Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Haukar Hafnarfjordur
FreeFirst of all, a MASSIVE congratulations to England U17 for winning the UEFA European U17 Championships against a very good Spain U17 side in Liechtenstein yesterday. The English side performed heroics by coming from behind to win 2-1 so a big congratulations to them. Incidentally, congratulations to anyone who took me up on the recommendation of England U17 to win it at 5/2!
Anyway, today’s featured game is the Urvalsdeild game between Stjarnan Gardabaer and Haukar Hafnarfjordur. Stjarnan Gardabaer are notoriously good at home and newly-promoted visitors Haukar Hafnarfjordur are yet to establish themselves as a decent Urvalsdeild game so should have a very tough game tonight.
Stjarnan Gardabaer haven’t won since the opening day of the season but they’ve already notched up six goals in two home games, thus proving their capabilities. They demolished UMF Grindavik on the opening day of the Urvalsdeild and followed that result up with a respectable 2-2 draw at home against giants KR Reykjavik. Stjarnan aren’t great believers in defending but they compensate for that by scoring a lot of goals, particularly at home, so they’re a good side to rely upon against the majority of the Urvalsdeild. They put up a good display at newly-promoted Selfoss last match by coming from behind to draw 2-2 so their belief is as strong as ever, as is their potency. Halldor Bjornsson has been instrumental in prolonging their potency with three goals scored already in Stjarnan’s four games so will most likely be key in their side’s success tonight, should they win the game.
Visitors Haukar are the lesser known of the two Hafnarfjordur sides with giants FH being the notorious side. Haukar have looked every inch the misfits this season too with three defeats and one draw in their first four Urvalsdeild games. Haukar have lost their last three games consecutively without scoring a goal, which is a massive problem that Haukar really shouldn’t be suffering from at this stage of the season. They’ve been hammered by fellow newly-promoted side Selfoss, annihlated by an average IBV Vestmannaeyjar, and even lost their local derby with an out-of-sorts FH during that run so Haukar morale is low currently. The only side they’ve scored against this season was KR Reykjavik and whereas that’s impressive on paper, we all know that KR can’t defend for shit. To be blunt, Haukar have got a lot of problems with surviving in this division because all the sides around them are either better than they are or are playing better than they are. Even fellow newly-promoted side Selfoss have put themselves around much better than Haukar so I really fear for the survival of the minnows. Truth be told, they’ll probably be the side that joins UMF Grindavik in the 1.Deild next season is trends continue and I don’t see their season getting any better tonight with the difficult trip to Gardabaer looming large.
Only Fylkir Reykjavik have scored as many as Stjarnan Gardabaer have this season so that should tell you how dangerous the hosts tonight are in front of goal. They score goals wherever they go which compensates for some abject defending and makes them a very dangerous side to play against in general. Haukar aren’t offering anything in front of goal so you have to feel that they’ll be beaten comfortably tonight. My recommendation for this bet is not because I deem 4/7 good value odds because generally speaking – they’re not. However, by my reckoning, Stjarnan’s dominance at home and potency should leave them at 2/5 at least for this game so 4/7 is a bargain with that in mind. It may even be worth looking at Stjarnan on the handicap because they’re more than capable of strolling to victory here tonight.
Verdict: Stjarnan Gardabaer to win at 4/7.
Monday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Inter Turku vs AC Oulu – lay Inter Turku at evens.
This is a bold call so be careful here. I’m basically looking to take advantage of Inter Turku’s various problems at the moment, namely that they leak goals for fun and don’t score many. They’re still twice the side that AC Oulu are but they’re not looking the part whatsoever. A mid-week win against KPV Kokkola in the Suomen Cup was a tough battle for them, eventually grinding out the win with ten men in extra time but it’s far from an ideal preparation for a tough home game with a resilient AC Oulu. Don’t get me wrong here – AC Oulu really aren’t a good side. However, their energy and tenacity makes them a hard side to beat if you’re not playing well and Inter Turku certainly aren’t playing well. Inter have only won once in six Veikkausliiga games this season so why they’re 4/6 to beat AC Oulu I’m not sure, other than that they’re a better side quality-wise, of course. So long as AC Oulu present a resilient force and don’t concede early in this game then this bet has a good chance of being a good value bet today because AC Oulu are used to this type of poor form – they battle away irrespective of their form and thus have some mental strength.
Verdict: Lay Inter Turku at evens.
Keflavik vs Selfoss – home win at 4/9.
Simple reasoning – odds are too long here. Keflavik are so much better than Selfoss that it’s unreal. Keflavik are looking the real deal this season and the fact that they’ve conceded just once in three wins and one draw says that they’re strong at the back. Newly-promoted Selfoss concede goals wherever they go and I doubt they’ll score against a solid Keflavik backline. In a bigger league, odds here on the home win would be 1/3 so Keflavik look a good team to back tonight as either part of an accumulator or as a single.
Verdict: Keflavik to win at 4/9.
Valur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik – away win at 15/8.
Despite Valur Reykjavik winning their first Urvalsdeild game last match at UMF Grindavik, I’m not convinced that they’re back to their usual selves. Rumours are strong currently that all is most certainly not well in the Valur camp and they’ve got financial difficulties so morale is low and performances are suffering as a result. I backed Valur last match against Grindavik because it’s one of only two sides in the Urvalsdeild I’d feel comfortable backing them against (the other being Haukar Hafnarfjordur) currently due to the respective impotence of Grindavik and Haukar. Valur may have taken positives from the result and they are a capable side but their problems are overwhelming currently so I don’t place any faith in them whatsoever at the moment.
Visitors Fylkir Reykjavik are having a very good campaign to further last year’s achievements. They’ve been a constant threat wherever they’ve played and are the only side to score against a strong Keflavik side thus far so they’re certainly capable of making a legitimate claim for the Urvalsdeild crown, particularly with FH Hafnarfjordur currently rolling around and feeling sorry for themselves. Along with Stjarnan Gardabaer, Fylkir are the top goalscoring side in the division and they’ve earned that title by scoring against some good sides this season. I rate this Fylkir side a lot because of their enthusiasm and their ability to score goals from all over the pitch. They’ve got a very promising striker in Papa Faye when he’s given chance to play – his pace causes so many problems. He’s eligible to play for Iceland although his name clearly indicates he’s from Senegal but it’ll be interesting to see how this young talent develops as there has been reported interest in him from various clubs abroad already. Fylkir are very much looking the real deal at the moment though so it makes far more sense to go with them than against them.
Appoach with caution because this is a derby but the value has to be with the away side here. Valur aren’t up to scratch and have a lot of problems internally whereas Fylkir are firing on all cylinders and have a lot going for them. Fylkir have even won two out of their last three trips to Valur so they’re definitely capable of doing so again tonight and odds of 15/8 are good enough to take a punt on it.
Verdict: Fylkir Reykjavik to win at 15/8.
Accumulator fodder:
Keflavik
Recommended bets:
Keflavik and Stjarnan Gardabaer at evens.
As ever, if there any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the complete picks listing, see below!
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
Inter Turku vs AC Oulu (5) 0-0
Haka Valkeakoski vs MyPa Anjalankoski (4) 0-1
Icelandic Urvalsdeild:
Keflavik vs Selfoss (9) 2-0
Stjarnan Gardabaer vs Haukar Hafnarfjordur (8) over 2.5 goals
FH Hafnarfjordur vs UMF Grindavik (7) under 2.5 goals
Valur Reykjavik vs Fylkir Reykjavik (7) 1-2
International Friendly:
South Africa vs Guatemala (6) under 2.5 goals
Enjoy your free betting tips!