TFT Issue 113!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
FC Honka Espoo vs TPS Turku – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter in Espoo between supposed title contenders Honka and hit-and-miss TPS Turku. Neither side is performing as they should thus far for varying reasons but that should lead to an interesting game here.
First of all – Honka. I don’t know why they do it, to be honest, but this side cannot defend at all. This was well and truly confirmed as they conceded at a poor, impotent, and nine-man Haka Valkeakoski side to draw 2-2 in their last game despite one goalkeeper being sent off and the other being injured at the time. Honka are dynamite in front of goal – not that they’ve taken as many chances as they should have done so far – but this side is so weak and vulnerable in defence that it’s untrue. I’d love to attribute it to the youthful average age of the squad but it’s not just that; there’s a lot of stupidity in there too.
You could argue against the above with statistics i.e. two clean sheets from their last three games, which is perfectly true. However, I’d counter it with the fact that Honka have faced three of the worst sides in the Veikkausliiga in quick succession now and have stumbled past two of them before succumbing to a frankly embarrassing draw at Haka Valkeakoski. The goals were soft too, you know? Really poor defending all around. The only game that Honka have played in the Veikkausliiga this season that should have gone over 2.5 goals but didn’t was their 0-0 draw with JJK Jyvaskyla and on chances alone, that game should have been 3-3 anyway – only inspired goalkeeping displays from both sides kept it goalless. Their 4-0 defeat at Inter Turku was harsh but over 2.5 goals was on the cards there. Honka’s attack is a constant threat with Dudu settling in nicely and dangerous Demba Savage alongside him. They’ve got a good, pacey, and creative midfield behind them too, which helps. Their defence, though – it’s so poor that it’s not even funny. If anyone’s interested then let me know and I’ll post a couple of videos to show you what I mean.
Can TPS Turku take advantage of that lax approach to defending though? I think so. They’re still lacking defensively themselves as they struggle to integrate all of their new players but their attack is still dangerous. Last match was all about Mika Aaritalo, who is one of my favourite strikers in this division as he has all that is required in a striker – pace, aerial ability, ability to beat a man, and finesse. Aaritalo was a pain in the arse for JJK Jyvaskyla’s defence last match, skinning their defence and coolly slotting home for his first goal and chasing down a somewhat hopeless ball but managed to use his strength against the defender before again coolly finishing. TPS Turku didn’t miss the suspended Tarvajarvi as much as anticipated and they actually looked good going forward, for a change. However, their defence was all over their place and the result alone suggests that as they threw away a two-goal lead to lose 2-3 in the last twenty-five minutes of the game. It’s just simple errors that they’re making and a side like Honka can really take advantage of that.
TPS have gone over 2.5 goals in three out of their last four games because they score goals but can’t defend well currently, just like Honka. The difference between the two sides is that TPS’ defence will improve as the season winds on; Honka’s won’t. Despite TPS’ new signings, they’re still not quite as good as Honka and that may show in the full-time score today, although to be honest, I’d completely avoid the 1×2 market here. Instead, I’m opting for the generously-priced over 2.5 goals here because both sides can and do score goals and neither can hold a lead for shit so there we are – over 2.5 goals at 9/10 is my call.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
JJK Jyvaskyla vs KuPS Kuopio – home win at 11/10.
Despite the unavoidable fact that JJK’s defence is rapidly becoming the weakest in the Veikkausliiga, I’m still keen on them winning this one today as their firepower is growing from game to game.
It took JJK a bit of time to ease into their stride in the Veikkausliiga this season but they still created a lot of chances in Espoo against Honka in their 0-0 draw and I think it’s fair to say they earned their point. They took one of a few chances created against MyPa Anjalankoski in their home game and won 1-0, which kick-started their season properly. Since then, all three of their games have easily gone over 2.5 goals with a 1-2 win at RoPS Rovaniemi in difficult conditions, a 4-2 win against Haka Valkeakoski (would have been 4-0 barring two sublime Haka goals) and a dramatic 2-3 win at TPS Turku last match despite trailing 2-0 toward the end of the game. JJK have a strong never-say-die attitude and with Hyyrynen looking clinical and Kari scoring pearlers like he did against Haka Valkeakoski, JJK aren’t even noticing the absence of returned legend Wusu in attack. Indeed, with Virtanen and Manninen behind them – who have been immense this season – they’ve looked so dangerous that even Gruborovics has found it hard to break into the team. JJK’s defence needs a lot of work but their attack absolutely doesn’t. The only way to stop JJK is to be better than them (which is HJK Helsinki alone!), to hope they have an off day, or to score a lot of goals and I don’t see any of those factors materialising today.
KuPS Kuopio are another side that I like and had this game been mid-season then I wouldn’t have touched it but KuPS have been rather fortunate of late and I think the odds are going a bit too much off their recent form rather than their actual displays. They shouldn’t have beaten IFK Mariehamn last match – 1-1 or 1-2 was the most fair scoreline, in my eyes. They were nervy in the game at home against VPS Vaasa but eventually stole the 2-1 win and they were somwhat lacklustre during their 1-1 draw at Jaro Pietarsaari. Let’s face it – the return of Nwakaeme has done a great deal of good for KuPS’ attack (he scored a beauty last match too!) and KuPS do have a good arsenal in attack with Ilo and Venalainen complimenting the Nigerian attacker well. However, they’re not 100% cohesive yet and it does show in their games if you watch them. When they’ve adjusted, they’ll be a strong attacking force, I’m sure – I just don’t see it yet. They’re taken their chances well so far but that might not be enough today with JJK scoring for fun at the moment. KuPS’ defence is ok but nothing special; they can concede a few times here if the hosts turn it on.
The final point I’d make is that KuPS Kuopio have a Suomen Cup Semi-Final in Aland against IFK Mariehamn in three days time – they should really look to rotate the squad here and they’re in trouble if they do that. All in all, this isn’t a good time for KuPS to face in-form JJK and although quite a lot of goals in this game wouldn’t surprise me, I still find a lot of value in the home win at 11/10.
Verdict: JJK Jyvaskyla to win at 11/10.
Hameenlinna vs KooTeePee Kotka – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Hmm – relegation fodder versus under-achieving Ykkonen heavyweight. Result? Under 2.5 goals.
That’s my approach to it, anyway! Hameenlinna have done well in their last two games – really well, in fact. They’ve won 2-3 at PoPa Pori and 0-2 at Viikingit Helsinki, both of which surprised me. PoPa are really weak this season, admittedly, but I didn’t forsee more than a draw for Hameenlinna there. They won 0-2 at Viikingit last match, which was far more surprising, despite Viikingit’s departures pre-season. Viikingit will struggle to score goals this year but their defence is decent enough. 0-0 or 1-0 would have been realistic; 0-2 is just bizarre.
However, Hameenlinna today face one of the strongest defences in the Ykkonen and they genuinely don’t have the power to shatter KooTeePee Kotka, in my view. There’s a bit of experience in the Hameenlinna team but as ever, they’ll be battling against relegation this year due to a lack of quality so don’t pay too much attention to their results thus far. I’ll give it to them that they’ve got a strong battling spirit and that they don’t concede goals easily themselves but they’re not a goalscoring side and that will be exposed sooner or later.
Visitors KooTeePee Kotka are notorious for being a boring and defensive side. They defend because that’s what they’re very good at but their attack leaves a lot to be desired. Some have tipped KooTeePee Kotka to be promoted to the Veikkausliiga this season but I’d be surprised to see it given their complete lack of goal threat so far this season. I mean, seriously – they’ve bagged one goal in three games and although you can argue that they’ve had two hard games, I’d still say that a promotion candidate should be at least scoring. Ikavalko is a good striker and it’ll be interesting to see how he develops with Santala. KooTeePee do have a strong unit of a team that won’t concede many in the Ykkonen but are their strikers familiar enough to bang lots of goals in? Not really, and not against a Hameenlinna side that prioritises not losing over winning.
Historically, this game tends to go under 2.5 goals and I’d be surprised to see otherwise today. It’s actually gone under 2.5 goals in three out of the last four meetings between these two sides in the Ykkonen and this one should be more “underish” than ever, in my eyes. Hameenlinna want to avoid defeat and KooTeePee are finally finding their feet and being hard to break down with all three of their games so far going under 2.5 goals. I think the odds on the away win are generous but I’m not touching the 1×2 market. Instead, under 2.5 goals at 4/5 is begging to be backed so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.