TFT Issue 127!
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Toulon Tournament Reviews
Regrettably, both games were at the same time so I was only able to watch one game today and have had to rely on a review from someone else for information on the other game.
Ivory Coast vs Portugal
This game went just as I thought it would, really. Ivory Coast have marginally improved as the tournament has gone on but were still largely ineffectual against Portugal. However, Portugal’s lack of incisiveness in front of goals has cost them their place in the Toulon Tournament, in my view. They yet again decided to bench their leading goalscorer Balde for no real reason and subsequently failed to take any of their chances in the first-half. Second-half – Oliveira bagged for Portugal but the Iberian side failed to score again in the game and duly paid for stupid and stubborn tactics from their manager as the qualification from this group was eventually settled by goal difference with Colombia, Italy, and Portugal all finishing on four points apiece and Portugal going out because they had a weak result against Ivory Coast. Amazing the difference one player can make, isn’t it?
Colombia vs Italy
This game went partially as I expected but the referee ensured that my tip came in with some bizarre and ridiculous decisions all over the park. It’d be at least comprehendable to claim the referee was biased but he wasn’t; he was simply very poor. I’ve found the refereeing standard in this tournament to be quite poor in general, to be honest – hopefully the French will look at that for next year. As far as the game goes – these two sides cancelled each other out fairly well. Italy rotated some players and that cost them fluency in their team, which led to mistakes. Colombia broke the deadlock before Italy levelled with a penalty in what appeared to be a bad-tempered game but it was genuinely the referee that made it look so. These two sides are hard to seperate, really. Italy have emerged the better for this game, however – they may have ended the game with ten men but they rested some of their main players here whereas Colombia couldn’t so it’ll be interesting to see who they’re drawn against in the next round.
By my calculations, France will be facing Italy and Colombia will be facing Mexico, which are two mouth-watering ties! Let’s hope it does turn out that way, eh?
Featured game
Jippo Joensuu vs PoPa Pori – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Ykkonen encounter between Jippo Joensuu and PoPa Pori.
Jippo Joensuu are reportedly ready to give Cameroonian striker Ngueukam his home debut today and they need him to be good because they’re just not scoring enough goals. That’s why Jippo are constantly battling relegation, unfortunately – they simply don’t score goals. Their defence and midfield is actually pretty damn solid and I won’t often go against them, especially at home. However, they’re not a goalscoring side, even with ex-HJK Helsinki frontman Keister leading the line. Koisinen and Reponen have contributed a lot from midfield this season and if Jippo are to avoid the drop to the Kakkonen this season then they’ll need those two to support the likes of Keister an awful lot. Jippo are in for a long, hard season this year, as usual. However, don’t take that as that they’ll lose every game because I seriously doubt that they will!
I can’t lie though; the focal part of this tip comes from PoPa Pori rather than Jippo Joensuu. One thing the Ykkonen table doesn’t show is that PoPa are a better attacking side than Jippo and are better overall, in my view. I daresay we’ll get a lot of people backing Jippo to win today based on PoPa’s recent form but I’m not one of them. PoPa are leaking a lot of goals right now but they’re always capable of scoring a few goals themselves. However, I am looking to exploit their recent conceding trend furthermore today. PoPa Pori have actually conceded fifteen goals in their past five games due to the majority of their defence being absent. You may even recall that I previewed their last game against HiFK Helsinki going over 2.5 goals? I mentioned that Aijala, Viljanen, and Pihlainen were all injured and as they’re three of PoPa’s back four, it explains precisely why they’re shipping so many goals. Well, PoPa haven’t fared any better since their last game and those players are still absent. However, somewhat bafflingly, their scenario has gotten worse with their fourth starting defender Vuorinen being suspended for this game. Therefore, we have a PoPa Pori side here with zero regular defenders available. The fact that a stronger defence than today’s makeshift back four shipped three goals at newly-promoted HiFK Helsinki last match speaks volumes by itself but with all of their defence absent today, who knows what awaits them?
I’d really not enter the 1×2 market here because although PoPa can quite easily concede three here, they’re still more than capable of scoring three with ex-Veikkausliiga midfielders Fofana and Dema in their ranks. Jippo are generally as “under 2.5 goals” as an Ykkonen side can be but so are HiFK Helsinki and look what they did to PoPa last match. I’m not saying this is a banker because it’s not; Jippo are very much an unders side. However, 9/10 on over 2.5 goals here with all of PoPa’s defence absent and Jippo desperate for points looks pretty generous to me.
Team news – Jippo Joensuu have doubts over Korpela PoPa Pori miss Vuorinen, Viljanen, Koivunen, Aijala, Pihlainen, and Akbar.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Toulon Tournament Today
Mexico vs China
A lot of people will go crazy with handicaps here but not me. I love Mexico’s attacking style and the ability they blatantly have in abundance but having seen how China performed against France, I can’t say I’m confident about Mexico destroying China. France did it because they took their chances very well and had variety in attack. Mexico don’t have that luxury, unfortunately. They do have some great attacking players but only of a certain kind. China worked hard and played very defensively against France and perhaps the scoreline flattered France as they really didn’t destroy them; they were simply very efficient and hats off to them for that. I don’t think Mexico have the same range of ability that France do and subsequently, I think they’ll struggle more than France did. I think Mexico can beat the -1.5 handicap in due course. It may be worth a cheeky punt on HT/FT Draw/Mexico win or under 2.5 goals at 11/8, in fact. I’m happy with the -1.5 handicap if you can get it longer than 4/5 but I’d leave it if it’s shorter than that.
France vs Hungary
People have already commented how France don’t need to win this game as they’re already through and that they’ll field a “weakened” side here, which is both possible and probable. However, what they’re overlooking is that Hungary’s defence can be breached – as Mexico proved time and time again – and that France’s squad as a whole have looked very good so far in this tournament. France have demonstrated an innate ability in this tournamen to break down sides that defend against them and to break down sides that attack them. Hungary would prefer to sit back and counter-attack but unfortunately for the Magyars, it’s win or go home today as everyone knows Mexico will beat China. Therefore, Hungary are not in an ideal position, having to attack their superior hosts in this game. I fully expect France to take advantage of that and possibly even beat the handicap. The -1.5 handicap interests me at evens or longer but not shorter than that. Definitely one to in-play as it depends when Hungary commit men forward against France as to when the floodgates open. Hungary could score here but France should score at least twice so I’m happy with them winning this game and they should clear the -1.5 handicap, in my view.