Stockport County vs Rotherham United
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Before today’s post, I’d just like to pay my respects to midfielder Richard Butcher of Macclesfield Town, who sadly died recently at just twenty-nine years of age. There has been no reasoning given other than “natural causes” and in a sense, that makes it worse. No footballer should die at such a young age and it’s just crazy that it’s happened not longer after the death of Macclesfield Town manager Keith Alexander.
Today’s second featured game is the League Two clash between Stockport County and Rotherham United. These two sides are at opposite ends of the table with different goals in mind and their form of late is beginning to reflect that, which should hopefully set a precedent for tonight’s game!
Stockport County’s caretaker boss Peter Ward faces a mammoth task to do anything with this Stockport County side, irrespective of how long he’s at the helm for. They’re four points above the relegation zone and are the highest-conceding side in League Two so things are far from good at Edgeley Park. The sacking of Paul Simpson may have aided them in the backroom somewhat but there’s still the problem of talent and experience in the team. Due to their notorious financial issues, Stockport’s team are largely made up of youngsters as they’re generally forced to part with anyone who is bidded for. Indeed, they sold leading goalscorer Donnelly to Fleetwood Town a few days ago for approximately £50,000 and without him, I just don’t see where their goals will come from. Midfield duo Turnbull and Tansey have contributed from midfield and new loan signings Demontagnac (winger) and Elding (striker) will look to provide the necessary quota of goals but that’s a long-term solution in terms of this season; I don’t expect miracles to occur in a short space of time. They’ve lost all three games since the start of 2011 and although statistics can sometimes mask the reality of a team’s displays, I think it’s fair to say that Stockport haven’t earned anything from the games. They have the tenacity but their lack of experience and ultimately ability is costing them in a hefty way, as is proven with two of those three defeats coming at home rather than away! Stockport already have an atrocious record of just one home win in twelve League Two games but now they’re starting to turn their plentiful draws at home into away wins, which is naturally very detrimental to their case in terms of staying in the division. They not average scoring just a single goal per home game but they average conceding nearly three goals per home game to boot, which is a record that no side envies. To be blunt, Stockport have a lot of problems ahead of this game and I can only see them struggling to get anything against a superior Rotherham side.
Rotherham United striker Taylor should be back for this game despite taking a bit of a knock last match but aside from that, Rotherham only miss ever-absent Coid for this game so they’re at full-strength. Rotherham are also flying high following back-to-back wins since the start of 2011, beating Port Vale 5-0 and then following it up with a 0-2 win at Macclesfield Town. I don’t think I’ll ever be able to fathom why Rotherham are so good defensively away from home and so defensively inept at home but their attack remains consistently dangerous with star striker Le Fondre in dynamic form, as ever. Rotherham’s seven goals scored in their past two games should have a leaky Stockport defence shaking in their boots and deservedly so – Rotherham are playing very well currently. They’ve won five out of nine on the road in League Two this season and have only lost twice so their credentials as potential promotion candidates can’t really be ignored. Rotherham came close to being promoted last season; perhaps this year is their year, at long last.
A part of me hopes that Stockport’s loan signings do enough to keep them in the division as they’re an old club and it’d be good to still see them in England’s top four divisions. However, we have to be realistic here and the fact is that they’re really going to struggle to do that this season for reasons I’ve mentioned above. Rotherham are going the opposite way with a long overdue return to League One in the offering and if they continue playing as well as they have been lately – which naturally means them keeping hold of Le Fondre – then they should achieve it. Either way, I’d be beyond surprised to see anything but a Rotherham win in this game today – there’s far too much in their favour to overlook odds of 4/5 here.
Team news – Rotherham miss Coid for this game.
Verdict: Rotherham United to win at 4/5.
Tuesday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
Iraq vs Iran – Iran to win at 6/5.
I think even the most stupid of individuals could tell you that this is a derby so do approach with some caution here.
However, the glory days of Iraq from the 2007 Asian Cup are well and truly over, as boss Sidka knows all too well. Iraq won the tournament in 2007 but have really struggled to play anywhere near as well since them, which is a pity as it galvanised the whole nation in a difficult period. Sidka has stated recently “It was a huge success in 2007 and it was a big surprise. I saw the matches from then and a lot of the staff around me have told me of the success and how proud they were of this. But this is a new competition and we start from zero again. As title holders we have confidence but there are other teams able to win this tournament”.
In other words, he’s being realistic; Iraq can’t win it again. They’re the holders and this is a derby but I just don’t see how they’ll produce anything here. Iraq do have some good players like defender Abbas from Konyaspor but the surprise element of their style that worked so well in the last Asian Cup is no longer with them and sides find it easier to play against them as a result. They have some experienced players at international level but not enough that play outside of Asia and it’s starting to show. They had a rather extensive preparation for this tournament with both the Gulf Cup and friendlies throughout November and December respectively but they just don’t impress. They failed to score against Oman, they drew with Kuwait, they lost against Syria, and lost their most recent friendly against China. Iraq don’t score goals, as a rule, and that’s naturally a rather big issue. They have won a couple of friendlies but against sides either not playing well or sides that aren’t good. The most important factor to be aware of, however, is that they won both games 0-1. If a side scores against Iraq, chances are that they don’t lose because Iraq don’t score goals, as I mentioned earlier. Iraq’s defence is better than some in this tournament but it’s not the best so I think we’ll see them struggle against their more illustrious local rivals today.
Iran are one of the bigger and more experienced sides at the Asian Cup this year. They’ve been big on the Asian scene for at least fifteen years now with the likes of Karim Bagheri being their saviour. Now that he’s hung up his boots, the onus lies with Osasuna duo Nekounam and Shojaei, both of which are very talented midfielders. Those two in midfield balance out the holding midfield role and playmaker role better than any other duo in the competition, in my humble opinion, and it should show today. Well, it has to, really – Iran rely heavily on their midfield. They also have Andranik Teymourian, formerly of Bolton Wanderers, who is a very skilful and competent player so he’ll be another potent threat for the Iranians. It’s a shame that there were the “forced retirements” last year for the likes of Ali Karimi and Mehdi Mahdavikia because they’d stand a great chance of winning this tournament if they were here, in my view. Without them, they lack a little experience and also a little in front of goal, although that’s largely because Ali Daei was somewhat irreplaceable! Nonetheless, Iran have a good side; one that can keep the ball well and they have the experience to make it count here too so I expect a strong display from them.
Iran looked composed in their friendlies lately, beating an energetic Angola 1-0 and being held to a 0-0 draw with hosts Qatar. Iran’s defence is solid, much like neighbours Iraq’s defence, but Iran have more going forwards than their neighbours. Neither side is blessed with goalscorers but Iran’s midfield should win this one for them in what I expect to be a feisty and tight game. I’d have expected shorter odds on Iran here because Iraq aren’t a patch on what they were so backing an Iranian win at 6/5 looks tempting to me today.
Verdict: Iran to win at 6/5.
Torquay United vs Crewe Alexandra – away win with draw no bet at 5/4.
Until their win against Carlisle United in the FA Cup at weekend, Torquay United have endured a poor start to 2011 with a 2-2 draw at Hereford United being followed up with a 3-4 home defeat against Oxford United. Torquay’s counter-attacking ability has yet to manifest itself into a dominant weapon when Torquay play at Plainmoor with just three wins from nine home games in League Two. The ability of this Torquay side cannot be questioned, despite them still being new to this division – their away form alone is testament to that. However, they’ve started slipping a little lately, especially in defence, and that could cause big problems. Torquay don’t score enough goals at home to allow for defensive errors but they’re going to have to do so if they intend to beat in-form Crewe tonight and after a draining game against Carlisle United at weekend, I just don’t think that they’re going to be able to do it.
True enough, Crewe themselves had a game at weekend but FA Cup games often bring out energy in players that they never knew that they had, such is their desire to progress. Carlisle didn’t threaten Torquay anywhere near as much as they should have done but Torquay had to work hard to prevent them from doing so and hope for a bit of luck, which they got, so credit to Torquay. However, it’s going to take more than that for them to overcome their in-form opponents today as Crewe are scoring goals for fun. Dario Gradi’s side have won three games since the start of 2011, bagging six goals and keeping three clean sheets, which is pretty damn impressive. The trip to Shrewsbury Town is rarely an easy one and nor is the home game with Wycombe Wanderers but Crewe Alexandra won both games so their morale is good and their momentum is strong as a result. Crewe’s excellent form stems largely from lethal duo Miller and Donaldson in attack, who are both scoring goals for fun this season with at least one of them scoring in all of Crewe’s last five games. With the above in mind, Crewe have to be worth a shout here.
Statistically, Crewe aren’t the best side to back away from home with four wins in eleven League Two away games. However, they’ve rarely played as convincingly this season as they have done lately so I think that statistic is a bit unfair. Nonetheless, I’ll cover this selection with draw no bet as the price of 5/4 is still generous on a Crewe win due to their excellent form and given that Torquay only win approximately 33% of their home games on average, I think the away win with draw no bet cover is worth a flutter here.
Team news – Crewe have a small doubt over Westwood for this game.
Accumulator fodder:
Prestatyn Town and Llanelli.
Recommended bets:
Rotherham United at Llanelli at 2/1.
As ever, if there are any questions/explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Asian Cup:
North Korea vs United Arab Emirates (6) 1-0
Iraq vs Iran (6) 1-2, at least one red card in this game
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs North Queensland Fury (7) under 2.5 goals
English FA Cup:
Wycombe Wanderers vs Hereford United (7)
English League Cup:
West Ham United vs Birmingham City (7) 1-1
English League One:
Bristol Rovers vs Walsall (5)
Oldham Athletic vs Southampton (4)
Peterborough United vs Brentford (6) over 2.5 goals
Huddersfield Town vs Plymouth Argyle (7) over 2.5 goals
English League Two:
Stockport County vs Rotherham United (7)
Torquay United vs Crewe Alexandra (6) draw no bet
Welsh Premier League:
Aberystwyth Town vs Airbus UK (5) 1-0
Llanelli vs Haverfordwest County (8) 2-0
Prestatyn Town vs Bala Town (8) 2-1
Enjoy your free betting tips!