TFT Issue 116!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio
Today’s featured game is the Suomen Cup Semi-Final in Aland between IFK Mariehamn and KuPS Kuopio.
First of all – I’m fully aware that I don’t cover this competition in general but I’m making an exception today as these odds are far, far too long on IFK Mariehamn.
So – why IFK today? For me, they’ve demonstrated a real sense of unity this season and with the continued emergence of midfield starlet Forsell, I can’t write off the hosts here at all. Their home record on paper looks somewhat patchy and although the reasoning behind that would atypically be the integration of new players in their squad, in this instance, I believe it’s generally bad luck. They could have and should have beaten RoPS Rovaniemi in their first Veikkausliiga home game of the season for stupid defending led to them conceding three times. They had a hard-fought game with TPS Turku in the following encounter which didn’t really deserve a winner but TPS Turku edged it 0-1. In their last home game, however, IFK Mariehamn demonstrated tactical brilliance in their best display of the season thus far, overcoming reigning champions HJK Helsinki 2-0. There’s still work to do in this squad and Lyyski isn’t stupid enough to overlook that. IFK Mariehamn are far from invulnerable, after all. However, their four new signings from Tampere United have all started to bed well, especially striker Kangaskolkka, and subsequently IFK Mariehamn look a good side to be betting on this season, especially at home. Unfortunately, the hosts do miss their four new signings from Tampere as they’re all cup-tied but there’s still enough in their ranks to edge this one today, in my view.
Visitors KuPS Kuopio enter this game on the back of a derby defeat at JJK Jyvaskyla, which won’t have aided their mood. KuPS tried to be pretty clever last match and rest Ilo and Venelainen but they soon realised that the only side who can afford to rest players and still have the depth to win games is HJK Helsinki. KuPS were beaten 2-0 and they also had to bring on Ilo and Venelainen in the second-half of that game as they sought to salvage something from the derby, which ultimately proved to be futile. It wasn’t just their attacking in that game that let KuPS down, however – it was their general play. There was a lot of “pass to Nwakaeme and see what he can do” and not enough unity. Indeed, this backs up my previous views of KuPS having been decidedly fortunate in some of their results thus far this season. I still rate them as a good side and underestimating them would be foolish but they’re not as good – yet – as some of their results would suggest. Indeed, KuPS have a long way to go when playing away from home, especially – they’ve lost twice and drawn once in three Veikkausliiga away games this season already. Will that record improve today? I’d be surprised to see it.
A factor that has arisen in Finland this year is travel due to there being more Veikkausliiga games this season. IFK Mariehamn were fortunate enough to play their last game at home a few days ago but KuPS are travelling down from the valley of a thousand lakes and that’s a good few hundred miles at least. They’ve not rested their stars as much as they’d have liked and they’re facing an inspired host. They should be very nervous of this trip!
Weaknesses – KuPS’ most prominent weakness is their defence. They’ve conceded in every Veikkausliiga game this season and that doesn’t bode well here. IFK Mariehamn aren’t a fantastic side and without their four new signings from Tampere United, they revert into a decent side rather than a good side.
However, you’ll rarely find sides that win at IFK Mariehamn when they play as well at home as they did last match against HJK Helsinki and that’s what I’m banking on here. Forsell has been magnificent this season and he can lead IFK Mariehamn to victory here. For me, the odds on the home win are too long here, especially against a KuPS side that concedes goals for fun, so I’m backing IFK Mariehamn to win this one at 7/5.
Team news – IFK Mariehamn miss Kojola, Kangaskolkka, Emet, and Vartto.
Verdict: IFK Mariehamn to win at 7/5.