colo having parted with defender Riffo to Santiago Morning, midfielders Sanhueza and Melendez to Deportes Iquique, playmaker Torres to Atletico Nacional de Medellin, and striker Campora and compatriot Quiroga to Huracan, they’ve looked a little short in depth and weak in defence so I think they’ll concede here. However, Cerro Porteno have also looked vulnerable in defence and with no altitude advantage in Paraguayan football, I think we’ll see an open and interesting game here. Although cards are likely to dominate proceedings, I think odds of evens on over 2.5 goals here looks appealing tonight, especially with Colo Colo also missing defender Cereceda.
Cerro Porteno have doubts over Madrigal whereas Colo Colo miss Cereceda.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
SL Benfica, Gremio.
Recommended bets:
Villarreal DNB and SL Benfica at 2/1.
Gremio and Leon de Huanuco at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
UEFA Europa League:
Rubin Kazan vs Twente Enschede (7) under 2.5 goals
Metalist Kharkiv vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
SSC Napoli vs Villarreal (6) 0-1
Anderlecht vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Lech Poznan vs Sporting Braga (5) over 2.5 goals
Besiktas JK vs Dyanmo Kiev (6) 1-2, draw no bet
SL Benfica vs VfB Stuttgart (8) 2-0
BATE Borisov vs Paris Saint-Germain (4) 2-1, draw no bet
Rangers vs Sporting Clube de Lisboa (5) 1-1
Sparta Prague vs Liverpool (5) under 2.5 goals
Basel vs Spartak Moscow (6) over 2.5 goals
Young Boys Bern vs Zenit St.Petersburg (7) over 2.5 goals
PAOK Salonika vs CSKA Moscow (6) under 2.5 goals
Sevilla CF vs Porto (5) both sides to score
LOSC Lille vs PSV Eindhoven (5) 0-1
Copa Libertadores:
Leon de Huanuco vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 1-0
Gremio vs Oriente Petrolero (9) -1.5 handicap, over 2.5 goals
Cerro Porteno vs Colo Colo (5) over 2.5 goals, both sides to score, at least one red card in this game
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Liga de Quito (6) 1-0
Finnish Liiga Cup:
IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku (5) over 2.5 goals, draw no bet
Singaporean S-League:
Geylang United vs Etoile (6) 1-2
Enjoy your free betting tips!