Sporting Braga vs Porto
FreeFor membership details, go here.
Today’s secondary featured game is the Liga Sagres clash between Sporting Braga and Porto. This heavyweight meeting sees the hosts stumbling around Portugal currently due to player sales whereas their opponents have seldom looked so organised all season long so this should be an interesting game.
Braga’s home record this season is as dominant as ever with six wins from eight Liga Sagres games, drawing once, and losing once along the way. They’ve averaged scoring nearly three goals per home game along the way, which easily counters their average of conceding a goal per home game, and they’ve generally been a hard side to face in the past couple of years as they’ve advanced quite well, really. However, times have changed since they attained UEFA Champions League football earlier in the season and they’re not the same team anymore, in my opinion. They crashed out of the UEFA Champions League and into the UEFA Europa League where they meet Poland’s Lech Poznan next week so there’s even a possibility of Braga resting players here. However, their brief stint in European football has done two things for the club – it’s highlighted the stars of the club and it’s given them a much more hectic schedule, two things that Braga have not dealt well with at all. Braga’s domestic displays suffered a lot earlier in the season and although they’ve picked up since they’ve had a break from European football, it’s somewhat inevitable that the same problems will occur in the remainder of the current campaign. In the winter break, Braga lost number one goalkeeper Felipe to Flamengo and star striker Mateus to Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk, two losses which were pretty hard to deal with, in all honesty. Because of the gulf in scoring potential between the top four and the remainder of the division, their losses aren’t as evident in low-key games but it’s in games like tonight’s match with Porto in which it should show, just as it did during a 2-1 defeat at Sporting Clube de Lisboa back in January. However, that’s not my sole reasoning behind dismissing a Braga side that possess a very strong home record. No, I’m dismissing them also because of their abseces tonight. For starters, they miss a key defender – Echiejile – who is irreplacable in this team. Braga have suffered a lot defensively of late and his absence is the nail in the coffin lid for me – Braga cannot defend without him. Therefore, Braga must look to attack Porto and they should surely have some players left to cover for the departed Mateus who can score here? Well, sure, they’ve got Brazilian duo Paulo Cesar and Lima, who’ve bagged eleven goals between them already this season so they should be a threat, right? Nope – they’re absent for this game and thus are very unlikely to score against Porto. Even new signing Ukra cannot play in attack for this game, presumably as part of the agreement between Braga and Porto, whom they bought him from. I’m surprised that the Braga boss hasn’t broken down in tears yet with crisis after crisis hitting this team, especially with experienced and frankly essential midfielder Vandrinho facing a late fitness test to be ready for this game. I already don’t rate Braga’s chances here but if Vandrinho’s out too then Braga really should just come and wave the white flag here.
It doesn’t help the hosts’ cause that Porto have been immense this season. I fully agree that they should be immense, given the superiority of their squad over the vast majority of the Liga Sagres but there’s the expectation of being that good and there’s being able to deliver and Porto are truly delivering this season, which I largely attribute to the budding strike partnership of Colombian hitman Falcao and Brazilian powerhouse Hulk, who has finally matured. However, credit must really go to emerging manager Villas-Boas, who used to play for Porto. He’s marshalled them into a dominant unit that simply believes that they’re the best and that’s something that you just can’t buy – the winners mentality. I just don’t know how he’s done it, though! Two years ago, Porto suffered arguably their heaviest loss of players in some time with star striker Lisandro Lopez, playmaker Lucho Gonzalaez, and full-back Ally Cissokho all departing the club. I mentioned last season that Benfica looked stronger and should win it due to those losses and indeed they did. However, Porto made further losses last season with Ernesto Farias departing for Cruzeiro and defensive lynchpin Bruno Alves departing for Zenit St.Petersburg, not to mention home-grown box-to-box midfielder Raul Meireles departing for Liverpool! I looked at their team and simply thought that the title would be Benfica’s again, in all honesty. I like Porto a lot but they had some many crippling departures that I didn’t see a way back for them, even though it’s their natural way of life as they’re essentially a feeder club to the European scene, especially so for emerging South American talent. However, Porto made some great signings – young Colombian midfielder James Rodriguez, Sporting Clube de Lisboa captain Moutinho, and Velez Sarsfield defender Otamendi, to name a few – and have asked their current crop of players to basically do more, which they’ve done! Rolado has stepped up to replace Bruno Alves as the dominant centre-back, Guarin, Moutinho, Fernando, and Rodriguez have all helped fill the central midfield void, and I cannot praise Falcao and Hulk enough in attck, both of which have been outstanding this season, particularly the latter. I wasn’t a big fan of Hulk last season and said so numerous times – he was too fiery and tempremental. He’s matured an awful lot this season though and I expect him to make his move in summer if his form continues for the remainder of the season – he’s too good for the Liga Sagres now, to be frank.
However, enough about Porto! Statistically speaking, the visitors have been fantastic on every front for some time now with only bitter rivals SL Benfica shattering their fine form with a 0-2 win at the Estadio do Dragao lately in the Taca de Portugal, which wasn’t a great surprise as Portuguese derbies are always fucked up, to be blunt – never bet on them. Porto have been dominant on the road this season with six wins from eight Liga Sagres trips, scoring twelve goals and conceding just twice away from home this season, which is really very remarkable. Porto control games very well indeed with their passing ability as it is but if you add defensive strength to that then you have a deadly combination, a combination that has given Porto an eleven point cushion over reigning champions SL Benfica this season so you can see why I rate them highly.
Even though Braga have been good in recent years, Porto have still won two out of their last three trips to Braga and they’re now facing arguably the weakest Braga side in a few years, especially with their transferred, injured, and suspended players! Porto only miss Uruguayan midfielder Pereira and have doubts over long-term absentee Falcao for this game so I’m not concerned and ultimately, if Porto get the lead here, then they should hold it. Braga are surely missing far too many players to compete with Porto in this game so the away win really interests me here.
As a final point, Braga have looked particularly shaky of late at home, drawing 2-2 with Vitoria Setubal and losing 2-3 at home to Pacos de Ferreira in the Portuguese League Cup. If they continue that rate of conceding against a superior Porto side with so many important players absent then I can noly see this game ending in an away win and as it’s generously priced at 10/11 with the above taken into consideration, the away win is my call here.
Team news – Sporting Braga miss Quim, Echiejile, Ukra, Paulo Cesar, Lima, and have doubts over Vandinho whereas Porto miss Rafael, Pereira, and have doubts over Falcao.
Verdict: Porto to win at 10/11.
Sunday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, below are my recommended value tips for today in no particular order:
All Boys vs Racing Club Avellaneda – home win with draw no bet at 5/6.
All Boys were spectacular in the Apertura when playing at home and I’m hope that carries over into the Clausura. Indeed, only eventual top two Velez Sarsfield and Estudiantes De La Plata respectively won more home games than All Boys in the Apetura despite All Boys being new to the Primera Division so they’re certainly worthy of your respect here.
All Boys have made a couple of changes since the Apertura but nothing on a major scale that concerns me. They parted with midfielder Perez-Garcia, who joined Universidad de Chile for the departed Manuel Iturra, and lost defender Ferrari to San Lorenzo de Almagro. However, they’ve brought in Argentinian legend Ariel Ortega from River Plate, which I think is a fantastic signing as he’s still got bags of ability and experience. They’ve also brought back academy product Gigilotti from Novara in Italy’s Serie B, which bolsters the All Boys attack further still, which sends out a clear message that All Boys intend to keep attacking. To be fair, that’s what won them their home games – their defending wasn’t great but the average of scoring nearly two goals per home game gave them a great boost, especially as there aren’t as many goals scored in Argentina (generally) as people think that there. All Boys are a very potent side and if you intend on beating them then you have to score more than them, which is something that I doubt Racing Club Avellaneda can do tonight.
Racing made a few changes during the window themselves, losing star midfielder Fernandez to SL Benfica and attacker Bieler to Newells Old Boys. However, they re-signed former academy product Zuculini from Hoffenheim and Colombian attacker Guiterrez was signed from Trabzonspor so they’ve done a reasonable job of balancing their transfers out. I like Racing and have great respect for them as one of Argentina’s giants but the problem they’ve had for some years now is scoring enough goals and with Fernandez in particular having departed the club, I don’t know how they’ll create or score enough goals to match All Boys in this game. Away from home especially, Racing keep it tight at the back and rarely commit to attacking fully so I just don’t think they’ll be able to restrain a flambuoyant and potent All Boys side tonight.
Do approach this one with caution as I am banking on All Boys carrying their form over the break but due to their strong spirit, I have to fancy them here. I don’t see Racing scoring enough goals to beat All Boys so taking the home win with draw no bet as cover at 5/6 appeals to me a lot here.
Verdict: All Boys to win with draw no bet at 5/6.
Wacker Innsbruck vs Salzburg – away win at 10/11.
Salzburg have been tossed a great lifeline this season in the Bundesliga, really. Considering how poorly they’ve played in the first part of the current campaign, Salzburg are lucky to still be in the title race but in the title race they absolutely are. Why? I’ve no idea! SV Ried are leading the way but aren’t good enough to win it. Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz follow closely behind but Sturm Graz don’t beat good sides and Austria Vienna don’t score enough goals. Salzburg, however, have the full package and if they get their act together then they’ll win the Bundesliga, simply put, especially with closest rivals Rapid Vienna dwelling in the doldrums at the moment, especially after a particularly poor 2-0 defeat at Wiener Neustadt yesterday.
Wacker Innsbruck were immense at the start of the Bundesliga campaign but have been “found out” in the past few months as goals dried up. Their tenacity continues but belief suffers as they continue to fail to impress due to their lack of quality – energy will only take you so far. Will the break have done them good? Hard to say, really. The departure of hot prospect Koch to Austria Vienna will have hurt them and they’ve looked below-par in friendlies, losing 1-0 at St.Gallen and drawing 0-0 at Thun during their time in Switzerland last month. It looks to me like their goalscoring issues are very much still issues and I don’t see any signs that they’ve tried to resolve them with no new faces arriving in Innsbruck over the break so I don’t rate their chances of avoiding a swift return to the Liga 1 as highly as I did earlier this season, even with the mounting gap between bottom club LASK Linz and the clubs near to them.
Salzburg, however, have impressed me during the winter break. They’ve signed experienced Hungarian defender Bodnar from Debreceni VSC and have scored a lot of goals during their friendlies played, including three against a defensive Ceske Budejovice, two against a decent Slovan Liberec, and they even bagged against a superior Spartak Moscow side in a 1-1 draw. Salzburg are looking good again, to be blunt, and that spells danger for all other Bundesliga sides in the near future if it’s carried over into their domestic form.
A win today puts Salzburg one point behind SV Ried ahead of their grudge match with Rapid Vienna next week and they’re going to really want to be in that position. They’ve shown a lot of willing and capability over the winter break so I have to take them seriously in this game. Salzburg do have some notable absences with holding midfielder Mendes da Silva and important defender Schwegler absent but as I expect them to be scoring goal here rather than playing at tactical game for a 0-1 win, I won’t read much into it. What does interest me, however, is the absence of Wacker Innsbruck defender Hauser as he’s essential to their back-line and given that they’re not scoring goals, they have to be good defensively or they’ll lose against worse sides than Salzburg.
For me, the above spells an away win and it’s decently priced at 10/11. Exercise some caution here as it’s the first game after the winter break but Salzburg appeal to me here.
Team news – Wacker Innsbruck miss Hauser whereas Salzburg miss Mendes da Silva, Alan, Ulmer, and Schwegler.
Verdict: Salzburg to win at 10/11.
Independiente Medellin vs Boyaca Chico – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
This game works on the same principle as Independiente’s first game in that they sold most of their defence during the window and now cannot be relied up defensively as a result. They’re still a better side than battling Boyaca Chico but how they intend to win games without any kind of gelled defence is beyond me. Stupidly, important holding midfielder Restrepo got himself sent off last match and misses this game through suspension, which provides even less protection for their fragile defence so I envision a very long night for Independiente. I’d hate to enter this game from a 1×2 perspective but with the hosts likely to score against the inferior opponents and concede due to to an unfamiliar defence, I think over 2.5 goals is worth a shout here, especially at decent odds of 10/11.
Team news – Independiente Medellin miss Mosquera and Restrepo.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Cagliari vs Chievo Verona – over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Barring the 0-1 anomaly against AC Milan, Cagliari’s last six home games have gone over 2.5 goals because they attack well but defend carelessly, which is a little surprising, when you consider how composed and calculating boss Donadoni is. Star striker Matri left Cagliari to join Juventus but Cagliari still have Nene and Acquafresca in attack, which should be enough against sides like Chievo Verona, in my view, although I am a little nervous about the supposedly absent Nainggolan as he plays a big part in midfield for Cagliari. However, they usually find the net during their games in Sardinia and I don’t think Chievo are good enough to prevent that today. That said, Chievo do possess one of the most underrated counter-attacks in Italy and they’ve caught out a lot of sides doing so so be careful when betting against Chievo. However, for today’s game, I’m expecting more of a long ball approach with Chievo missing Fernandes and Marcolini in midfield, which means that their creativity is rather heavily lessened. However, with Pellissier and Moscardelli in attack, this side will always stand a chance of scoring and especially so with Cagliari missing Agostini in defence. For me, this game has goals written all over it as Chievo don’t look strong enough today to do their usual “park the bus” routine so I expect a fairly open game and over 2.5 goals looks quite generously priced at 5/4 as a result.
Team news – Cagliari miss Agostini, Laner, and Nainggolan whereas Chievo Verona miss Marcolini, Luciano, and Fernandes.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 5/4.
Juventus vs Internazionale – away win at 8/5.
Inter haven’t won at Juventus in Serie A since 2004 so approach with a bit of caution here. However, Inter are attacking well under Leonardo, which is fortunate because their defending is shambolic at times. Inter are scoring a lot of goals due to Eto’o and co. being let loose and now that Wesley Sneijder is back in the side, Inter should be as potent as ever in attack. It helps the bet that Juventus have looked shoddy in defence all season long so Inter scoring should be a given here, rivalry or not. Indeed, even bottom club Cesena haven’t conceded as many goals at home as Juventus have this season with The Old Lady averaging conceding nearly two goals per home game currently, which is terrible. If they miss Marchiso for this game as reports suggest then they’re going to really struggle defensively here. Let’s face it – Juventus have lost at home to worse sides than Inter lately, Parma and Udinese to name two, so the away win is very much a possibility here. Juventus do pose a great attacking threat with the likes of Krasic and Del Piero in their team but Inter pose a better one, in my view, especially with Pazzini having settled well so far. I’d be careful with this one as Inter miss some important and experienced defenders but to be honest, if this game develops into an open encounter, then I don’t see Juventus outscoring Inter here as Inter have better players, in my view. You can expect plenty of cards in this game and for a change, there should be a lot of goals too. However, for me, the away win is priced too generously at 8/5 so that’s my call here.
Team news – Juventus miss Traore, De Ceglie, Quagliarella, and Rinaudo whilst having doubts over Marchiso whereas Internazionale miss Chivu, Lucio, Stankovic, Mariga, and Milito.
Verdict: Internazionale to win at 8/5.
Ankaragucu vs Besiktas JK – over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
This one speaks for itself, really. Six out of Ankaragucu’s ten home games in the Super Lig this season have gone over 2.5 goals due to catastrophic defending but purposeful attacking. However, today they’re hosting one of the best attacks in Turkey with Besiktas JK’s Portuguese contingent so we should see goals here. Despite their impressive attacking acquisitions, Besiktas JK really haven’t mastered the art of defence yet so it’s hard to take them seriously in games like this as winners – Turkish away wins are generally hard to call. I can understand Besiktas’ focus on attacking though – if you score more goals than your opponent, you stand to win the game, logically speaking! Let’s face it – few sides are in a position in the Super Lig to match Besiktas’ firepower so there is method to the madness. However, whilst the new signings bed in, Besiktas’ are left with their weak defence and occasional goal flurries so again, I think we’ll see goals here. Besiktas miss winger Quaresma for this game, which is naturally a blow, but they do have some gifted attackers elsewhere in the team and with Ankaragucu not being the most secure of sides defensively, it shouldn’t prove to be a particularly costly loss today.
Importantly, Ankaragucu’s fragile defence misses two essential defenders today – Klukowski and Ucar – so they must concede at least one or two goals today. Besiktas miss number one goalkeeper Gonen and defender Ersan so they’re fragile at the back too. Both sides prioritise attacking so realistically, we should see a lot of goals here and thus over 2.5 goals appeals to me at generous odds of 21/20.
Team news – Ankaragucu miss Sozen, Senecky, Klukowski, Ucar, and Kagan whereas Besiktas JK miss Quaresma, Nihat, Ersan, and Gonen.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
Accumulator fodder:
Wellington Phoenix, SL Benfica, Celtic, Karabukspor, Real Esppor Club.
Recommended bets:
Porto, SL Benfica, and Real Esppor Club at 3/1.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Argentinian Primera Division:
All Boys vs Racing Club Avellaneda (6) 1-0
Boca Juniors vs Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (7) over 2.5 goals
Tigre vs River Plate (5) 1-1
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix vs North Queensland Fury (8) -1.5 handicap
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets (6) 2-1
Austrian Bundesliga:
Wacker Innsbruck vs Salzburg (7) 0-1
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
Standard de Liege vs Racing Genk (4) 1-2
Kortrijk vs AA Gent (5) 1-1
Chilean Primera Division:
Cobreloa vs Universidad de Chile (5) 0-1
Audax Italiano vs Cobresal (7) over 2.5 goals
Colombian Primera A:
Independiente de Santa Fe Bogota vs Deportes Quindio (7) 1-0
Envigado vs Itagui Ditaires (5) 1-0
America de Cali vs Deportivo Pereira (5) 1-1
Atletico Huila vs Real Cartagena (5) 1-1
Independiente Medellin vs Boyaca Chico (6) over 2.5 goals
Cucuta Deportivo vs Millonarios Bogota (5) over 2.5 goals
Cypriot Division 1:
AEL Limassol vs Apollon Limassol (5) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
APOP/Kinyras vs Alki (4) 1-1
Anorthosis Famagusta vs Doxa (9) -1.5 handicap
Ecuadorian Primera A:
Deportivo Quito vs Emelec Guayaquil (7) 1-0
Independiente vs Espoli Cayambe (5) 2-1
Olmedo Riobamba vs El Nacional Quito (6) under 2.5 goals
Imbabura vs Liga de Quito (5) 1-1
English Premier League:
Bolton Wanderers vs Everton (5) 2-2
English Championship:
Queens Park Rangers vs Nottingham Forest (6) under 2.5 goals
French Ligue 1:
Stade Rennais vs OGC Nice (7) 1-0
Valenciennes vs Stade Brestois (6) 1-0
LOSC Lille vs Toulouse (7) 2-1
German Bundesliga:
Koln vs Mainz 05 (6) 1-1
Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96 (5) 1-1
German Bundesliga 2:
Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Bochum (6) over 2.5 goals
Karlsruher SC vs Hertha BSC Berlin (4)
Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Ingolstadt (6)
Greek Super League:
Kerkyra vs Panserraikos (6) 1-0
Iraklis vs Asteras Tripolis (6) 2-1
Larissa vs Olympiakos Volos (5) 2-1
Xanthi vs Atromitos (6) 0-0
Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens (3) 0-1, at least one red card in this game
Italian Serie A:
Palermo vs Fiorentina (7) over 2.5 goals
Cagliari vs Chievo Verona (6) 2-1
Bari vs Genoa (6) both sides to score
Brescia vs Lazio (4) 0-1
Catania vs Lecce (6) over 2.5 goals
Cesena vs Udinese (6) over 2.5 goals
Sampdoria vs Bologna (4) 0-0
Juventus vs Internazionale (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Mexican Primera Division:
Morelia vs Estudiantes Tecos (6) 2-1
Pumas UNAM vs Guadalajara (6) 1-0
Dutch Eredivisie:
NAC Breda vs Heerenveen (5) 1-1
Roda JC Kerkrade vs AFC Ajax Amsterdam (6) 1-1
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Rotterdam (6) over 2.5 goals
De Graafschap vs Groningen (5) 2-2
Dutch Eerste Divisie:
Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles (7)
Paraguayan Division Profesional:
Rubio Nu vs Cerro Porteno (6) 1-1
Peruvian Primera Division:
Cienciano vs Sport Huancayo (5) 1-1
Alianza Lima vs Union Comcercio (7) 2-0
Sporting Cristal vs Melgar FBC (7) 1-0
Alianza Atletico vs Sport Boys (6) 2-1
Universidad Cesar Vallejo vs CNI (7) 2-0
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Pacos de Ferreira vs Maritimo Funchal (6) 1-0
Naval de Maio vs Academica de Coimbra (5) both sides to score
Rio Ave vs Portimonense (6) 0-0
SL Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes (8) 2-0
Sporting Braga vs Porto (7) 0-2
Scottish Premier League:
Dundee United vs Celtic (8) over 2.5 goals
Spanish Primera Liga:
Hercules Alicante vs Real Zaragoza (6) 1-1
Malaga vs Getafe (6) 2-1
Levante vs Almeria (5) both sides to score
Real Sociedad vs Osasuna (6) 2-1, at least one red card in this game
Deportivo La Coruna vs Villarreal (5) 1-1
Espanyol vs Real Madrid (7) 0-1
Spanish Segunda Liga:
Tenerife vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (5) over 2.5 goals
Cordoba vs Celta de Vigo (6)
Gimnastic de Tarragona vs Salamanca (6)
Swiss Super League:
Grasshopper Zurich vs Thun (7) 2-1
Luzern vs Neuchatel Xamax (6) over 2.5 goals
Young Boys Bern vs FC Zurich (5) over 2.5 goals
Turkish Super Lig:
Karabukspor vs Kasimpasa (8) 2-0
Eskisehirspor vs Bursaspor (6) 0-1
Antalyaspor vs Manisaspor (5) 2-2
Ankaragucu vs Besiktas JK (6) over 2.5 goals
Uruguayan Primera Division:
River Plate Montevideo vs Rampla Juniors (7) 2-0
Bella Vista vs Danubio (6) 1-2
El Tanque Sisley vs Tacuarembo (6) 1-0
Cerro vs Central Espanol (7) 2-0
Montevideo Wanderers vs Penarol (5) 1-2
Venezuelan Primera Division:
Estudiantes de Merida vs Monagas SC (5) 0-1
Yaracuyanos vs Atletico Venezuela (7) 1-0
Aragua vs Caroni (7) 2-0
Deportivo Tachira vs Caracas (5) under 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Trujillanos vs Carabobo (6) 0-0
Real Esppor Club vs Zulia (8) 2-0
Deportivo Petare vs Atletico El Vigia (6) 2-1
Mineros de Guayana vs Zamora (6) 1-0
Deportivo Anzoategui vs Deportivo Lara (7) 1-0
Enjoy your free betting tips!