TFT Issue 108!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Flora Tallinn vs Trans Narva – under 2.5 goals at 7/5.
Today’s featured game is the Meistriliiga encounter between reigning champions Flora Tallinn and usual challengers Trans Narva. I think it’s still fair to say that Flora Tallinn are the better of these two sides but will it be as evident today as normal? I doubt it.
Flora Tallinn have only won two out of their four home games in the Meistriliiga this season but have won five out of six on the road so it’s easier to see what they prefer currently. Generally, Flora haven’t been convincing in any of their home games this season barring their 6-0 win against Ajax Lasnamae, which is self-explanitory as Ajax Lasnamae are a really poor side and will be relegated this season, ending their brief period in the Meistriliiga. Aside from that, Flora have laboured to a 1-0 win against a young and able Maag Tammeka Tartu side but Flora should be scoring three or four times against that defence. Either side of their 6-0 win against Ajax Lasnamae was a 2-2 draw against high-flying Sillamae Kalev and a disappointing 0-0 draw against defensive mogul Viljandi.
So what’s wrong with Flora? Well, it’s simply goalscoring. Their defence is as rock-solid as ever but they lack firepower. That was present at the start of the season and I couldn’t figure out why then but it does make more sense at the current time. You see, Flora Tallinn’s attack is built around big Sander Post, who both scored and created a lot of goals. However, they sold him at the end of March to Aalesund in Norway and it’s no surprise that Flora Tallinn haven’t scored more than twice in a game since his departure with the exception of their 6-0 drubbing of Ajax Lasnamae, which again, is because Ajax are crap. Now, Flora Tallinn do have a talented midfield with Finnish player Minkenen and Estonian duo Luts and Mosnikov, the latter of which is one of the finest in Estonia. Those three provide a lot of support to the remaining attackers, which in practice, is the Anier twosome, both of which are very young. Therefore, Flora have enough behind their strikers to edge games but not enough to really destroy sides any longer – well, barring Ajax Lasnamae and Kuressaare!
The absence of Post really suits Trans Narva here. Trans Narva don’t attack like Flora Tallinn, Levadia Tallinn, or Sillamae Kalev. No, they play a much more composed and rigid style of football as they seek to keep clean sheets and hit sides on the counter-attack. They’re good at keeping the ball and they’re hard to break down but their rigid style means that they don’t score many goals themselves. Latvian striker Cekulajevs is in the form of his life at the moment so Trans Narva do have a potent goal threat. However, they lack the midfield that Flora Tallinn boast and that does damage them when it comes to breaking through sides. Trans Narva subsequently play an even more defensive style than normal away from home, hence their low-scoring away games in the Meistriliiga so far this season e.g. 1-1 at Nomme Kalju, 1-1 at Maag Tammeka Tartu. They played a tight game at Levadia Tallinn but lost 2-1 thanks to a penalty from Nahk and won 0-3 at Sillamae Kalev, somewhat surprisingly, as Sillamae Kalev capitulated. As you can plainly see, however, Trans Narva are a very under 2.5 goals side and that’s the side I expect to see.
Over the past few years, head-to-heads have varied between these two sides between overs and unders. However, it’s important to note that they’ve met twice this season (once in the Meistriliiga and once in the Estonian Cup) and each occasion has gone under 2.5 goals with Flora Tallinn winning 0-2 each time. In fact, the most recent of those encounters was last match although Flora owe a great deal of their clean sheet to an outstanding display from Meertis in goal. A similar scoreline today wouldn’t surprise me although I’d lean more toward 1-0 today as Trans Narva will sit back today instead of pushing on as they had to do when playing in the previous two games as they were played in Narva. This is the time when Flora tend to struggle and let’s face it – whichever side scores will sit on it because both sides are hard to break down.
In my view we have a good case for under 2.5 goals here. I’m staggered that the odds are 7/5 on this selection with the above in mind but I’m happy to ride it. I appreciate that these are two big sides and if both show up then a goal-fest is possible but I still wouldn’t price under 2.5 goals at such long odds here – it just doesn’t make sense. Therefore, my call is under 2.5 goals here.
Team news – Trans Narva miss Abramenko.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 7/5.