TFT Issue 117!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Anzhi Makhachkala – home win at 3/4.
Today’s featured game is the Russian Premier League encounter between Lokomotiv Moscow and Anzhi Makhachkala. I’ve distributed my fair share of criticism at Lokomotiv Moscow over the past couple of years but they’ve always maintained being a good home side. Visitors Anzhi are still getting to grips with their new signings and I don’t expect much from them here as a result.
I’ve really got to hand it to Lokomotiv Moscow. After Semin and Aliev left, I expected a mid-table finish at best for them but Krasnozhan has come in, done his job really well, and has ultimately turned Lokomotiv into a really strong unit with some decent individuals. Indeed, Lokomotiv have impressed me far more than any other Russian side this season and a 0-0 draw at Rubin Kazan’ last match only impressed me more. They’re unbeaten in six games now, having won four times along the way, and the only two games they’ve not won were their trips to the top two from last season – a 1-1 draw at Zenit St.Petersburg and a 0-0 draw at Rubin Kazan’ – so it’s hardly a poor record. Rostov-na-Donu are the only side to face Lokomotiv away from home this season and leave with a point as the other four visiting sides have all been outplayed, the most recent of which was Terek Grozny in a 4-0 drubbing. Lokomotiv still have work to do to become the giant that they once were but what Krasnozhan has brought to this team is the spirit he had with Spartak Nal’chik and it’s that spirit alone that prevented them from being relegated so you can see how good he is at his job. Some managers have it and some don’t but he definitely does. Lokomotiv’s success tends to hinge around their midfield, which has some very good passers of the ball. As we all know, possession tends to lead to goals and that will again be key today. Either way, Lokomotiv have proven their worth time and time again lately, especially at home, and I expect them to do the same again today.
Anzhi Makhachkala and their money means that they’re a side to be kept an eye on in future. However, I’ve not seen anywhere near enough consistency from this team this season as to suggest that they could take a point here. Embarassingly, they somehow lost at impotent Terek Grozny in their last match, which makes it two consecutive games without even scoring for Anzhi now. Worryingly, they’ve failed to score in three out of their five away games in the Premier League this season now and despite the obvious ability of Diego Tardelli, Jan Holenda, and Mbark Bossouffa, Anzhi just aren’t consistently reliable yet, especially in attack. You’d imagine that they’ve got enough individual ability to win the odd game against susceptible sides but to overcome their hosts today they’re going to have to score a lot of goals and I don’t see how they’ll do it. Don’t get me wrong – Lokomotiv aren’t brilliant in defence – but Anzhi aren’t reliable yet so I’m happy to oppose them here.
Ultimately, we have one solid, in-form unit of a team with a great man-motivator in charge hosting their moneybag opponents who have some talented individuals but little cohesion. For me, this game has a Lokomotiv win written all over it as Anzhi are conceding too many goals and not scoring enough and odds of 3/4 look too generous on a Loko win here as a result.
Verdict: Lokomotiv Moscow to win at 3/4.
Additional games
B71 Sandur vs HB Torshavn – away win at 4/5.
Honestly, these are some of the most hilarious odds I’ve seen for some time now.
Let’s just clarify a couple of things here:
1. B71 Sandur have lost eight out of nine Meistaradeildin games already this season, averaging conceding over four goals per game.
2. B71 Sandur have lost all four home games this season, averaging conceding nearly six goals per home game.
3. HB Torshavn are one of the biggest names in Faroese football and always finish in the top three.
4. B71 Sandur still can’t play their home games at home whilst it’s being renovated so yet again, this game is being played on neutral soil.
5. HB Torshavn have won their last two away games against B71 Sandur.
Anyone else think these odds are hilarious? I mean, I’m happy to oppose HB Torshavn this season as they look pretty poor in front of goal but that’s against sides with some quality – not shitty B71 Sandur! Andrew av Flotum is looking a bit sharper now so HB have more threat in attack. They lost 1-4 against KI last match, true enough, but that was more about KI doing what KI do best – counter-attacking. HB have some good players and a good number of internationals; they’re more than capable of beating any Meistaradeildin side on their day. B71 Sandur are more capable than they look right now but after such a barren run, I can’t see them getting off one of the biggest sides in the country. For me, the odds on HB Torshavn winning this game are far, far too generous today!
Verdict: HB Torshavn to win at 4/5.
FBK Kaunas vs Zalgiris Vilnius – under 3.5 goals at evens.
This is another one that baffles me. How are Zalgiris 1/5 to win this game?! They’ve had a really good season thus far and they should win the game but those odds are ridiculous!
FBK Kaunas are crap nowadays. They’re nowhere near the side that they used to be a few years ago and they’re likely to be relegated from the A Lyga this season. Seven defeats in eleven A Lyga games tells its own story on that front. However, it’s worth pointing out that they’ve lost most of those games away from home. During five home games, they’ve only lost twice and they rarely get destroyed here. They don’t score enough goals to threaten sides with their own attack but they do tend to keep scorelines respectable. Three out of their five home games have gone under 2.5 goals due to not scoring or conceding many goals and I expect more of the same today.
Visitors Zalgiris Vilnius have done well this season, as I’ve mentioned. However, five out of their seven A Lyga wins this season have been at home in their fortress where all A Lyga sides struggle. Away from home, Zalgiris reveal their true colours with dour defensive displays, rarely scoring and conceding goals themselves. They’ve gone under 2.5 goals in all five of their away games so far and have taken some good points i.e. a draw from their trip to Suduva Marijampole. Even on the two occasions that they’ve won the road, they’ve been fairly average, winning 0-1 at Kruoja Pakruojis and 0-2 at newly-promoted Dainava. Zalgiris just don’t produce the goods away from home – period – and it’s not just this season either.
The sole bit of light I can shed on these odds is that the game is being played at a neutral venue in Marijampole but even so – Zalgiris don’t travel well so I don’t see why such generous odds are available. Under 2.5 goals goals tempted me massively but honestly, under 3.5 goals being priced at evens is hilariously good value. I don’t doubt Zalgiris can win this game and they probably will but I don’t see how they’ll score a lot of goals. For me, under 3.5 goals has to be taken here, especially with Zalgiris’ main striker Astrauskas absent through suspension.
Team news – Zalgiris Vilnius miss Astrauskas.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at evens.