Stabaek vs Stromsgodset
FreeThere’s an awful lot of games that I like today but beware – a lot of them are away wins so don’t lunge wildly in!
Today’s featured game is the Eliteserien encounter between Stabaek and Stromsgodset. Stabaek are on a bit of a poor run of late with no wins in four consecutive games but have the opportune moment to turn it around today against a Stromsgodset side that are notoriously poor travellers, year after year.
Stabaek have struggled lately because of injuries, basically. The loss of experienced striker Nannskogg did them a lot of damage but he returns for today’s game, which is essential for them. They also welcome back holding midfielder Pontus Farnerud, which is yet another essential player for them. Stabaek haven’t been as strong at the Telenor Arena this season as they usually are, which is why they’re lurking so bizarrely close to the bottom of the table. They score plenty of goals, as we all know, but their defence has a tendency to be shambolic, which is why they tend to fail to make it count. Barring their last match, which resulted in defeat at home to Rosenborg BK, Stabaek have scored two goals or more for six consecutive games at the Telenor Arena so I’m not concerned about their potency. My problem with them is that they’ve only won three of those games because they’re the only sides they could outscore; the others they’ve all failed to outscore. Therefore, it’s always wise to take a Stabaek win against sides that don’t score many goals or sides that are missing strikers.
Fortunately for Stabaek, that’s exactly what they’re facing today. They’re hosting a Stromsgodset that have already lost six out of nine away games this season. In five out of those six games, Stromsgodset have lost by two goals or more. Much like their hosts today, Stromsgodset don’t adjust to playing on foreign soil (as opposed to their artificial turf in Drammen) well and tend to concede heavily away from home. Only one side outside of the bottom three in the Eliteserien have conceded more away goals than Stromsgodset have this season and that’s Start Kristiansand, who have conceded eight goals more than them although a good portion of that can be attributed to their 8-1 defeat at Valerenga Oslo last match. Stromsgodset are a good side that I like very much but they simply don’t travel well enough to take away points against good sides. They average conceding over two goals per away game and scoring a goal per away game, which isn’t good enough for this division. It doesn’t help Stromsgodset’s mentality that they’ve got a bad head-to-head record against Stabaek in recent years, losing back-to-back games against Stabaek last season, so I don’t fancy Stromsgodset here to begin with. When you then learn that hot prospect Marcus Pedersen misses this game through injury (he’s responsible for most of their goals) and his partner in crime Berget is a doubt, you wonder where Stromsgodset’s goals are going to come from. They meanedered their way to a physical victory at home to Aalesund last match without those two strikers but they were facing an out-of-form Aalesund side that aren’t scoring goals. Besides – games in Drammen are very different for Stromsgodset. Stromsgodset also miss captain Aas for this game, which furthers my doubt over their ability to take anything from this game today.
All in all, Stabaek have a lot in their favour today. The Gunnarsson-Nannskogg partnership in attack can be reunited at long last and Farnerud can return some muscle to the midfield. Telenor Arena is used to seeing Stabaek win this game with eight consecutive wins here against Stromsgodset, six of which have beaten the 1.5 goal handicap. Stabaek are simply a better side and should have ample opportunity to prove that today so my recommendation is to back Stabaek to win by two goals or more at generous odds of 7/5 as I don’t envision Stromsgodset scoring enough goals here to puncture Stabaek’s undeniable potency.
Verdict: Stabaek to beat the -1.5 goal handicap at 7/5.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
River Plate vs Tigre – home win at 4/6.
Although the odds aren’t as generous as I’d hoped, I still like the home win in this game tonight. River Plate are one of the biggest clubs in Argentina, as we all know, but have failed to perform to their own high standards in recent seasons because they don’t score enough goals. However, I think they’ve done enough to transform that for this Apertura with the captures of former Real Betis Balompie and Estudiantes De La Plata striker Pavone and also the signing of Caruso from Velez Sarsfield, who is a good striker but rarely finds himself fit enough to contribute. However, this now leaves River Plate looking like a good side again and although they’ll have to bed their new signings in, you have to fancy them at home in their opening Apertura game with their main problem all but resolved. They’ll be keen to avenge their horrendous 5-1 defeat here last season against minnows Tigre. Tigre have never been a good side in this division; they’re simply a hard-working side and boasted a couple of good finishers. However, with star striker Luna having left to join Ecuadorian giants Liga de Quito and goalscoring midfielder Morel having departed to join Colombian outfit Deportivo Cali, Tigre are suddenly looking all work and little talent. Tigre will not make this game easy for River Plate; they never make games easy for anyone. However, I think Tigre’s goalscoring threat has been removed and River’s has been increased so the odds on the home win could be decent value tonight.
Verdict: River Plate to win at 4/6.
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Boca Juniors – away win at evens.
Godoy Cruz had an excellent Clausura last time out because of one man; Federico Higuain. Well, he won’t be too much use in this game – Colon de Santa Fe bought him in the transfer window, thus returning Godoy Cruz to the status of an average side at the best of times. My bet is also aided by the fact that Boca have strengthened their side over the transfer window. You all know how good a side Boca are but their defensive ineptitude in recent seasons has hindered their overall displays massively. However, they’ve totally revamped their defence with the acuqisitions of experienced Luchetti, former Estudiantes De La Plata full-back Clemente Rodriguez, and centre-backs Caruzzo and Cellay. Boca also tied Juan Roman Riquelme down to a four-year deal at his home club, which will probably be the last deal that he ever signs as age is beginning to catch up with the talented playmaker. All in all, Boca are beginning to look a rather strong outfit again and it’ll be interesting to see how they perform in the Apertura as a result. Either way, I don’t envision Godoy Cruz being able to trouble them today but I do think Boca have enough to trouble them so taking the away win at evens could be a good bet tonight.
Verdict: Boca Juniors to win at evens.
Gold Coast United vs Brisbane Roar – home win at 5/6.
Moneybags Gold Coast United failed to win the title last year despite claiming that they would. However, they did manage to scare the usual A-League contenders into a fierce battle for top spot but Gold Coast were sadly found lacking. Gold Coast have brought in former Manchester United defender John Curtis and New Zealand goalkeeper Glen Moss to bolster their numbers as they aim to finally win the A-League title. They have unfortunately lost Miller’s experience and Vanstratten’s safe hands along the way but Gold Coast very much remain a threat in this league, especially at home where they won nine out of fourteen home games last season, averaging scoring nearly two goals per game and conceding less than a goal per home game. They need to improve their away form to improve their long-term prospects but that’s another story for another day.
Visitors Brisbane Roar had a dismal campaign last time out and although they were unlucky, they did bring some of it on themselves. Their financial problems were well-documented and as a result, Brisbane have revamped their squad for this season in a big way with twelve new signings and thirteen players lost. Brisbane have restructured their team so that they basically employ lessened quality for lesser wages and have sold youngsters Zullo and Oar to alleviate their financial issues. I don’t know how sound their plan is long-term but I’ll leave that up to them. What I do know is that those new signings are going to take time to settle and despite Postecoglou being a good enough manager to get the best out of his players, he’s not a miracle worker – they surely cannot be ready for this game! Brisbane aren’t as bad as their league placing last year made them out to be but at the same time they’ve made so many changes that nobody really knows where they’re at. All I can say about them is that they’re not going to be ready for the first few games of the season at least and this looks a bridge too far for the visitors with many new faces and a tough away game against a very good Gold Coast side.
The odds could be shorter so I think there’s some value here on the home win although do approach with caution as the A-League roster so far has proven to be somewhat hellish!
Verdict: Gold Coast United to win at 5/6.
Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense – lay Ceara at 11/10.
Ceara have really struggled since their iconic manager left for Vasco da Gama and have now gone eight games without victory in all competitions. Ceara are having those problems because they don’t score enough goals as a rule. Ceara had that problem when Gusmao was in charge but his tactics worked perfectly; each player gave their all in every game and they took their chances, usually having great success in keeping other sides out and being clinical in front of goal to boot. However, Ceara simply aren’t the same side without him and their recent games suggest that overwhelmingly so how Ceara are 4/6 to win this game is absolutely beyond me. They do have good home form in Serie A, yes, but for how much longer with such a bad run? I don’t fancy them at all here!
Visitors Atletico Goianiense are still rooted to the bottom of the Serie A table so I understand the long odds on them here but just one defeat in their past three games (including a win and a draw!) shows that Atletico are starting to put up a fight against relegation. They started this run by battering league leaders and general giants Corinthians 3-1 and have drawn with Guarani since then. Atletico are starting to score goals which immediately makes them a dangerous side because despite their league placing, Atletico are not a side that concedes many goals. Consider that only Vitoria from the eight clubs immediately above them have conceded less on the road and you’ll see what I mean. I’ll admit that Atletico have lost all five of their away games this season but that record won’t last forever and the signs of improvement are there for all to see. A bit of momentum and motivation for Atletico can do wonders, particularly against a demoralised and low-scoring Ceara side. I think you may see a very determined Atletico side because of Ceara’s demise and with that potential in mind, I don’t see how Ceara have earned odds of 4/6 for this game. For me, the only value here is in laying the newly-promoted hosts against their battling opponents tonight.
Verdict: Lay Ceara at 11/10.
Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo – home win at 6/4.
This is a very interesting bet and has the potential to be a good money-spinner if things go as planned. Atletico Paranaense are placed just outside of the relegation zone at the moment as per usual but their Serie A experience enables them to make themselves very hard to beat at home, even winning more often than not. They’ve notched up three wins in five home games this season and have only lost once thanks to strong defending and clinical finishing. They’ve won two out of their last three games including two clean sheets against Santos and Goias so they’ve got some strong momentum entering this game tonight, especially as they only side to puncture their run was high-flying Fluminense, who were treated to a very tough game indeed.
Visitors Sao Paulo have a lot of problems, however, despite being the better of these two sides. The departure of Hernanes is fatal; he was their everything in midfield and they’re going to miss him immensely as midfield was Sao Paulo’s dominating area. They’ve barely scored goals in this Serie A campaign away from home with an average of just a single goal scored per away game this season and although they don’t concede many either, it stands to reason that their away record is poor because they’re not scoring goals, hence just one win in six away games. Despite overcoming Internacional 2-1 at home mid-week in the Copa Libertadores, they crashed out on away goals and promptly sacked their manager Ricardo Gomes so the club is in charge of his assistant manager for this game as they’ve yet to appoint a new manager. Sao Paulo hate playing Atletico Paranaense at the best of times with just two wins in their last ten meetings with Atletico at either ground with both of their wins coming at home – they’ve lost two of their visits to Atletico and drawn three times so they’ve got another difficult task here tonight with that monkey on their back!
All in all, the scene is set for a potential upset. Atletico will smell blood as they always do against Sao Paulo and have enough momentum and home advantage to attack without fear here. Sao Paulo are leaderless and devoid of ideas in midfield, let alone in the final third, so they are poised to take a tumble. The odds on the home win are worth a shot either way at 6/4 with the above in mind, especially as Sao Paulo don’t score goals currently!
Verdict: Atletico Paranaense to win at 6/4.
Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria – home win at 4/5.
Ever since Gusmao (I should really call him “Midas” by now!) took over the helm at Vasco da Gama, they’ve looked an awful lot stronger. They’re a lot harder to beat, for starters, as Gusmao begins the transformation of big club Vasco da Gama into a resilient foundation before building on it with quality. They’re unbeaten in five consecutive games now with three draws and two wins and it’s primarily because their defence has kept three clean sheets along the way. They’ve won their two home games during that run, scoring at least twice in both of those games, and have managed to fend off both Flamengo and Gremio away from home by drawing with them. Vasco have significantly improved since the start of the season and are beginning to reap their home advantage so they shouldn’t be taken lightly here, especially with three wins in five home games this season and just one defeat along the way. Only Ceara and Santos have conceded less goals at home than Vasco this season so be sure to give them the respect that they deserve here.
Mind you, there’s not an awful lot wrong with Vitoria; they simply don’t travel well. This trait stretches back years but this side simply cannot play football away from home. The transformation between Vitoria at home and Vitoria away is unbelievable; it’s literally like two different sides. Vitoria’s defence is great on the road; they’ve only conceded five in six away games this season. However, the fact that they’ve lost three out out of those six games and have drawn the other three games should indicate where their problems lie; goalscoring. Nobody has scored less away goals than Vitoria have this season which again is a sharp contrast from their home form. It must be rather frustrating for Vitoria fans, I imagine, because they’re actually a very capable side. However, it’s hard to see their lifelong trait changing tonight after a tiring game mid-week against Santos in the Copa do Brasil second leg saw them lose the final 3-2 on aggregate. Can they pick themselves up here against an in-form and strong Vasco da Gama side? I don’t see it, to be honest. Vitoria won’t roll over and die here but Vasco should simply have too much for them tonight, much as most sides do when Vitoria travel to face them! Therefore, odds on the home win of 4/5 look decent enough to take to me.
Verdict: Vasco da Gama to win at 4/5.
Beroe vs Litex Lovech – lay Litex Lovech at 21/20.
Although Beroe have made a couple of losses over the transfer window, they’re still an extremely resilient force to face in Stara Zagora as they proved last season in the A PFG by conceding less than a goal per game and only losing a third of their home games despite being newcomers to the division. Beroe already have some competitive match practice this season following their UEFA Europa League excursion against Austria’s Rapid Vienna so Beroe shouldn’t be rusty. They also destroyed giants Litex Lovech 3-0 here last year so why the odds are so long for Beroe and so short for Litex is beyond me. I appreciate that Litex are considerably better than Beroe but not only is Beroe a nightmare away game for all A PFG sides but Litex have to do it without manager Chervenkov, who was sacked after Litex were knocked out of he UEFA Champions League by Slovakia’s MSK Zilina mid-week. Litex have also parted ways with goalkeeper Galato so I think it’s fair to say that Litex have a “mini-crisis” ahead of this tough trip so I don’t expect to see them at their best today.
Ultimately, this game should be a lot closer than the odds suggest and with Beroe such a resilient and strong home side, it’s hard to see them losing against a disjointed and leaderless Litex Lovech today. Therefore, my recommendation is to lay Litex today at decent odds although it’s amusing to see the bookies have learned ther lesson this time around – I placed the same bet last year at 5/2, if my memory serves me correctly!
Verdict: Lay Litex Lovech at 21/20.
Palestino vs Universidad Catolica – lay Universidad Catolica at 11/10.
I really don’t understand why Universidad are such heavy favourites here. They’re without a doubt the better of these two sides and are one of the giants of Chilean football, yes. However, Universidad have only won four out of nine away games in the Primera Division this year because South America is a place where no away win is frequent for varying reasons. Despite Palestino’s low league placing, their home record is as strong as ever with just one defeat in eight home games, winning four times along the way. Only Catolica’s bitter rivals Universidad de Chile have won here this season because Palestino are the strongest defensive unit in the division at home with just five goals shipped in eight home games. The last three games between these two sides have ended 1-1 when played at Palestino and that scoreline looks favourable again today with Universidad having conceded in every away game this season and Palestino not conceding many but still conceding against the better sides. Catolica’s form at the moment is flatteringly good because they’ve played a lot of home games lately – they’re still an average away side. I shouldn’t be able to lay Catolica at such good odds given Palestino’s consistent strength at home but I can and will be doing so tonight.
Verdict: Lay Universidad Catolica at 11/10.
OB Odense vs FC Copenhagen – away win at 11/8.
Both of these two sides have been competing in European football mid-week so do approach this game with caution. However, from what I’ve seen of both sides lately, I can only back FC Copenhagen in this game. OB have looked abysmal for two games in both defence and attack with wayward passes and no goals scored in either game. OB were playing Zrinjski Moster in Bosnia-Herzegovina a few days ago whereas FC Copenhagen faced a better side (BATE Borisov of Belarus) but were at home so their travel hours are significantly lower currently. OB have received good news; Djemba-Djemba looks set to stay with them and he’s instrumental in midfield for them. However, they have a few problems going by unnoticed at the moment and I think they might just get caught out by a superior FC Copenhagen side today, just as they were here last year. Copenhagen were troubled by BATE mid-week but still managed to outscore them because they have the winning mentality that all true champions possess. Copenhagen can always produce goals when they need them and have already proved their everlasting ability in the Superligaen by winning both away games played thus far. Copenhagen have simply got better players than OB Odense, in my opinion, and with OB undoubtedly weary from a long trip, packed fixture schedule, and small-ish squad, I have to favour the away win here at generous odds.
Verdict: FC Copenhagen to win at 11/8.
Chelsea vs Manchester United – both sides to score at 5/6.
Who will win this utterly meaningless game? Im not prepared to get involved in the 1X2 side of this game because this game can go either way between the two best sides in England. However, the angle that interests me is that both sides are lacking defensively at the moment. Chelsea have been atrocious at the back in recent friendlies and keeper Turnbull has been so poor that Ancelotti has already said that Hilario will start ahead of him today. Chelsea’s defence looks weak though and with Carvalho unlikely to ever play for Chelsea again and Alex injured for this game, Chelsea look vulnerable in the centre of defence as Terry doesn’t have a set partner. Chelsea also miss Bosingwa for this game through injury and Drogba will start the game on the bench for the reigning Premier League champions so Chelsea aren’t at their strongest for this game. Manchester United have looked pretty good in their friendlies – well, in front of goal at least! Javier Hernandez has been on fire although I still expect him to take six months to settle fully into the pacey English game. Sadly, Michael Owen is fit for this game and will be a threat to my bet because he’s atrocious nowadays. However, Rooney will play in the game so United should be able to capitalise on an unfamiliar Chelsea defence and second choice goalkeeper by scoring at least once. At the other end, United have problems of their own with Ferdinand out with injury and Evra unlikely to feature as Fergie wants to rest him for a further week. Neville is reported to be a doubt for the game and United also missing most of their central midfielders with Anderson, Hargreaves, and Carrick all ruled out. All in all, this game has the hallmarks of both sides scoring so taking that option at 5/6 looks the best option to me although I’d argue that placing United at evens to lift the trophy is a bargain for any final United are in!
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
FC Honka Espoo vs Jaro Pietarsaari – home win at 4/5.
Although Honka’s form has been patchy of late, they’re at least consistent with who they fail against so you can generally read who they’ll struggle against and who they’ll do well against. They’re a much better side than Jaro and have a great chance to prove it today in Espoo. Honka have already won five out of seven home games in the Veikkausliiga this season and average scoring two goals per home game so they should make themselves felt today. They’ve not been too impressive of late in defence but their potency is as strong as ever so I’ll give them their chances here. Jaro’s form chart shows three wins from four games, which is very good, but I’d argue that their wins came against poor sides. The two good and/or in-form sides that they’ve faced in their last five games are the two games that they’ve lost without scoring and they’re the games that interest me the most from their statistics. There’s no denying how good Jaro’s current side is, not to mention their manager, but they’re not yet at the level of Honka and that should show today, just as it has done for six out of Jaro’s last seven visits to Espoo at decent odds of 4/5.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win at 4/5.
Tampere United vs IFK Mariehamn – over 2.5 goals at evens.
Only KuPS Kuopio average being in games with more goals than these two sides today and although I’d have expected neither of today’s sides to be as high as they are in the overs ranking, that’s just the way it’s fell this season. Mariehamn have abandoned defence and developed a lethal touch of late and are on a strong momentum burst whereas tempremental Tampere United are in a bit of a decline following a strong start to the season. Five out of IFK’s last six games have gone over 2.5 goals and five out of Tampere’s last six games have gone over 2.5 goals so logic says that should happen today. Football doesn’t always work out as logically as that, I know, but these two sides are in such random form that absolutely anything could happen in this game. All I can bet on here is that there will be goals and the odds of evens on there being over 2.5 goals are far too generous to overlook today.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at evens.
VPS Vaasa vs TPS Turku – away win at 5/4.
I can’t substantiate this selection as much as I’d like but TPS are simply a lot better than VPS. TPS haven’t had a good campaign thus far but a 2-0 win at home to JJK Jyvaskyla last match should be the platform for them to start moving up the table. TPS love playing against VPS as they’ve won their last two trips to Vaasa and they’ve only lost once to VPS in their last eleven meetings at either ground. VPS have leaked seven goals in two consecutive defeats ahead of this game so morale is lowering. TPS are good enough to take advantage of that fact and with momentum on their side, 5/4 on the away win looks rather tempting today.
Verdict: TPS Turku to win at 5/4.
HJK II vs KPV Kokkola – away win at evens.
Four consecutive and deserved defeats leave HJK II in the relegation zone of the Ykkonen and they’re going to struggle to get out of it if they continue to defend so badly. Only lowly TPV Tampere have conceded more goals than HJK II this season and with ten goals conceded in their last four games, it’s hard to see HJK II having the right mentality to take anything from their game against KPV today. KPV Kokkola are by far the better side but have endured a poor campaign thus far. However, back-to-back wins for KPV against Hameenlinna and OPS Oulu respectively gives KPV some good momentum to bring into this game, not to mention two clean sheets. This could be the catalyst that starts KPV’s season going properly so I have to back the superior side to win this one today, particularly with HJK II’s defence playing so badly currently. The odds of evens on the away win are decent enough to take although I’d be more hesitant if the odds shorten because KPV are where they are in the Ykkonen because of inconsistent displays this season.
Verdict: KPV Kokkola to win at evens.
Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus – away win at 6/4.
Tokyo have been extremely hard to beat at home so far this season. In fact, they’ve been impossible to beat with seven draws and one win from eight home games. Is that a good or bad record? I suppose it depends on your perspective but for me there’s no way Tokyo can maintain their form because they don’t score enough goals. Their defence is solid enough but it’s games like today where they should struggle. They hosted Liga de Quito mid-week in some random worldwide competition which went to extra-time before Tokyo won it so their team should be tired for this game. They’re also facing one of the best Nagoya Grampus sides in years, probably since Petkovic was last there! Nagoya have won six out of eight on the road because they’ve got the best defensive record in the J-League away from home and they’re clinical to boot. They’ve won three out of their last four games so they take strong momentum to face a good but tired Tokyo side today so I have to give them their chances of winning today at 6/4.
Verdict: Nagoya Grampus to win at 6/4.
Molde FK vs Viking Stavanger – away win at 9/5.
I saw Molde’s trip to Germany a few days ago to take on VfB Stuttgart in the UEFA Europa League Qualifier and they were beyond unfortunate to not win the game against a very poor Stuttgart side. Molde were tenacious and strong throughout but as ever their defensive ineptitude undid their good work and they drew 2-2, losing 5-4 on aggregate. Only an inhuman side would not be tired after that display and although Molde are finally bringing back some long-term absentees, they’re still some way from the side that came second in the Eliteserien last season so I won’t be backing them for some time yet. Molde are without a domestic win in seven games and even lost at home to Start Kristiansand in their last home game, who have the worst defensive record in the division away from home this year. Molde aren’t converting their chances well enough to be taken seriously and they may just get punished today as they’re finally facing a side that can do damage to them. The return of prodigal son Erik Nevland has done wonders for the Viking Stavanger camp and although they’ve endure a couple of bizarre results lately, they remain a very strong outfit that are a tad short of luck at the moment. They won at Stabaek earlier this month which demonstrates their capabilities very well indeed. Let’s also not forget that Viking have won four out of their last five meetings with Molde at either ground, drawing the other game, so they do know how to beat under-performing Molde. Viking have won their last two visits to face Molde now in fact and yet bizarrely this is the one that they’ve looked most likely to win out of the three! Either way, the away win at 9/5 represents far too much value to overlook today for me with the above in mind, despite Viking’s below-par away form this season.
Verdict: Viking Stavanger to win at 9/5.
Haugesund vs Valerenga Oslo – away win at 6/5.
Haugesund have been absolutely untouchable at home this season with six wins and three draws from nine home games, scoring and impressive average of over two goals per game and conceding less than a goal per game. However, the key behind such a solid defence is often a solid goalkeeper, which Haugesund have in Per Morten Kristiansen. However, he misses the game through injury so I wonder if his absence will actually rupture the high confidence of Haugesund at home and leave them vulnerable today. Either way, he’s picked a bad game to be injured for as they face the most potent side in Norway currently – Valerenga Oslo. Haugesund also miss Nygaard, Orsal, Sorensen, and Pozniak for this game, incidentally.
Valerenga Oslo have a very good chance of being the first side to win at Haugesund this season despite the likes of Haested and Strand missing the game through injury. They smashed eight goals past a helpess Start Kristiansand in their last match and their only puncture in six consecutive games was their defeat at Aalesund, which was an extremely fortuitous win for the hosts on that day. Valerenga have won the other five games and have scored a total of twenty-four goals along the way, which is an average of four goals scored per game. Mo Abdellaoue is in the form of his life and simply cannot stop scoring goals with fifteen goals in nineteen appearances this season. Although I can’t deny that Haugesund are likely to give Valerenga a good game today, I can’t help but feel that Valerenga will outscore their hosts because of their tremendous potency at the moment and Haugesund’s missing goalkeeper so there could be value in the away win today.
Verdict: Valerenga Oslo to win at 6/5.
Cienciano vs CNI – away win at 12/5.
I can only offer little reasoning for this selection but it’s still very relevant, whether you take it or not. Cienciano have massive financial issues and are selling more players by the day. Their squad is so depleted tonight that I’m not even sure they’ll be able to name a full squad for this game so I have my doubts over them doing anything against anyone, despite their convincing home record this season. CNI haven’t been great on the road this season but they’ve won three out of their last four away games, including a win at giants Universitario Lima, so they’re not to be underestimated at the moment. Momentum favours the visitors and numbers are dwindling for the hosts so I quite fancy the away win at 13/5 tonight.
Verdict: CNI to win at 12/5.
Lechia Gdansk vs Ruch Chorzow – home win at 11/10.
This is rapidly becoming a public bet so I’d climb aboard whilst you can! Ruch have got many financial problems and have had to part with arguably their three best players – Niedzielan, Sobiech and Baran respectively – and they can count themselves lucky that they managed to keep hold of Sadlok! They’ve brought in replacements, of course, but they’re nowhere near as good as the departed players so Ruch have rapidly become a very average Ekstraklasa side in a short space of time. They’re travelling to face a Lechia Gdansk side that is on the rise and a Lechia side that is aiming to top even their excellent eighth-place finish last season. Lechia’s big problem is that they don’t have any real stars – they’re basically well-organised workers en mass and although that’s an effective manner of football more often than not, it’s not the style that is going to take them to the heights that they desire to be at. I have my doubts over their aspirations this season, however, becaused they’ve said farewell to some of their best players this summer i.e. Piatek, Cvirik so I’m not sure where they’ll end up in the Ekstraklasa at the end of the season. However, I still fancy them to beat Ruch because the nucleus of the team is still there and Ruch now lack any kind of attacking threat so Lechia really should be able to win this game by a goal or two today at decent odds of 11/10.
Verdict: Lechia Gdansk to win at 11/10.
Dolca Zabki vs Lodzki KS – away win at 13/10.
Lodzki KS signalled their intent to earn promotion to the Ekstraklasa this season by beating promotion rivals Pogon in an action-packed game 2-1. I was impressed not only because of the result but also as it was the opening day of the season and Lodzki KS didn’t show any rust – they simply got on with the job and won the game in clinical fashion. Dolzca Zabki will no doubt share a similar level of pride for holding Katowice to a draw in their opening game despite very nearly being relegated from Liga 1 last season. Dolzca played well in that game and earned their drew so credit must go to them. However, if Lodzki are serious about being promoted this season then these are the type of games that they have to win. Away games in Liga 1 are so difficult because the quality of the pitches is poor but I still think Lodzki have enough to win this one against a resilient but inferior Dolca side and the odds are good enough to take a chance on.
Verdict: Lodzki KS to win at 13/10.
Kalmar vs Trelleborg – lay Kalmar at 5/4.
After a disappointing start to their Allsvenskan campaign, Kalmar finally looked to be back on track following an impressive run of form. However, the mid-season break coupled with the introduction of their European committments has stretched this Kalmar side to the limit and their displays have suffered as a result. They had an abysmal month at home in July with the only side that they ovecame being Faroese outfit EB/Streymur in a 1-0 win. Kalmar were taken to extra time by Gefle in the Svenska Cupen, held by Dacia Chisinau of Moldova, held by Levski Sofia of Bulgaria, and were even beaten at home by Djurgardens. Kalmar’s limitations were violently exposed by Levski Sofia in Bulgaria mid-week as they were crushed 5-2 and thus crashed out of the UEFA Europa League. Kalmar still have to pick up the pieces, however, and with this being their fourth game in nine days, it’s beyond hard for me to see them doing it. Kalmar may have a strong head-to-head record against Trelleborg but this will be the last game that they want at the moment with Trelleborg really riding the wave of momentum with no defeats in four consecutive Allsvenskan games, winning all of them. They’ve hardly played the cream of Swedish football along the way but momentum is very powerful in this division and Trelleborg are looking very incisive at the moment so a tired and stretched Kalmar squad should have an uphill task to take anything from this game today. With the above in mind, Kalmar are too short for me so laying them should be a very good bet indeed today.
Verdict: Lay Kalmar at 5/4.
Lausanne Sports vs Yverdon Sport – home win at evens.
Lausanne Sports have won this fixture for two out of the last three visits of Yverdon Sport and drew the other game, keeping two clean sheets along the way. Lausanne Sports now have arguably a better side than they did previously and look strong contenders to be promoted to the Super League this season, especially given how strong they’ve been both domestically and in their European committments despite not supposing to have the depth to be able to do so! Lausanne have scored six goals in two Challenge League games so far this season and are yet to concede a goal so they’re certainly looking the real deal currently. Yverdon Sport had a decent away record last season because they scored a lot of goals, basically, which helped to mask their inability to defend. They’ve not impressed me this year either by losing at Kriens and beating a very youthful and revamped Aarau side. This is their first real test of the season and with last season’s leading goalscorer Gourmi yet to find his scoring boots this season, I don’t see how they’ll take anything from this encounter against a frankly superior Lausanne Sports side. I’d approach with some caution given Lausanne’s packed fixture schedule but they’ve handled it all immaculately until now so the home win at evens should hold some value today.
Verdict: Lausanne Sports to win at evens.
Accumulator fodder:
Banfield, Austria Vienna, Corinthians, Naestved, PK-35 Helsinki, Debreceni VSC, FK Ventspils, Liepajas Metalurgs, Skonto Riga, Ekranas Panevezys, Stabaek, Cerro Porteno, Wisla Krakow, Pogon Szczecin, Rubin Kazan, Dynamo Kiev, Caracas, Deportivo Tachira.
Recommended bets in no particular order:
Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Krakow at 2/1.
FC Honka Espoo and KPV Kokkola at 3/1.
Stabaek, Valerenga Oslo, and PK-35 Helsinki at 4/1.
Caracas, Corinthians, and Banfield at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below!
Argentinian Primera Division:
Banfield vs Olimpo (8) 2-0
River Plate vs Tigre (7) 2-0
Gimnasia De La Plata vs San Lorenzo de Almagro (5) 1-2
Velez Sarsfield vs Independiente (6) 2-1
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Boca Juniors (6) 1-2
Australian A-League:
Gold Coast United vs Brisbane Roar (7) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna (6) 1-1
Austria Vienna vs SV Ried (8) over 2.5 goals
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent vs Racing Genk (6) 2-1
Germinal Beerschot vs Cercle Brugge (5) 1-0
Brazilian Serie A:
Corinthians vs Flamengo (8) 1-0
Goias vs Palmeiras (7) 1-1
Ceara vs Atletico Goianiense (4) 0-0
Gremio vs Fluminense (6) 1-1
Atletico Paranaense vs Sao Paulo (6) 1-0
Vasco da Gama vs Vitoria (7) 2-0
Cruzeiro vs Gremio Prudente (6) 2-1
Bulgarian A PFG:
Beroe vs Litex Lovech (5) 1-1
CSKA Sofia vs Chernomorets Burgas (6) 1-0
Chilean Primera A:
Palestino vs Universidad Catolica (7) 1-1
Santiago Morning vs Cobresal (5) 1-0
Huachipato vs Santiago Wanderers (6) 2-1
Union San Felipe vs Universidad de Concepcion (4) 2-2
Colombian Primera A:
Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta Deportivo (6) 2-1, draw no bet
Deportivo Pereira vs Boyaca Chico (6) 1-1
Envigado vs Atletico Huila (6) 1-1
Real Cartagena vs Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota (5) 2-2
Cortulua vs America de Cali (6) 0-0
Millonarios Bogota vs Atletico Junior Barranquilla (5) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split vs Sibenik (7) -1.5 handicap
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Mlada Boleslav vs Marila Pribram (4) 0-0
Sigma Olomouc vs Usti nad Labem (7) 2-0
Slovan Liberec vs Jablonec (6) 2-1
Sparta Prague vs Banik Ostrava (7) 1-1
Danish Superligaen:
AC Horsens vs Randers (6) 1-2
Lyngby vs SonderjyskE (5) 0-1
Nordsjaelland vs Brondby (5) 1-1
OB Odense vs FC Copenhagen (7) 1-2
Danish 1st Division:
Hvidovre vs Fredericia (7)
Vestjaelland vs Roskilde (7)
Vejle vs AGF Aarhus (6)
Kolding vs Viborg (5) under 2.5 goals
Nasteved vs Hjorring (8)
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Universidad Catolica vs El Nacional Quito (4) 1-0
Olmedo Riobamba vs Deportivo Cuenca (5) 1-1
Emelec Guayaquil vs Barcelona Guayaquil (6) 1-0, at least one red card in this game
English Community Shield:
Chelsea vs Manchester United (5) 1-2
English Championship:
Cardiff City vs Sheffield United (7)
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo vs Jaro Pietarsaari (7) 2-1
Tampere United vs IFK Mariehamn (5) over 2.5 goals
JJK Jyvaskyla vs MyPa Anjalankoski (6) 1-2
Inter Turku vs KuPS Kuopio (5) 2-1, draw no bet
VPS Vaasa vs TPS Turku (6) 0-1
Finnish Ykkonen:
HJK II vs KPV Kokkola (7)
RoPS Rovaniemi vs Espoo (3)
PK-35 Helsinki vs MP Mikkeli (8)
French Ligue 1:
Montpellier HSC vs Girondins de Bordeaux (6) 0-1
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Paksi SE vs Debreceni VSC (8) 1-2
Gyori ETO FC vs Siofok (6) 2-1
Fehervar vs Vasas Budapest (7) 2-1
Irish Premier League:
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians (7) 1-1
Japanese J-League:
Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale (5) 2-1
Vissel Kobe vs Urawa Red Diamonds (4) 0-1
Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus (7) 1-2
Latvian Virsliga:
Jurmala vs Tranzits Ventspils (7) 2-1
Jauniba vs Skonto Riga (9) 0-3
FK Ventspils vs Daugava Daugavpils (8) 2-1
Jelgava vs Liepajas Metalurgs (8) 0-2
Lithuanian A Lyga:
Atletas vs Mazeikiai (6) 0-0
Siauliai vs Ekranas Panevezys (9) 1-2
Suduva Marijampole vs Vetra Vilnius (6) 1-1
Mexican Primera Division:
Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul (5) 1-1
Morelia vs Queretaro (7) 2-1
Estudiantes Tecos vs Puebla (6) over 2.5 goals
Dutch Eredivisie:
Vitesse Arnhem vs ADO Den Haag (6) 2-1
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs FC Utrecht (5) 0-0
Groningen vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (5) 0-1
NAC Breda vs AZ Alkmaar (7) 0-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Start Kristiansand vs Brann Bergen (6) over 2.5 goals
Stabaek vs Stromsgodset (8) -1.5 handicap
Molde FK vs Viking Stavanger (5) over 2.5 goals
Kongsvinger vs Honefoss (5) 1-1
Haugesund vs Valerenga Oslo (8) over 2.5 goals
Aalesund vs Tromso (7) 0-0
Norwegian Divisjon 1:
Sarpsborg 08 vs Sogndal (6)
Strommen vs Fredrikstad (5)
Mjondalen vs Lov-Ham Bergen (5)
Follo vs Bodo Glimt (4)
Bryne vs Sandnes Ulf (5)
Tromsdalen vs Alta (5) at least one red card in this game
Moss vs Nybergsund (6)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Trinidense (5) 1-0
Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo Luqueno (8) -1.5 handicap
Sol de America vs Olimpia Asuncion (6) 1-1
Peruvian Primera Division:
Cienciano vs CNI (5) 0-1
Sport Boys vs Sport Huancayo (6) 1-0
Universitario Lima vs Leon de Huancayo (7) 2-1
Sporting Cristal vs Juan Aurich (7) 2-1
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Lechia Gdansk vs Ruch Chorzow (7) 1-0
Slask Wroclaw vs Jagiellonia Bialystok (6) 0-1
Wisla Krakow vs Arka Gdynia (8) 2-0
Polish Liga 1:
Dolca Zabki vs Lodzki KS (6)
Sandecja Nowy Secz vs Flota Swinoujscie (6)
Pogon Szczecin vs Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski (8)
Romanian Liga:
Astra Ploiesti vs Gaz Metan Medias (6) 0-0
Poli Timisoara vs CFR Cluj (6) 1-1
Pandurii Targu Jiu vs Dinamo Bucharest (5) under 2.5 goals
Russian Premier League:
Rubin Kazan vs Tom Tomsk (8) 2-0
Sibir Novosibirsk vs Saturn Moscow Oblast (6) 1-1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Spartak Nalchik (4) 0-1
Singaporean S-League:
Woodlands Wellington vs Sengkang Punggol (4) 0-1, draw no bet
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Slovan Bratislava vs Dukla Banska Bystrica (7) both sides to score
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Triglav vs Primorje (5) 2-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Kalmar vs Trelleborg (4) 1-1
AIK Solna vs Brommapojkarna (4) 0-0
BK Hacken Goteborg vs IFK Goteborg (5) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Gefle vs Atvidaberg (5) both sides to score
Halmstad vs Elfsborg Boras (6) 1-1
Swedish Superettan:
Assyriska Sodertalje vs Brage (7)
Swiss Super League:
Grasshoppers Zurich vs Young Boys Bern (5) over 2.5 goals
Luzern vs Sion (6) 1-1
Thun vs St.Gallen (6) over 2.5 goals
Swiss Challenge League:
Lausanne Sports vs Yverdon Sport (7)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Karpaty Lviv vs Arsenal Kiev (7) 1-0
Tavriya Simferopol vs Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk (6) 1-1
Dynamo Kiev vs Metalurg Donetsk (8) 2-0
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Carabobo vs Caroni (5) 1-1
Caracas vs Monagas SC (8) 2-0
Deportivo Tachira vs Yaracuyanos (8) 2-1
Atletico Venezuela vs Atletico El Vigia (6) 1-1
Zamora vs Aragua (6) 2-1
Mineros de Guayana vs Real Esppor Club (7) 1-0
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Deportivo Italia (6) 0-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!