TFT Issue 106!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
B36 Torshavn vs HB Torshavn – home win at 5/4.
Tempting, as HB Torshavn are shit without av Flotum in attack. They lack finesse and it really shows. However, B36 captain Matras was dismissed last match as he gave away the free-kick that cost B36 the three points as they succumbed to a 2-2 draw due to a free-kick from Hojgaard. Without Matras, I’m not sure B36 have the leadership to overcome their local rivals so I’ll give this one a miss today.
Double chance
1X:
BATE Borisov
FC Honka Espoo
FC Lahti
Energie Cottbus
Vaslui
Celtic
Vojvodina Novi Sad
Red Star Belgrade
Malmo FF
Trabzonspor
Fenerbahce
Dnipro Dnepropetrovsk
Dynamo Kiev
Featured game
Alta vs Hodd – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Divisjon 1 game in northern Norway between Alta and Hodd. Both sides have started their respective campaigns well so we should be set for a good game here.
There are three sides in the top two tiers of Norwegian football that have a terrific advantage geographically during congested fixtures schedules and they’re Tromso, Alta, and Bodo Glimt, especially the first two. Why? Well, the general distance that most sides have to travel to face them is over a thousand miles and that can be somewhat tiring after a few games in a row!
That’s one factor I’m hoping to utilise here. Both sides have played NM Cupen games a few days ago but Alta were at home whereas Hodd were in Kristiansund, which is some seven or eight hundred miles from Alta approximately and considering that it’s Hodd’s third game in seven days, you have to consider how tired it’s got to have made the high-flying, newly-promoted outfit. Unsurprisingly, this run of games has taken its toll on their team with plenty of players on the absentee/potential absentee list today for the visitors, the most notable of which are regular defender Klock and emerging youngster Heltne. Hodd are not ideally placed for such a lengthy trip to northern Norway and I think they’ll struggle here.
Another factor to consider is that Alta naturally use artificial turf at their home ground. Well, they couldn’t use much else as they’re in the Arctic Circle, could they?! That always plays to their advantage and especially so in these circumstances as Hodd play on natural turf in their home games.
Alta are virtually at full-strength with the exception of Finnish central midfielder Niskaal so I expect a good display from them today, especially on the back of a morale-boosting derby win against Tromsdalen. With ex-Tromso hitman Vegard Braathen in such good form and Alta looking very solid as a unit, I have to take the home win at 4/5 here.
Alta miss Niskala and Overvik whereas Hodd miss Klock, Kleppe, and Orsal whilst having doubts over Grodas and Heltne.
Verdict: Alta to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Dinamo Brest vs Torpedo Zhodino – home win at evens.
Dinamo Brest let me down a bit last match as they only drew 1-1 with Neman Grodno and I was expecting more goals. Unfortunately, I was unable to stream the game live but match reports afterward suggest that Dinamo Brest peppered the Neman Grodno goal in the second half with plenty of corners and chances but failed to take them so that at least gives me some partial faith in them again today.
So, yeah – Dinamo Brest are very good at home. They love playing on their artificial turf! Had it not been for Naftan’s freak 6-0 demolition of Dnepr Mogilev then Dinamo Brest would be the leading goalscorers in the Vysshaya Liga when it comes to playing at home, which should alert you as to how good Dinamo are in front of goal. Defensively, they can be a tad calamitous as they’re still trying to integrate David and Tarasenko into their defence following the sale of Ukrainian defender Berezovskiy to Naftan Novopolotsk. In attack, though, new target man Lebedev has a swift duo alongside him in Mozolevski and Khvashchinskiy and ultimately, their attack makes Dinamo Brest a feared side on their home turf. The only side to win here this season that wasn’t the hosts is reigning champions BATE Borisov; everyone else has struggled here, as you’d expect from a traditionally strong home team.
Unfortunately, Dinamo Brest are today facing Torpedo Zhodino and I just hate betting against them. What you have to understand about Torpedo Zhodino is that they’re a very galvanised unit. They don’t have any stars, so to speak – especially with Levitski having joined Gomel pre-season. As ever, they’ve wheeled and dealed pre-season following their near-relegation last season and as usual, they’ve barely got enough quality to survive. However, I’d make a case for this side fighting more than any other side in the Vysshaya Liga because that’s all they do – they battle to the end. Subsequently, if the side that Torpedo are facing either don’t work hard or aren’t playing well then they generally won’t beat them. However, Dinamo Brest are playing well at the moment, especially so at home. Given that Torpedo have lost their last two away games in a row whilst looking rather ineffectual in front of goal (unsurprisingly!), I have to go against them today.
As long as Dinamo Brest show up then these odds look a complete joke. Dinamo Brest are one of the best home sides in Belarus along with BATE Borisov and Naftan Novopolotsk so how they’re not 4/5 against a side that they’re a lot better than is beyond me. Thus, my call here is the home win.
Verdict: Dinamo Brest to win at evens.
FC Honka Espoo vs RoPS Rovaniemi – home win with -1.5 handicap at 9/10.
To my knowledge, there are no Finns that are members on this site and I’m presuming that none of you are as sad as I am in that I follow the Veikkausliiga so allow me to tell you how things are!
Ok, first of all, Honka can’t defend. If they keep a clean sheet then it’s an inspirational goalkeeping display, terrible attacking from the opposing side, all of the opposing team dying, or a miracle. I’m not really exaggerating, either! However, what Honka lack in composure and defensive stability they make up for in attacking potency. Their results thus far don’t show that to be correct but I assure you that it is. They outplayed Inter Turku with ten men and somehow lost 4-0 thanks to catastrophic defending. They annihlated JJK Jyvaskyla but a man of the match display from JJK’s goalkeeper saved the day. They finally got their season going by winning 0-1 at MyPa last match in a game that the hosts were barely in and it was only a matter of time before Honka broke through. Ironically, it was the pitch that fucked Honka’s short passing game up! The goal that new signing Dudu scored involved him rounding the goalkeeper and nearly tumbling to the ground such was the rocky boulders that were on the field! However, my point is that Honka are attacking well and if they take their chances then they’ll score a lot more goals than you’d think from their current statistics.
Rather ironically, RoPS are massively punching above their weight right now. This side has a good defence and nothing else so you can imagine my surprise at them being the joint-second highest goalscoring side in the Veikkausliiga right now. Without a word of a lie, though – all of their goals have come from bad defending and/or set pieces. They don’t have the creativity to score goals from open play and although new Mexican striker Rivera finally gives them someone who can put the ball in the net, this side is still going to struggle massively until they use that wad of cash in their bank to bring in reinforcements for all those sacked African players. RoPS deserve respect for their spirit and defence, especially with arising German hero Gotzl at the heart of it, but they’re two or three classes below Honka here and it really should show, in my eyes.
Presuming that Honka take their chances and that RoPS try to park the bus as they usually do away from home, I think we’ll see Honka easily clear the handicap here, even if they concede. Honka have way too much firepower for their newly-promoted opponents and 9/10 is decent odds on the -1.5 handicap here.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to beat the -1.5 handicap at 9/10.
Jaro Pietarsaari vs KuPS Kuopio – away win with draw no bet at evens.
I’d advise using some caution here as Jaro showed glimpses last match that they’re returning to their best and if that’s the case then this game may be a “no bet”.
Nonetheless, I’m keen to pursue this tip because I can’t believe that Jaro’s problems have all been solved overnight. They really miss Eremenko, Novikov, and Matrone in central midfield as it leaves a gaping hole and it makes it very hard for Jaro to create chances. Agyeman improves each game, admittedly, and their strikers Zeze and Niang are good if given the appropriate service. However, from what I’ve seen of Jaro so far this season, they’re not creating chances anywhere near enough for their frontmen and that obviously leads to a lack of goals scored. They scored three goals last match during an impressive 1-3 win at TPS Turku – well, impressive on paper, at least! However, I would ask you to bear in mind that TPS Turku are still very much integrating their new players and aren’t playing as a unit yet, hence conceding so many goals. Additionally, if you get chance, have a look at the goals that Jaro scored. The first one was dropped at Tula’s feet six yards out by goalkeeper Lehtovaara. The second one was a dubious penalty that bounced in off the woodwork by Niang. The third one was a free-kick from near the half-way line that TPS Turku’s defenders failed to clear and Jaro finished it off. Bluntly, the three goals somewhat flattered Jaro in a game that probably didn’t merit four goals.
KuPS, on the other hand, are good. Sure, they sold Dudu pre-season to Honka but they signed legend Nwakaeme back and now he’s reaching peak condition again, KuPS are naturally starting to play well again. To be completely fair, their first two games of the Veikkausliiga were against two of the sides expected to finish in the top three (a.k.a. the sides that will finish above them!), namely Inter Turku and HJK Helsinki respectively. They finally had a more “friendly” game last match and although conceded a stupid set piece against an impotent VPS Vaasa side, they proceeded to outplay them for the whole game and eventually finished them off with a 2-1 win. KuPS have some very good players in their team, especially in Ilo, Venalainen, and Oravainen to name a few. KuPS aren’t good enough without Dudu to repeat their heroics from last season but they’re definitely top five material in my eyes. Whether they’ll have the stamina to deal with the prolonged Veikkausliiga season or not this time around remains to be seen, however.
Either way, KuPS are a better side than Jaro overall, in my view. Jaro will most likely sign Eremenko on loan again when the Scottish Premier League season ends but until then, they lack a central midfield. KuPS can take advantage of that here and with their excellent firepower, I don’t see KuPS losing this one. For me, there’s value in the away win with draw no bet cover.
Verdict: KuPS Kuopio to win with draw no bet at evens.
PoPa Pori vs AC Oulu – away win at 3/2.
This game is a bit of a contrast in quality, really. PoPa Pori decided that after playing so well in the Ykkonen last season and getting so close to being promoted to the Veikkausliiga that they’d sell some of their best players without adequately replacing them. Yes, they’ve sold strikers Lehtonen and Kokko to TPS Turku and VPS Vaasa respectively and considering that leaves them with Makela and old Sumiala in attack, PoPa Pori are nowhere near as potent. Sumiala was a good attacker in his day but he’s past his best now, hence not getting in the team any more. Makela has struggled with injury and thus has only made one appearance this season. PoPa did try to improve their creativity by signing Brazilian midfielder Dema from HJK Helsinki and Guinea midfielder Fofana from FC Lahti, which has helped them. However, they’re missing those strikers and it really showed last match in a crazy 2-3 defeat against relegation candidates Hameenlinna, despite PoPa outplaying their inferior opponents for large periods of the game. PoPa simply failed to convert their chances and were duly punished due to slack defending. That defensive problem is unlikely to improve here as Viljanan is suspended today and Pihlainen is injured. Their fellow defender Vuorinen is a doubt, too. PoPa have further absentee issues but those I’ve mentioned are the most prominent and if they can concede three goals at home to a poor and frankly impotent Hameenlinna side then they’re in real trouble today against arguably the best side in the Ykkonen.
Let’s look at AC Oulu now. This side is only in the Ykkonen as they were refused a Veikkausliiga license due to financial difficulties. However, unlike most sides in that situation, AC Oulu kept hold of almost all of their players. Indeed, AC Oulu only lost Hurme and Karkkainen and although they are blows, we’re still looking at a side that is good enough to be playing Veikkausliiga football. AC Oulu weren’t at their scintillating best against KPV Kokkola in a 1-1 draw in their opening Ykkonen game but they still felt they should have won the game as they created more chances than their opponents. They’ve still got veteran winger Nurmela in their team and he’s still too good for the Ykkonen despite his advancing years. They’ve got good attacking options in ex-RoPS Rovaniemi academy striker Majava and experienced Ykkonen attacker Pennanen. Additionally, AC Oulu have drafted in KuPS Kuopio defeder Formichev, Haka Valkeakoski attacker Boateng, RoPS Rovaniemi midfielder Owusu-Ansah, and most recently, Boden hitman Stafsula. They’re signing players too good to be in the Ykkonen and that’s ironic because AC Oulu are too good to be in this division!
I can’t really understand odds of 3/2 on the away win when I see the strength of AC Oulu here. True nough, they do still need to integrate some new players but with the above information in mind, the away win really appeals to me here.
Team news – PoPa Pori miss Viljanen, Koivunen, Aalto, and Pihlainen whilst having doubts over Ruisniemi and Vuorinen.
Verdict: AC Oulu to win at 3/2.
Malmo FF vs Orebro – home win at 4/5.
Malmo haven’t been at their best lately but I’d point to tricky fixtures at Elfsborg Boras (on artificial turf) and at home to bitter rivals IFK Goteborg as difficult games. The result at Syrianska Sodertalje was unexpected but it’s what happens if you waste your chances, I suppose. Malmo got their groove back mid-week by drubbing Superettan outfit Jonkoping Sodra in the Svenska Cupen whilst being able to rest Hamad, Aubynn, Fernandez, Larsson, Andersson, Molins etc. so they should be at full-strength today. Well, I say full-strength – number one goalkeeper Dahlin is still out injured and Mehmeti joins him on the sidelines. In Larsson, Rexhepi, Molins, Hamad, and Wilton Figueiredo, Malmo have more than enough firepower to score goals here and if they do then I envision them winning this game.
Why? Well, Orebro are a good team and they’re well-organised but they lack goals. They rely a lot on Bedoya and Gerzic in midfield and new signing Haddad in attack but without them, they really struggle to score goals. It’s no coincidence that Orebro missed Haddad and Gerzic at home to Kalmar FF in their last Allsvenskan game and lost 1-2. Well, they’re missing again today and considering that they’re not even on their beloved artificial turf today, Orebro are in for a nightmare game against the Allsvenskan giants. Paulinho was signed to ease the reliance on the afore-mentioned players and the Brazilian has featured a few times for Orebro since his transfer but he’s not gelled with the team yet so I’m not too concerned. Bear in mind that Orebro played 120 minutes mid-week in the Svenska Cupen as they laboured to victory at Superettan outfit Ljungskile without having had the luxury of resting players, unlike Malmo FF, and you can see why I think they’ll struggle here.
For me, Malmo are priced far too generously at 4/5 here and I expect the odds to drop sooner rather than later. Malmo are a better team than Orebro and should have ample opportunities to demonstrate that today. Malmo have won six out of the last seven head-to-heads between these two clubs and although Orebro are better than they’ve been for a long time now, they ironically miss the main player that has propelled them to this position – Gerzic. For me, this game has “home win” written all over it.
Team news – Malmo FF miss Dahlin and Mehmeti whilst having doubts over Sudic whereas Orebro miss Gerzic and Haddad.
Verdict: Malmo FF to win at 4/5.
Basel vs Thun – away win with +1.5 handicap at evens.
Basel are what – 2/5 to win this game? That’s utterly hilarious and anyone who takes that is a mug! Yes, Basel have to win this game but have they convinced anyone lately with shoddy defending and nervous displays? They’ve not convinced me.
Basel have the best attackers in Switzerland in Streller and Frei respectively, addmitedly. If they’re serviced correctly than Basel can and will score goals. However, Basel are not secure at the back and ex-Basel player Murat Yakin, who is now in charge of Thun, knows it and knows his old team very well. I don’t know how Yakin has done it but he’s moulded Thun into a side that nobody can beat! Seriously, no Super League side has lost as few away games in the Super League as Thun, and that includes leading twosome FC Zurich and Basel respectively. Thun have lost just twice away from home all season long because they’ve got the best defence in Switzerland, averaging conceding less than a goal per away game. Thun actually won 1-3 at Basel earlier this season in the Super League and considering that they’ve won 0-1 at Young Boys Bern, drawn 0-0 at FC Zurich, and drawn 2-2 at Young Boys Bern during previous visits to the bigger sides in the division, why on earth are Basel so short to win this game?
It doesn’t make sense, does it? Basel could win this game and on paper, they really should. However, the same can be said of FC Zurich and of Young Boys Bern and both of them have failed to win against the iron team from Thun so what makes Basel different here? They need it more but they’re not handling pressure well and they’re defending like idiots so I’m happy to oppose Basel here. Basel miss integral centre-back Abraham for this game through suspension, which makes things worse for Basel as Thun are more than capable of scoring goals on the road.
Therefore, giving the visitors a +1.5 goal head start at evens looks a real gift here. This handicap advantage would mean that Thun have won every away game this season and if Basel think this game will be easy then they’re going to have to think again. There’s no value in the 1×2 market to me as Basel may nick it but there should be plenty of value in Thun +1.5 at a generous price of evens here.
Team news – Basel miss Abraham.
Verdict: Thun to win with a +1.5 handicap at evens.