Start Kristiansand vs Odd Grenland Skien
FreeStart Kristiansand’s game at home to Odd Grenland Skien in the Eliteserien. Both of these two sides are very similar in the sense that they love attacking without fear and score lots of goals. This should be a superb game irrespective of the outcome so it’s going to be worth watching!
Start Kristiansand have been excellent so far this season with overwhelmingly convincing and potent displays. They’re the top scorers in the division currently with an average of three goals scored per game and have already won two out of their three home games whilst remaining unbeaten so far this season despite having already faced trips to Rosenborg BK and Brann Bergen, as well as hosting Molde FK. Ultimately, Start are mixing it up with the “big boys” of Norwegian football and are causing a real stir with their attacking tactics so hats off to them for breaking the mould. They’ve scored nine goals in their last two games, winning both games. They concede a lot of goals but they’re ultimately outscoring their opponents so you have to favour them whilst fortune does as they’ve generated a lot of momentum from their superb run.
Visitors Odd Grenland Skien make the short trip south to Kristiansand to take on their doppelgangers in a game that has probably arrived too soon for them to contribute to in a substantial manner. Odd Grenland tend to struggle away from their artificial pitch as a draw at Sandefjord and a narrow win at newly-promoted Kongsvinger provides an insight to. They generally rely on their dominant home form to carry them through the season whilst attempting to stifle opponents on the road. There aren’t many sides I’d back when facing Odd Grenland Skien but tonight’s visitors were humbled 3-1 at home by reigning champions Rosenborg BK. Whereas that isn’t exactly a bad result, it should prove to be demoralising for an Odd Grenland side that had been expected to have progressed since last season but that result coupled with their home defeat against Stabaek shows that they’re struggling to take on the bigger sides, unlike tonight’s hosts Start Kristiansand. Odd Grenland have got to pick themselves up rapidly for this game and I just don’t think that they’ll be able to match them blow-for-blow in what should be a goal-filled encounter.
There’s little between these two sides in terms of quality but Start have the bit between their teeth, tremendous momentum, and are averaging scoring three goals per game currently. Odd Greland are capable of matching that record but struggle on the road with goalscoring so I expect them to lose this one. A scoreline of 3-2 probably isn’t far off for this one but there should be value in the home win either way.
Verdict: Start Kristiansand to win at evens.
Wednesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Sillamae Kalev vs Levadia Tallinn – away win at 4/5.
You’ll rarely see me cover Cup games outside of the United Kingdom but this is one because it’s in the wonderful Estonia. It’s been some years since the Estonian Cup was in the hands of Levadia Tallinn and they’ll be pleasantly surprised to not be facing Trans Narva this year, a side they’ve played in this competition for three years running. Levadia’s bitter rivals Flora tend to win this competition but Levadia have shown desire to win it this season with an emphatic 3-0 win at Trans Narva in the last round. Levadia are far and away the best side in Estonia and as good a season as Sillamae Kalev had last season, they’re simply not that good as a draw at home to fairly good Nomme Kalju indicated all too well. Sillamae have been unreliable at home this season with a defeat at home to Flora, a narrow win over Viljandi Tulevik, a draw with today’s opponents Levadia, and a draw at home to Nomme Kalju. “Second season syndrome” is well and truly kicking in for Sillamae Kalev and I expect a dominant Levadia Tallinn to emphasise that to them today by winning this game.
I’d basically back Levadia against any other side in Estonia at generous odds of 4/5 and that is still applicable in today’s game too.
Verdict: Levadia Tallinn to win at 4/5.
Emelec Guayaquil vs Internacional – lay Internacional at 5/6.
I mean, come on, seriously – how the hell can Internacional be 5/6 to win this game? Ecuador is a nightmare venue for an away game and Internacional don’t travel well at the best of times! They’ve drawn both of their away games in the Copa Libertadores this season – one at a neutral venue in Uruguay and the other was a trip to Emelec’s compatriots Deportivo Quito – but Internacional have disappointed in both. Internacional struggle away from home domestically, let alone on the continent so why they’re such favourites here baffles me. Emelec haven’t been good in this competition at all but they’re a capable side and are strong at their lofty home ground so should make life difficult for Internacional tonight. Emelec are already out and Internacional are pretty much through irrespective of tonight’s result because they’ll win their final home game of the group either way and thus qualify for the latter stages of the Copa Libertadores. I’m expecting quite a non-commital display from both sides with most likely a boring draw being played out but there surely has to be value in laying Internacional tonight.
Verdict: Lay Internacional at 5/6.
Changchun Yatai vs Kashima Antlers – away win at evens.
China today hosts a do-or-die game for Changchun Yatai as they entertain Japanese giants Kashima Antlers. Changchun Yatai are realistically out of this competition and they know it but mathematically it’s still possible and there’s no way on earth that their fans will let them down easily for succumbing to a Japanese side. For that reason, Changchun Yatai will be entering this game to win it if only to prove a point. Unfortunately for them, they’re simply not a very good goalscoring side. They’ve scored ten goals in four Champions League games, that’s true, but their record flatters them as nine of those goals were against Indonesian minnows Persipura Jayapura. Changchun lost their other home game against South Korean side Jeonbuk Motors, showing their inferiority, something which I expect to be evident today. They don’t score many goals at home and thus the goals that they concede tend to be enough for them to lose their games, just like it was last match domestically at home to Beijing Guoan so I expect Changchun to get caught out today.
Kashima Antlers are one of the best sides in this competition, in my opinion, and four wins from four games in this competition goes some way to reinforcing my point. They’re massively experienced in this competition and it shows in every game that they play in. They’ve already qualified for the latter stages of this competition but again – Japanese sides will not lie down against Chinese opponents due to rivalry so I expect a full-blooded display from them today. Kashima are simply twice as good as Changchun so I’m really surprised that the bookies haven’t missed this opportunity to drastically over-price Kashima because they really should be 1/2 for this encounter.
There’s a big gap in quality between these two sides and the rivalry makes motivation for the game paramount. Ultimately, evens on the away win is a bargain here whether Kashima need the points or not so I’ll be taking this one today.
Verdict: Kashima Antlers to win at evens.
SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna – away win at 4/6.
The bookies don’t appear to have over-priced Austria Vienna for this game, which is interesting. If anything, Austria Vienna are under-priced here for a game that they should be at least 1/2 to win. Kapfenberg don’t have a bad record at home to Austria Vienna but the form guide at the moment says that Austria Vienna are unbeaten in their last five games and have won their last four games 1-0 each time despite facing some difficult games. They’re playing very effiiciently and are still in the reckoning for the Bundesliga title as a result. Kapfenberg have already lost seven home games this season, they’ve lost their last two home games consecutively, and are without a win in seven games. Therefore, a win for Austria Vienna is on the cards but at surprisingly generous odds that are rarely seen in the Bundesliga…
Verdict: Austria Vienna to win at 4/6.
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dnepr Mogilev – home win at 10/11.
As I’ve mentioned recently, Naftan Novopolotsk are one of the best home sides in Belarus. They consistently perform efficiently well at home as they showed in their opening Vysshaya Liga game against Partizan Minsk. Traditionally, they made themselves look like idiots in their only away game of the season but don’t doubt these guys at home as the bookies often do to their own downfall. Naftan have won this encounter for four seasons running and are utterly dominant at home so I expect them to do the same to poor Dnepr Mogilev again today.
Visitors Dnepr Mogilev are a good side but have yet to master the art of the away game. They’re generally good at home but have unconvinced both at home and on the road this season so are looking a little vulnerable currently. Dnepr’s strength tends to be not conceding many goals but as they’re not scoring at the moment, that strength appears somewhat redundant. Dnepr aren’t approaching this game with the right mentality or confidence to take anything from the encounter so a wounded Naftan Novopolotsk should make their home dominance count as much as they normally do at generous odds of 10/11.
Verdict: Naftan Novopolotsk to win at 10/11.
Minsk vs BATE Borisov – away win at 8/11.
Minsk may have won both of their two Vysshaya Liga games so far this season against two good sides in impressive fashion but they’re now hosting the daddies of Belarusian football at the present time – BATE Borisov. The visitors burst onto the European scene a couple of years ago with some spirited displays and impressive results ad as a result had clubs falling over themselves to buy their players. They’ve handled those sales well although it remains to be seen how they do this season without playmaker Krivets, who was transferred to Poland’s Lech Poznan during the transfer window. Nonetheless, BATE Borisov are simply the best side in this league as they prove every year. Bookies normally price them about right i.e. 1/3 but appear to have laid off doing that for this game for reasons I cannot fathom. BATE have won all five trips that they’ve ever made to face Minsk and should do so again today. Minsk appear set for an unprecedented good season given their impressive start but this is one side they won’t be finishing above because if they do then they’ve won the league. 8/11 on the away win here is very generous indeed so accumulate this one where possible!
Verdict: BATE Borisov to win at 8/11.
Zulte-Waregem vs Club Brugge – away win at 8/11.
I’ve recommended going against Zulte-Waregem for one or two weeks now due to the absence of Berrier and it’s paying huge dividends as the hosts can’t play without him and are now utterly devoid of momentum, confidence, and any level of potency so they’re basically sitting ducks for each and every side. They’ll simply be glad to ride out this Eerste Klasse campaign and build towards next season. Club Brugge obviously still have ambitions for their current campaign and are one of the best sides in Belgium. They claimed a valuable 2-2 draw at Anderlecht last match, which will have boosted momentum, and affirms their place amongst the top sides in the Eerste Klasse hierachy. There’s a real contrast of interest and ability here and 8/11 is too long for the away win in this game, which I personally believe should be something like 1/2 or 2/5 given how abjectly Zulte have handled Berrier’s loss and how superior Club Brugge are.
Verdict: Club Brugge to win at 8/11.
Slavia Sofia vs Litex Lovech – away win at evens.
Slavia Sofia are such a strong home side that I rarely go against them. However, backing Litex Lovech in the A PFG is a rare pleasure that I’m not going to overlook. Slavia have won eight out of eleven at home in the A PFG this season and have won four consecutive games so they’re playing very well. They’re not amongst the likes of Litex, Levski, and CSKA in Bulgaria but they are amongst the chasing pack. Slavia tend to focus on thei defence rather than their attack unlike the giants of the A PFG and it does work to their advantage sometimes. However, the last time they tried this with Litex they were humiliated 3-0 at home by the title challengers so they’ll be wary of hosting them again today.
Litex Lovech are unbeaten in five games, winning four times along the way. They annihlated a presentable Cherno More Varna 4-0 last match so they bring a lot of momentum and confidence into this game as a result. They’re three points clear at the top of the table with a game in hand and with just six games remaining after this one, a win today would leave Litex in a very commanding position to win the A PFG. They’ll have taken a real boost from the fact that Lokomotiv Sofia bottled their game at home to Minior Pernik by drawing 1-1, thus handing the impetus to Litex on a plate.
I cannot possibly see Litex having a better chance to shatter a stiff Slavia resolve and you’ll not find better odds on Litex to win a game in this division other than at evens so the away win has to be worth a tentative punt today.
Verdict: Litex Lovech to win at evens.
Beroe vs Levski Sofia – lay Levski Sofia at evens.
This is a classic example of the bookies pricing a side by their name. Levski Sofia have been truly awful of late hence them being fifth in the table, something virtually unheard of in the Levski camp. They’ve got such a capable side but one win in four games says that they’re nowhere near their best. They’ve lost at rivals Lokomotiv Sofia, drawn blank at home to bitter rivals CSKA Sofia, and drawn at Chernomorets Burgas lately so they’re just not firing on all cylinders. They’ve only scored three goals in four games so that lends some reasoning as to why they’re getting nowhere fast. Levski have won less than half of their away games this season so why they’re 8/13 to win at Beroe is utterly beyond me.
Beroe are not a great side – they’re like the Stoke City of the A PFG; bloody hard to beat! Beroe are unbeaten in five games so they bring an awful lot of momentum into this game which naturally makes them even harder to beat. They’ve won their last two home games in all competitions consecutively without conceding a goal despite hosting CSKA Sofia in one of those games. They’re basically a very tough side to play against and tend to yield a lot of success against sides that don’t score enough goals or sides that are lacking in confidence, two things that Levski have problems with currently.
How on earth we can get evens on laying an away side when the home side has only lost once on their own turf this season is beyond me. Only league leaders Litex have conceded less goals at home than Beroe have and they’re playing some very solid football so laying Levski Sofia today at evens looks an unbelievable gift.
Verdict: Lay Levski Sofia at evens.
Aalborg BK vs OB Odense – home win at 6/4.
We were successful with going against OB Odense the other day due to a lack of Eric Djemba-Djemba in midfield and I’m more than happy to do the same again. OB Odense are falling apart without him in their ranks as it significantly weakens their side every time they play without him, which is a classic example of a side built on a strong unit rather than a strong unit with individual brilliance from various angles. OB Odense have lost three out of their last four games and are on a slippery slope downwards without their Cameroonian holding midfielder so I don’t see them doing anything today.
It’s a bit of a risk to have Aalborg BK winning this game because they’ve only won half of their home games in the Superligaen this season and don’t even average scoring a goal per home game. However, they’re unbeaten in six games so they’ve got good momentum and they’ve scored in all of those games so I’m confident they’ll get at least one tonight. So long as Aalborg take the lead in this game then they should hold it and win. If they fall behind then I certainly wouldn’t take them in-play due to their goalscoring disadvantage but at 6/4 the home win has to be worth a punt against a demoralised and lacklustre OB Odense.
Verdict: Aalborg BK to win at 6/4.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal – away win at 5/4.
There’s an overwhelming factor behind this bet today and that can be summed up in one word; tiredness. Tottenham Hotspur played 120 minutes on sunday against Portsmouth in the FA Cup Semi-Final and despite pummelling Portsmouth for the majority of the encounter, they still ended up losing the game. This can have various adverse affects on Spurs with the hosts now tired, dejected, and questioning their own ability with their strikers unable to score a goal despite having numerous chances to do so. Tottenham aren’t as good as Arsenal yet; they know that. They need a good run up to the game with their strikers in-form to do damage to Arsenal and they currently have neither. They’ve got the demoralising factor that Man City are absolutely cruising into the fourth place spot in the Premier League thanks to some emphatic victories and Tottenham now have the arduous task of taking points of Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United respectively so if Spurs enter this game with any kind of confidence then Harry Redknapp must be some kind of God, particularly with Spurs missing vital midfielder Wilson Palacios for this game.
Arsenal will have taken a lot of confidence following Manchester United dropping points at Ewood Park on sunday and will be raring to go in this game as a win will take them above the reigning champions. Arsenal have already won eight out of sixteen away games this season and we all know how well they’re playing currently. I’m concerned about backing a side that has a useless prat like Bendtner up front on his own but he’s done ok, to his credit, and Arsenal supposedly have long-term absentee Robin Van Persie available for this game so Arsenal will take great heart from that. They’ll miss the incisive runs of Arshavin for this game but they’ve got enough to take apart a tired and dejected Spurs side today.
As if you didn’t know already, this game is a derby so do approach with caution. However, there’s got to be value on the away win at 5/4 in light of the above information.
Verdict: Arsenal to win at 5/4.
Sochaux vs Olympique de Marseille – lay Olympique de Marseille at 11/10.
Olympique de Marseille have lost eight out of their last nine visits here in all competitions so that really should tell you how much of a bogey ground this is for them (and indeed most Ligue 1 sides) so why they’re such favourites for this one is beyond me. Hell, they’ve not even scored here in their last two visits! They’re playing some good football, admittedly, and momentum is strong in their camp currently, particularly with them being top of the league. However, they struggle on the road because they concede so many goals which hinders their impressive goalscoring form away from home. They’ve only won twice in their five away games in Ligue 1 since returning from the winter break so I really don’t rate their chances here today. Sochaux haven’t been playing well of late, I’ll admit that freely as that’s where the risk in this bet is. However, the fact that they’ve won eight out of fifteen home games this season tells you how strong they are at home. Not just that – they’re always strong at home, no matter who they face. I’d prefer Sochaux to be in better form to be more confident about this selection but ultimately I expect the voodoo curse of Marseille on this ground to provide the backing on this bet instead of solid recent form from Sochaux. No side has an easy ride here and Marseille are tempremental enough to draw this game so I think laying the visitors potentially bears some good value tonight.
Verdict: Lay Olympique de Marseille at 11/10.
Haugesund vs Aalesunds – away win at 6/4.
Newly-promoted Haugesund are the only one of the three sides promoted that have taken points in the Eliteserien. However, the only side they’ve beaten was fellow promoted side Honefoss so they’re not quite Eliteserien standard as of yet. They don’t condede many goals at home but they tend to struggle to score goals so they’re going to find today’s game hard as a result, particularly against an in-form Aalesunds. Haugesund are in this league to enjoy themselves as they appreciate the fact that their stay in this league will most likely be short-lived. I admire their realistic outlook although question the motivation behind their players with those words from their manager echoing in their ears but we’ll see how they stand at the end of the season.
I don’t normally back Aalesunds away but they did me proud last time out and they’ve been superb this season. Grumpy Kjetil Rekdal has certainly got his side playing some very efficient football which is why Aalesunds are the surprising name at the top of the Eliteserien following four wins and one draw from five games. They’ve won both of their away games whilst scoring four times and conceding just once so they’re certainly becoming a very difficult side to play against. Rekdal’s tactics are usually spot-on and their displays this season show that very well indeed considering that Aalesunds should really be battling against relegation, in my opinion. Aalesunds have scored goals for fun this season against both good sides and poor sides so nothing is fazing them currently. With such a mass of momentum ushering Aalesunds into this game and an outstanding but pedantic Rekdal directing his team like troops on a battlefield, it’s hard to see them not take advantage of the fact that they’re facing an inferior side that have little to bring into the game.
Either way, the away win for this game looks to bear significant value whilst Aalesunds hold their excellent run of form.
Verdict: Aalesunds to win at 6/4.
Accumulator fodder:
Jeonbuk Motors, Salzburg, Sturm Graz, Anderlecht, Cherno More Varna, Hajduk Split, Slaven Koprivnica, Dinamo Zagreb, FC Copenhagen, Rosenborg BK, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Helsingborgs, Basel, Winterthur.
Recommended bets:
Levadia Tallinn, Austria Vienna, Atletico Madrid, and Rosenborg BK at 6/1.
Austria Vienna, Salzburg, and Sturm Graz at 3/1.
Anderlecht, BATE Borisov, and Naftan Novopolotsk at 4/1.
Club Brugge, Cherno More Varna, and Dinamo Zagreb at 4/1.
Slaven Koprivnica, Atletico Madrid, Rosenborg BK, and Basel at 4/1.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Copa Libertadores:
Emelec Guayaquil vs Internacional (6) 0-0
Racing Club Montevideo vs Corinthians (5) 1-2
Universidad Catolica vs Flamengo (6) 1-1, at least one red card in this game
Asian Champions League:
Changchun Yatai vs Kashima Antlers (6) 0-1
Melbourne Victory vs Beijing Guoan (5) 1-0
Kawasaki Frontale vs Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma (6) 2-1
Jeonbuk Motors vs Persipura Jayapura (10) -1.75 handicap
Esteghlal vs Al Ahli (6) 1-0
Al Wahda vs Zob Ahan (6) 1-2
Al Gharafa vs Al Jazira (7) 1-0
Al Ittihad vs Bunyodkor (6) 1-0
Austrian Bundesliga:
Salzburg vs SV Ried (8) over 2.5 goals
Wiener Neustadt vs SV Mattersburg (6) over 2.5 goals
Sturm Graz vs Austria Karnten (8) under 2.5 goals
SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (7) 0-1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga:
Torpedo Zhodino vs Shakhtyor Soligorsk (6) 1-1
Belshina vs Dinamo Brest (7) 0-1
Naftan Novopolotsk vs Dnepr Mogilev (7) 2-1
Partizan Minsk vs Vitebsk (5) 1-0
Minsk vs BATE Borisov (7) 1-2
Neman Grodno vs Dinamo Minsk (5) 1-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Anderlecht vs Kortrijk (8) under 2.5 goals
AA Gent vs Sint-Truiden (7) 2-1
Zulte-Waregem vs Club Brugge (8) 0-2
Westerlo vs Lokeren (4) 1-0
Cercle Brugge vs Mechelen (6) 1-1
Belgian Tweede Klasse:
Ronse vs Beveren (5)
Antwerp vs Eupen (6)
Tournai vs KVSK United (6)
Standaard Wetteren vs Tubize (5)
Liege vs Tienen (4)
OH Leuven vs Red Star Waasland (5)
Dender vs Oostende (6)
Lierse SK vs Boussu Dour Borinage (7)
Bulgarian A PFG:
Slavia Sofia vs Litex Lovech (6) 0-1
Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Mezdra (8) 2-0
Sportist Svoge vs Pirin Blagoevgrad (5) 0-1
Beroe vs Levski Sofia (6) 1-1
Croatian Prva Liga:
Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 (8) 2-0
Cibalia Vinkovci vs Sibenik (6) 1-0
NK Zagreb vs Karlovac (6) 0-0
Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Medimurje (6) 2-1
Rijeka vs Croatia Sesvete (7) 1-0
Inter Zapresic vs Osijek (5) 1-1
Slaven Koprivnica vs Zadar (7) 2-0
Varteks Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb (8) 0-2
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Marila Pribram vs Mlada Boleslav (6) 0-0
Danish Superligaen:
Midtylland vs AGF Aarhus (6) 2-1
Aalborg BK vs OB Odense (6) 1-0
Silkeborg vs Randers (5) 0-1
FC Copenhagen vs Esbjerg (8) 2-0
Danish 1st Division:
Vestjaelland vs Roskilde (6)
Skive vs Hvidovre (4)
Kolding vs Thisted (5)
English Premier League:
Aston Villa vs Everton (6) 1-1
Wigan Athletic vs Portsmouth (5) 1-0
Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal (7) 1-2
French Ligue 1:
Le Mans vs Girondins de Bordeaux (4) 1-1
Sochaux vs Olympique de Marseille (5) 1-1
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Start Kristiansand vs Odd Grenland Skien (7) over 2.5 goals
Viking Stavanger vs Tromso (6) 1-1
Kongsvinger vs Lillestrom (5) 0-1
Haugesund vs Aalesunds (6) 1-2
Rosenborg BK vs Brann Bergen (8) -1.75 handicap, at least one red card in this game
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United vs Rangers (5) 1-1
Singaporean S-League:
Home United vs Balestier Khalsa (7) 2-0
Spanish Primera Liga:
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo Xerez (8) -1.75 handicap
Racing Santander vs Espanyol (4) 0-1
Real Zaragoza vs Real Mallorca (6) 1-0
Osasuna vs Malaga (7) 1-0
Barcelona vs Deportivo La Coruna (8) 2-1
Swedish Allsvenskan:
Atvidabergs vs Helsingborgs (7) 0-2
Malmo vs BK Hacken Goteborg (7) 1-0
AIK Solna vs Halmstads (4) 0-0
Swiss Super League:
Basel vs St.Gallen (9) 2-0
Bellinzona vs FC Zurich (5) 0-1
Luzern vs Sion (6) 2-1
Swiss Challenge League:
Biel-Bienne vs Lausanne Sports (7)
Gossau vs Locarno (4)
Lugano vs Wohlen (7)
Le Mont vs Kriens (6)
Vaduz vs Thun (5)
Winterthur vs Stade Nyonnais (8)
Yverdon Sport vs Servette (6)
Ukrainian Premier League:
Obolon Kiev vs Dynamo Kiev (7) 1-2
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk vs Metalurg Zaporizhya (7) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!