TFT Issue 102!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
MSK Zilina vs Tatran Presov – away win with +1.5 handicap at evens.
I was really happy with this tip until I saw the team news. Zilina have been crap since they sold Oravec because they don’t have any good and/or in-form strikers left, hence not scoring goals. They’re on a barren run and have just played 120 minutes against Slovan Bratislava in the cup so they’re tired here. Tatran are playing well and this handicap wins them all but one of their away games since the winter break, not to mention their last visit to Zilina. However, the news that Tatran miss three quarters of their defence makes this a big “no bet” today.
Featured game
Lugano vs Servette – home win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the heavyweight clash in Switzerland’s Challenge League between Lugano and Servette. The hosts have entered a slump of late whereas the visitors are on-fire so I’m expecting a lot of people to jump on Servette here, which will hopefully allow the odds to rise.
I really like the chances of Lugano winning this one, however. There’s almost an air of desperation about the hosts at the moment as they’ve been battling for Super League football for years without success. They looked to have nailed it early this year but three consecutive defeats has thrown their promotion ambitions into question and they need to respond. It may seem a little harsh, but Lugano parted company with their coach in favour of ex-boss Morinini, who did a good job last time and is reportedly pleased with the condition of his team. Additionally, the only doubt the hosts have is new signing Schurpf from Basel so they’re virtually at full-strength here and let’s not beat about the bush – Lugano absolutely have the best squad in this division, especially with Swedish attacker Hallenius still on loan here from Genoa. Senger, Alfonso, and Fejzulahi have been in inspired form this season, however, and they’re the predominant reasoning behind Lugano scoring so many goals. Lugano know how essential promotion is this season and they’ve clearly made that apparent to their sponsors, who have reportedly paid for all the tickets for Lugano’s two remaining home games to allow anyone to enter the game for free so I expect a lot of support for giants Lugano today. New manager syndome + a lot of support + the best side in the division = a home win today, in my eyes.
Servette are a bigger side than Lugano but they don’t have the same level as quality as their hosts, in my view. I actually really want Servette to be promoted – a club of their stature and history simply shouldn’t be in the Challenge League – but we’ll see how that goes. For now, we’ll focus on this game. Servette have done superbly well lately but the problem I have with their form is that they’re over-achieving, in my view. Hats off to them – they’ve destroyed the sides that they’ve beaten but I would argue that they’ve beaten crap and/or out-of-form sides lately. Today they’re facing a much better side and it’s about time that the continued absence of de Azevedo shows. He’s an instrumental part of Servette’s attack against good sides and without him, they lose a lot of potency, in my view. They’ve got enough depth in their team to annihlate lesser teams, as you’d expect, but I can’t see that being the case against Lugano today. In addition to the absence of their best attacking midfielder, they miss their second-best striker Karanovic, Liechtenstein midfielder Nater, experienced midfielder Pizzinat, and back-up defender Schlauri, as well as another few not really worth mentioning currently. Those absences have done a lot of damage to Servette’s attack, in my view, and given that their defence is far from stable, I think they’re really going to struggle today.
In terms of head-to-heads – Lugano have won two out of the last three. They’ve got a stronger squad available to them, a big support in their stadium, and their opponents are missing a few essential players. For me, there has to be value in backing Lugano at evens here.
Team news – Lugano have doubts over Schurpf whereas Servette miss de Azevedo, Guedes, Karanovic, Nater, Novelle, Pizzinat, Schlauri, and Varela.
Verdict: Lugano to win at evens.
Additional games
Dinamo Brest vs Neman Grodno – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
There’s a good chance that you’ll see me tipping Dinamo Brest a lot at home this season – well, most seasons, to be fair – because they’re generally very predictable. They’re a good home side, irrespective of their sold players, because they attack a lot, defend crazily, and play on artificial turf. They’ve already gone over 2.5 goals in three out of their four home games this season with the only exception being their 2-0 win against rock-bottom Dnepr Mogilev, which is easily explained as the visitors in that game have no firepower anymore. You could look at their 1-1 draw at Dinamo Minsk last match and think that they’re becoming more composed but no – that’s entirely down to Gurenko’s boys having sold more talented attacking players than they could afford to lose and subsequently, they find it very hard to score goals in any other way than counter-attacks and the occasional long ball. I like Dinamo Brest, though – they’re a good attacking unit with options in attack with ex-Dinamo Minsk target man Lebedev there to provide height and Mozolevski and Khvashchinskiy to provide the pace alongside him in their atypical 4-3-3. Tsevan has contributed a lot from midfield this season and I’m overall very impressed that Dinamo Brest are still producing strong home displays despite the sales of Kozak, Kibuk, Sokol, and Vasilyuk pre-season. This side truly believes in themselves and that’s atypically very evident in their home games.
Visitors Neman Grodno have impressed me the most with their pre-season signings, however. They’ve had trouble breaking sides down at home since their acquisitions but have looked deadly on the counter-attack, subsequently winning twice and drawing twice in their four Vysshaya Liga away games this season, despite facing giants BATE Borisov and Dinamo Minsk respectively along the way. You can see how much they’ve improved by the fact that they’ve scored in every away game so this side is not going to be easy to play against this year. Just look at who they drafted in though! Midfield – Cvetkovic from Red Star Belgrade, Denisevich from Shakhtyor Soligorsk, Strakhanovich from Dinamo Minsk, and Suchkov from Shakhter Karagandy. They still need more depth in attack but the acquisition of experienced Moldovan hitman Frunza has done them a great deal of good. Aside from him, there’s returning veteran striker Kovalenok, who was their leading goalscorer last season. I don’t really class Gorbach as a striker and sixteen year old Savitski is just too young. However, I expect the depth issue to be more of an issue in the later stages of the campaign because at the moment, they look very good indeed.
The last two meetings between these two clubs in Brest have gone over 2.5 goals and I’m hoping for a third successive occasion of over 2.5 goals. I thoroughly expect both sides to score here and you’re a better man than I am if you can bet on a winner here because I just don’t know. I’d side with Dinamo Brest if pushed but this should be a lot tighter than in recent years. Either way, over 2.5 goals appeals to me at generous odds of 11/10 whenever Dinamo Brest play at home – they’re just a very attacking outfit.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Skonto Riga vs FK Ventspils – away win at 3/2.
The old Riga derby is not a game to bet on lightly but I do think there’s value in Ventspils winning this one today.
Why? Well, as is usual with Virsliga clubs, both sides underwent hefty changes pre-season as some talented players were poached from them and they subsequently poached players from other clubs as replacements. The managers both moved on and were also replaced and that’s partially where some of my confidence comes from. Ventspils appointed Podpaly as boss, who has been managing for many years, whereas Skonto Riga appointed prodigal son Marian Pahars as boss and they’ve not really flourished under him whereas Podpaly’s Ventspils have looked efficient and in control for all of their games in all competitions thus far.
As mentioned earlier, both sides sold some big players pre-season but Ventspils were the only side to replace all of their departed players; Skonto Riga didn’t manage to do that, in my eyes. Ventspils lost the likes of Zigajevs, Mishchenko, Krjauklis, Zjuzins, and Kryuchkov but signed many players to deal with their losses ala Martinez, Zatkins, Sukhanov, Sato, Laizans, and Hohlovs, not to mention drafting in various players from their second string Tranzits Ventspils.
Skonto Riga, however – they lost the pace of Pereplotkins, which is a massive blow. They lost winger Cauna on loan to CSKA Moscow for the season, which damages their creativity. Skonto Riga have signed players pre-season but they’ve not replaced either of those players, in my eyes. It looks like Skonto are trying to utilise ex-Charlton Athletic man Smart or ex-Ermis midfielder Fabinho for a creative purpose but neither fill the void left by Cauna. I like that Skonto signed Juris Laizans to sit in front of the back four – that was a smart move. We also have to pay homage to the excellent youngsters that Skonto Riga managed to keep hold off in Turkmenistan hot prospect Mingazov in midfield, Latvian starlet Karasausks, and Brazilian hitman Nathan Junior. Those three are goal machines when they wish to be although they’re perhaps a tad young to dramatically change the outcome of such a big game whereas Pereplotkins brought experience to their attack in addition to pace.
Aside from the above, Skonto Riga had a lot of problems earlier this season with injuries and some of their players are still absent today, the most notable of which is experienced attacker Blanks, emerging midfielder Sinelnikovs, number one goalkeeper Ikstens, and regular midfielder Dubra. They’ve battled on fairly well without those players but considering that Pahars doesn’t really have control of the team yet due to his inexperience in the role he’s in, it’s no surprise that Skonto Riga haven’t looked themselves yet. Mingazov and Nathan Junior’s return helps but there are still problems at the club and this is the type of game where I expect to see them exposed.
Ventspils have eased through all of their games barring the trip to Liepajas Metalurgs, which ended goalless. They look to be the atypical epitome of composure and efficiency whereas the hosts look shaky at the back and a bit short on attacking power. Skonto have been poor at home this season, by their standards, losing at home to newly-promoted FC Jurmala without scoring and losing a derby with Liepajas Metalurgs without scoring too. Indeed, their sole win came at home to newly-promoted Gulbene 2005 on the opening day of the season and that was a rather uncomfortable 2-1 so you can see where I’m coming from. There’s definitely a gap for Martinez and co. to exploit and at generous odds of 3/2, I fancy Ventspils to edge this one today.
Team news – Skonto Riga miss Ikstens, Dubra, Sinelnikovs, and Blanks whereas FK Ventspils miss Tukura.
Verdict: FK Ventspils to win at 3/2.
Dainava vs Siauliai – away win at 3/2.
I think we’ve got a bit of a conflict of interests here and surprisingly enough, the A Lyga table doesn’t show it. Four wins and one draw from eight A Lyga games thus far would have you believe that Dainava are an experienced side in this division; that they know what they’re doing. The reality is that although they do have a few experienced individuals, they’re riding a wave of momentum currently. That’s understandable; we all know some newly-promoted sides go through such runs sometimes. However, quality-wise, they’ll do well to stay in the division this season and I think we may see an example of that today.
Siauliai are the dark horses in the A Lyga this season, or so the Lithuanian media would have you believe. I do agree with them to a degree; Siauliai have already demonstrated various times this season that they know how to control games and the fact that they took a 0-0d draw from the unenviable trip to giants Suduva Marijampole in their last away match speaks volumes about how far they’ve advanced. You can look at their record lately and point out that Siauliai haven’t scored in four games but I’d counter that with the fact that they’ve faced the best three sides in Lithuania right now – Suduva Marijampole, Ekranas Panevezys, and Zalgiris Vilnius respectively – and they’ve had an unfamiliar Baltic League game with arguably the best side in the Baltic right now – FK Ventspils of Latvia – and it was too much for them. I have already admitted that goalscoring is a problem of Siauliai’s and it’s one they need to rectify if their A Lyga push is to gain any credibility but they’ve scored in three out of their four A Lyga away games already this season so they can do it here against what is frankly an inferior Dainava side.
Although I have complete respect for Dainava’s excellent run, I think they’ve well and truly hit their ceiling. They’ve been utterly dominated in the only two tough games they’ve had so far this season and we may see a similar game here. The only result that makes me sit up and go “That was a bit unexpected” was their win against Mazeikiai, who similarly have a lot to learn. Siauliai aren’t giant-esque yet but they control games as if they were and they’re so strong at the back. They need to find the net more often but realistically, a single goal for them should win it here and odds of 3/2 on Siauliai winning with the above in mind is far more generous than it should be.
Verdict: Siauliai to win at 3/2.
Suduva Marijampole vs Zalgiris Vilnius – home win at 6/5.
I can’t help but feel that these odds wrong. There’s not a favourable head-to-head record for the hosts here because contrary to popular belief, this is actually a pretty big derby and Zalgiris love to piss off their more illustrious rivals.
However, I can’t ignore odds of 6/5 here because Suduva are simply a better team than Zalgiris. Zalgiris’ glory days are behind them and although they do well in the A Lyga nowadays, they’re still not close to challenging Suduva and Ekranas respectively. I love how flattering statistics are made to look, though. Zalgiris top the table currently and fair play to them for it – they’ve won six out of eight games thus far and that generally means you deserve to be where you are in the table. However, one factor conveniently overlooked in general is that five of those wins have been in their five home games and what is also overlooked is that Zalgiris play their home games at an indoor arena on artificial turf which gives them a massive advantage as we’ve all seen from Finnish football, for example. Away from home, we see the real Zalgiris. They’ve lost at a decent Mazeikiai side 2-0, drew 0-0 at a good Siauliai side (that lacks firepower) and a nervous 0-1 win at Kruoja Pakruojis thanks to a late winner from Astrauskas. That’s one goal scored in three away games; it’s not too convincing, is it? Let’s also not forget that Suduva’s pitch at Marijampole is the best in the country by a mile and it generally means that sides find it hard to play on because pitches in Lithuania are generally shit. The Arvi Arena therefore lends Suduva an advantage somewhat akin to that of Shakhtar Donetk’s Donbass Arena in Ukraine. Therefore, Suduva have the advantage here and additionally, they have better players. I’m sure you can understand why I can’t overlook odds of 6/5 on the home win here with the above in mind although a draw is never out of the question in this derby so approach with caution!
Verdict: Suduva Marijampole to win at 6/5.
Wisla Krakow vs Lech Poznan – home win at evens.
This is the battle of Poland; the “who’s best” in the Ekstraklasa so expect some rivalry here.
However, I’m all over a Wisla win here with the proviso that Bulgarian target man Genkov completes ninety minutes. They’re a totally different side when he plays as was demonstrated with a conclusive and dominant win in Gdansk lately, running out 0-3 winners at Lechia. Look at Wisla’s results without him – 0-2 defeat at home to Gornik Zabrze and a 2-0 defeat at Slask Wroclaw. The fact is that when Wisla have Genkov in the team being surrounded by the likes of Malecki, Kirm, and Meliksson (i.e. pacey and skilful players) their 4-3-3 is very dominant and in front of a roaring Reymonta crowd, I have to favour the hosts here.
Lech have just announced that manager Bakero will not be in charge after this season. It’s not ideal timing, is it? I know they’ve had issues with internal conflicts (ala Stilic not renewing his contract as he doesn’t like his Catalan boss) and the media are forever pointing out that Lech’s boss does nothing but rotate the team but seriously! They’re on the brink of a season with nothing achieved whatsoever following Puchar Polski defeat against Legia Warsaw and they must now battle for third place. The alternative? They lose their stars in summer and if Latvian striker Rudnevs goes, as he’s said he will if they’re not playing European football next season, then Lech are screwed. I’m sure we’ll see Belarusian playmaker Krivets leave too, if that’s the case. Therefore, Lech have to win here, which means they can’t play their defensive game and thus they can be broken apart by hosts Wisla here.
Unfortunately, Lech looked pretty good against Gornik Zabrze lately so I’m hoping Wisla turn it on to claim a vital three points here. We can expect goals as both sides realistically need to win but with no Djurdjevic at the back for Lech today, I have to favour Wisla to win this one, even though I expect their shaky defence to concede against Rudnevs as he’s far too good for the Ekstraklasa. They also miss Kikut whereas Wisla have only got their long-term absentees out so for me, there’s value in the home win at evens although I’d leave it if it drops.
Lastly – Lech aren’t allowed fans at this game after their fights with Legia Warsaw in the Puchar Polski.
Team news – Wisla Krakow miss Boguski, Boukhari, Bunoza, and Lobodzinski whereas Lech Poznan miss Bandrowski, Kikut, Djurdjevic, and Drygas.
Verdict: Wisla Krakow to win at evens.
Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala vs Piast Gliwice – under 2.5 goals at 28/25.
Liga 1 leaders Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala will lose fans if they play as badly in this game as they did during their 2-0 defeat at the worst side in their division last match, or so their fans have claimed. They’ve been immense this season, Podbeskidzie, and they’ve almost claimed promotion now. It’s mathematically possible that they won’t be promoted but third-placed Flota Swinoujscie are eight points behind with a game in hand so it’s unlikely to happen. This is Podbeskidzie’s “easiest” game left, however – their remaining two games are at Warta Poznan and at home to moneybags Bogdanka Leczna and given how badly today’s opponents Piast Gliwice are playing at the moment, the hosts must take advantage of it.
Their biggest problem is going to be scoring goals, however. They’ve gained most of their wins this season through being dominant at the back rather than scoring goals as they’re not a flambuoyant side. That’s going to be the case more than ever today with star striker Cieslinski injured for this game (and likely to be for the remainder of the season) so the burden falls upon Slovakian striker Demjan. Given that ten out of Podbeskidzie’s thirteen Liga 1 home games this season have gone under 2.5 goals already, I think there’s a good chance of this one going under too, especially without Cieslinski and especially given as they’ve got to be tired from their hectic Puchar Polski campaign.
The only time that Podbeskidzie’s home games go over are when away sides score against them and although Piast Gliwice are good enough to do so, scoring is something that they’re not doing, hence their manager being informed that he won’t be in charge next season. It’s no surprise, really – Piast have one of the strongest sides in the league and yet have failed to score enough goals to be promoted. Seven out of Piast’s ten games since the winter break have gone under 2.5 goals because they’ve scored just five goals during those ten games. Only Maycon can find the net for them in attack and it really shows. Midfielders Iwan and Biskup tend to carry the team, strangely enough. Piast are usually good at the back on the road with the best defensive record in the division – they’ve only shipped twelve goals in thirteen away games – so I think we’ll see a much tighter game than the bookies do today, irrespective of the absent Podgorski in midfield – that hinders their attacking game more than anything. Piast do miss defender Matras but they have cover.
Therefore, I’ve absolutely no idea how under 2.5 goals is priced as generously as 28/25 here – it just doesn’t make sense. Therefore, my call is under 2.5 goals!
Team news – Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Biala miss Cieslinski whereas Piast Gliwice miss Pietrek, Podgorski, and Matras.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 28/25.