TFT Issue 119!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Do yourselves a big favour and avoid betting on Albinoleffe vs Siena, Sassuolo vs Reggina, Varese vs Piacenza, and Ascoli vs Triestina today.
Double chance
1X:
Corinthians
Union Espanola
Naestved
HJK Helsinki
LOSC Lille
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Liepajas Metalurgs
Slask Wroclaw
Legia Warsaw
OFK Belgrade
Hajduk Kula
Featured game
Jaro Pietarsaari vs Inter Turku – away win at 5/4.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter between Jaro Pietarsaari and Inter Turku. Last season, I’d have probably gone for the home win here but times are a little different now.
I still have a lot of respect for Jaro Pietarsaari under talented boss Eremenko and I respect the little run of form they’ve put together lately, especially as they enter this game on the back of a derby win against VPS Vaasa. However, they still miss their central midfielders and it’s in games like these where I expect it to count. Novikov, Eremenko, Matrone – they’ve not been substantially replaced yet. Agyeman was a good signing for Eremenko’s team and Kula is having a good season but they’re not world-beaters in the centre of the park and that is going to do them damage ultimately. Niang and Zeze will always be a threat in attack; there’s too much ability there for them not to be. However, Jaro’s defence isn’t superb and they can be dominated, which is pretty much what I expect here.
Inter Turku are a top side in the Veikkausliiga but they have one fatal flaw; goalscoring. Dragtsma is arguably the best manager in the Veikkausliiga and to get this side to such a “feared” state amongst other teams without carrying a great goal threat deserves recognition. However, what I would point out is that Inter Turku don’t generally score goals but that’s not to say that they can’t. I’ve maintained for some time that they must have Timo Furuholm in attack to be good in attack and even then it only counts if he shows up. However, the talented target man has very much done so so far this season as well as miraculously staying fit so Inter Turku have looked very good as a result. They beat Honka Espoo 4-0 without playing partiicularly well due to taking their chances. They were outplayed at HJK Helsinki but name me one side that won’t be outplayed at HJK Helsinki this season in the Veikkausliiga and I’ll call you a liar! Inter were poor against MyPa but woke up next match by strolling to a 3-1 win against VPS Vaasa and they enter this game today on the back of a bizarre 3-4 win at RoPS Rovaniemi. Rovaniemi is a tough place for an away game on that fabled artificial turf and that game didn’t merit seven goals, I assure you! 0-1 or 0-2 would have been much more apt but some poor defending on Inter Turku’s part (especially clearing from corners) proved to be a big a problem although not nearly as big a problem as RoPS’ Cameroonian goalkeeper Nyom, who doesn’t seem to realise that positioning and decision-making are also staple parts of being a good goalkeeper. Nonetheless, it was Furuholm again who was causing the problems and with the maestro in-form, Inter Turku are scoring goals and beating sides so I fancy them to win here.
Importantly, Inter Turku have had a five-day rest since that game. That’s essential given the hectic fixture schedule that has been played thus far and especially so considering how long it takes to get to Rovaniemi in the far north of Finland. Inter Turku should be very well-placed to get a result off an able but somewhat stagnant Jaro side today. It’s not a banker but I think Inter Turku have a good chance of winning this game at 5/4.
Verdict: Inter Turku to win at 5/4.
Additional games
Angelholm vs Assyriska Sodertalje – home win at 7/5.
I’m not a massive advocate of Superettan outfit Angelholm as I often feel they’re overrated but I’m all over them here today. I personally rate Assyriska Sodertalje as the better side but the recent news that Assyriska boss Norling is on his way to Malmo FF will be not be taken well at all. I don’t know if Assyriska’s team knew about this beforehand but it’d explain their two catastrophic displays lately against Brage and Brommapojkarna respectively, both ending in heavy defeats for the title favourites. Angelholm are no great side; their defence needs a lot of work in particular before I take their side on a more regular basis. However, Assyriska are sitting ducks without Norling and I have to view the odds of 7/5 on Angelholm taking advantage of that today as a decent value punt.
Verdict: Angelholm to win at 7/5.
VPS Vaasa vs IFK Mariehamn – home win with draw no bet at 5/4.
You all know how much I like IFK Mariehamn this season but I have to go against them today.
VPS Vaasa are simply an average side that manage to stay in the Veikkausliiga each year because of their home form. Hardly any teams will win in Vaasa this year because of how well VPS play as a unit and how little adventure they display in their football. They’re set piece masters with Bernhardt waving his wand and magically producing a goal from time to time. They’re quite good on the counter-attack but when it comes to breaking sides down – don’t even go there. They’re a solid unit, however, and they won’t lose many at home this season – that’s just how they set themselves up in their home games, I’m afraid!
As anti-football as VPS can sometimes be, I don’t think IFK Mariehamn will be teaching them a lesson today. This is IFK’s third game in seven days and the previous two games have been exhausting for them. The first ended in a 2-0 win at home to HJK Helsinki in a hard-fought game and the second was their bizarre 0-3 humiliation against KuPS Kuopio in the Suomen Cup Semi-Final a few days ago so they’re not fresh here. Vaasa is only up the coast from IFK Mariehamn – no more than a couple of hundred miles – but it’s a long journey after a heavy defeat and especially with tired legs. The only players that had a rest against KuPS were the suspended four – Kangaskolkka, Kojola, Vartto, and Emet. The rest all played, including star-of-the-season thus far Forsell. I really rate IFK’s attacking potential this season but their defence needs work to impress me so I think they’ll struggle here.
One way or another, I expect VPS to get something from this game. They’re tenacious, determined, and even dirty sometimes but it gets the job done for VPS and keeps them in the division. I don’t see them losing today against a tired IFK Mariehamn side but I can see them getting three points in their typical efficient manner, especially given IFK’s lax approach to defending of late. The home win with draw no bet cover appeals to me at 5/4 here.
Verdict: VPS Vaasa to win with draw no bet at 5/4.
Viikingit Helsinki vs Jippo Joensuu – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Laying Viikingit Helsinki at 11/10 looks appealing at such long odds but I’m going to opt for the “safer” bet of under 2.5 goals here. Viikingit simply aren’t what they were last season – their player sales and managerial change has clearly impacted the team and not only are they rarely creating chances now but they’re rarely scoring them too. They’ve scored one goal in two home games this season and have scored three out of three in the Ykkonen, losing twice in those three games. They’re not too bad at the back but they’re so unrecognisable in attack without Metzger or Kaipio in their ranks that I just don’t fear them anymore. I mean, Jippo Joensuu are nothing special – they’re relegation candidates that will work hard as a unit and defend to the last man and nothing more than that. However, those tactics have earned Jippo four draws from four games thus far in the Ykkonen – it’s experienced tactics that have got them those points, basically. Viikingit need to adapt quickly if they’re to realise that they’re not as good as they were and that they have to create more chances and subsequently score more goals or they’re in for a nightmare campaign. I can see a low-scoring draw here or possibly even a cheeky away win so don’t enter the 1×2 market here. However, going under 2.5 goals in game between two impotent sides appeals to me at 4/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
KooTeePee Kotka vs AC Oulu – away win with draw no bet at 9/10.
KooTeePee Kotka were tipped to have a good Ykkonen campaign this time around and they may still do so yet but they’ve shown little so far. Indeed, they’ve looked exactly like they always do – rock-solid in defence, strong in possession, but hopeless in front of goal. They’re the masters of the under 2.5 goals market, KooTeePee, and until Santala and/or Ikavalko start scoring on a regular basis, they’ll remain the champions of the under 2.5 goals market for me. All four of their games thus far have had exactly one goal in because they can’t come back when they concede (due to defensive tactics and a lack of firepower) and because they sit back and defend when they score first. Unfortunately for KooTeePee Kotka, if anyone is scoring the first goal today then I don’t think it’ll be them. AC Oulu have already demonstrated on numerous occasions in the current Ykkonen campaign that they want to be back in the Veikkausliiga immediately and they have the quality to do it too, with only two regulars to have departed since their demotion. They’ve not had easy games thus far either, facing two sides that were strong in the Ykkonen last season – KPV Kokkola and PoPa Pori respectively – and also FC Lahti, who were relgated with them from the Veikkausliiga. Considering that they’ve taken seven points from nine there, I’m pretty damn impressed. Admittedly, KPV and PoPa are both playing badly this season but AC Oulu deserve respect, especially after their 2-0 win against FC Lahti in the last round of fixtures. I do wonder how they’ll replace the departed Canadian striker Jonke but with Stafsula in good form and old hand Nurmela still in midfield, there’s definitely enough quality for AC Oulu to win the Ykkonen this time around.
I just don’t see AC Oulu losing this game because if they score then I fail to see how KooTeePee will score two against them, let alone one! AC Oulu are a much better goalscoring side than their hosts and odds of 9/10 on them winning this game with draw no bet cover really appeals to me today.
Verdict: AC Oulu to win with draw no bet at 9/10.
Atletico Goianiense vs Fluminense – home win with draw no bet at evens.
For those of you who weren’t with us last time Brazil’s Serie A was being played, allow me to introduce you to my Brazilian managerial hero – Gusmao.
I’ll follow this guy and bet on his teams wherever he goes for the rest of time because he’s just one of those talented managers who gets the best out of his players at all costs. Why on earth Vasco da Gama let him go after he saved their paltry squad from relegation is utterly beyond me but I’m beyond confident that it’ll be their loss. Atletico Goianiense aren’t a particularly good side – in fact, they’re pretty damn average. However, all of Gusmao’s sides are very strong defensively, rarely concede goals, rarely score goals but also rarely lose as a result. His home record in charge of both Ceara and Vasco de Gama was immense and I expect the same from him this season. I’m actually gutted that I didn’t lay Coritiba in their opening Serie A game at 6/5 because I wanted to back Gusmao’s team, knowing his tactical approach, but I bottled it and they won 0-1 – typical!
However, I won’t miss the opportunity today. Make no mistake here, guys – if Atletico Goianiense are easy to beat at any stage this season then it’s a bad display from the team because Gusmao will have them working their backsides off 24/7 – it’s just the kind of coach he is. In some ways, Fluminense are a good opponent for Atletico Goianiense to face because they look hopeless in attack without Ramalho in charge. Additionally, Fluminense are a big team and it’s always easier to motivate your team ahead of a big opponent rather than a small opponent. Fred’s not fit yet for Fluminense so their attack is somewhat redundant with Portuguese playmaker Deco carrying them and boss Enderson Moreira effectively shrugging his shoulders in a “what can I do?” gesture as his team aren’t creating enough chances.
Although Fluminense are bigger than Atletico Goianiense and have better individuals, I’ll be amazed if they win this one. Gusmao’s teams rarely lose at home and they’ll give 100% here so I think taking the home win with draw no bet cover at evens is a good bet with a good price on it too!
Verdict: Atletico Goianiense to win with draw no bet at evens.