Swansea City vs Tottenham Hotspur
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Today’s secondary featured game is the Premier League clash in Wales between Swansea City and Tottenham Hotspur.
Swansea City’s home record this season is strong and they’ll generally make sides work very hard to win at the Liberty Stadium. They’ve got a good level of support and the side has a good level of cohesion within it. That’s why they’ve hardly conceded any goals at home this season, to be blunt. However, they’ve one crippling flaw and it’s their inability to score goals. Even their goal against an out-of-sorts Queens Park Rangers side last match was dubious at best and it’s becoming an all-too-familiar sight to see Swansea end a game without creating enough chances nor scoring enough goals.
Regular defender Caulker misses out today as Tottenham Hotspur won’t allow him to feature against his parent club so old Garry Monk is set to step in. I don’t think that’s ideal aganist a quick and vibrant Spurs attack and the injury to Angel Rangel that makes him a doubt for this game doesn’t help either. I think Swansea have finally come up against a side that can rip their defence to shreds in Spurs and if they concede an early goal here then they’re in for a long game.
I can’t honestly say that I have a lot of faith in the Spurs defence despite the promising season thus far for Walker and Assou-Ekotto respectively at full-back. However, their centre-backs are changed around too often for my liking and they’re not usually too convincing against good sides although the addition of Brad Freidel between the sticks pre-season was nothing but pure inspiration from experienced boss Redknapp. He’s saved them numerous times this season already. However, I doubt Spurs will have to do much to keep Swansea at bay here, to be honest. A simple hard-working display should be enough to see Spurs win this one without any great ceremony.
For me, there’s a lot of value on Spurs winning this one without conceding at 7/4. Defoe returns to give Redknapp options in attack although King and Lennon remain out. Spurs have more than enough firepower to score here though and I just don’t have any faith in the Swansea attack right now so my call is for Spurs to win to nil at 7/4.
Verdict: Tottenham Hotspur to win to nil at 7/4.
Friday’s Picks
My tips:
As ever, please find my value tips listed below in no particular order:
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory – lay Brisbane Roar at 10/11.
Heads have well and truly dropped at Brisbane Roar and they’re looking less and less effectual as a team. A lot of media pundits are pointing to the continued absence of playmaker Broich as the reason but I’m not so sure. He has a big part to play, it’s true, but Murdocca is a clever enough player to do a job in midfield and yet Brisbane Roar still aren’t firing on all cylinders. I watched them against Gold Coast United lately and they just looked so lacklustre and poor that it was unbelievable. I lost count of the number of times that they passed the ball so badly that it went out of play and I don’t see anything to perk them up here. They aren’t providing their strikers with any kind of support and as a whole, Brisbane Roar just look totally ineffectual right now. There are some speculations that Broich will return here but Brisbane Roar are going to have to play better in this game than they have in the previous five if they’re going to win this one.
Melbourne Victory must smell blood here. They simply have to go for it. They lost an exciting derby with Melbourne Heart 3-2 lately and need to bounce back from that. Defending hasn’t been a strong part of their play this season but scoring goals absolutely has been. It’s no surprise, though – at thirty-three years of age, Harry Kewell is still far too good for the A-League and his signature has given the Melbourne Victory squad a real lift and has also boosted their ability to create chances and score goals. Old hand Thompson up front is getting better service and has already bagged six goals in twelve A-League games this season. Costa Rican attacker Hernandez is in great form too and with a lot of experienced players in their attack, it’s hard to imagine Melbourne Victory exiting this game without scoring at least once.
I can’t rule out the possibility of a cheeky away win here – the value is definitely on the visitors. However, I’m opting for a “safer” bet of laying Brisbane Roar at 10/11. Brisbane Roar are still a good side and could turn it on so I’m opting to lay them rather than back the away win as I still find a lot of value on laying the hosts at 10/11 given how many goals Melbourne Victory are scoring and how ineffectually Brisbane Roar are playing.
Verdict: Lay Brisbane Roar at 10/11.
Arsenal vs Queens Park Rangers – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
I normally don’t like handicapping Arsenal without the Asian handicap insurance (e.g. -1 AH) but I’m going to brave it today. Why? Well, this is the kind of game where they can run riot, in my view. QPR have really fallen off the wagon lately, playing badly, not creating enough chances, and defending like morons. Wolves got a 1-1 draw at The Emirates in Arsenal’s last match but that wasn’t an impossible outcome, surprising as it may have been for some. I can’t deny that I expected Arsenal to win, of course. What I mean is that Wolves play a solid enough defensive game aganist big sides to frustrate them and a side like Arsenal with no “Plan B” can screw up in those games. However, QPR don’t have that kind of defensive stability so I really feel that they’re in for a long day here. Arsenal’s pacey attackers can run rings around QPR’s slow defenders and they should break the handicap if they put their minds to it today. Walcott returns to give Arsenal additional options up front and they’ll need to impress with the impending return of club legend Thierry Henry on loan threatening some players’ places in the team. There are rumours of van Persie being rested here and had Arsenal not signed Henry then I would agree with it. However, van Persie will be allowed to rest with Henry in the squad so I think he’ll feature today. If unsure, wait for the line-ups before placing the bet. However, for me, Arsenal should easily break the -1.5 handicap today as I have zero faith in QPR’s defence.
Verdict: Arsenal to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
As ever, if there are any explanations required then please feel free to post a comment! For the remainder of my thoughts on today’s games, see below, although I feel compelled to write that the below are not necessarily my tips but merely my thoughts to prevent endless questions about my thoughts on certain games!
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets vs Perth Glory (7) 2-0
Central Coast Mariners vs Gold Coast United (8) 2-0
Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory (6) 1-1
English Premier League:
Manchester United vs Blackburn Rovers (9) -1.5 handicap
Arsenal vs Queens Park Rangers (8) 2-0
Bolton Wanderers vs Wolverhampton Wanderers (5) 2-1
Chelsea vs Aston Villa (8) 1-0
Norwich City vs Fulham (4) 2-2
Stoke City vs Wigan Athletic (7) 1-0
Swansea City vs Tottenham Hotspur (7) 0-1
English Championship:
Leicester City vs Portsmouth (7)
Watford vs Doncaster Rovers (7)
Derby County vs West Ham United (5)
Barnsley vs Leeds United (6) over 2.5 goals,at least one red card in this game
Millwall vs Crystal Palace (6) over 2.5 goals, at least one red card in this game
Coventry City vs Brighton & Hove Albion (6)
Burnley vs Hull City (6)
Middlesbrough vs Peterborough United (7)
Nottingham Forest vs Cardiff City (4)
Birmingham City vs Blackpool (5)
Reading vs Ipswich Town (6)
Enjoy your free betting tips!