TFT Issue 128!
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Toulon Tournament Reviews
The final group stage games were played yesterday and although the scorelines weren’t exactly what I expected, the sides that progressed were and subsequently, we have two very entertaining games in prospect for the semi-finals!
So – France vs Hungary. I regrettably wasn’t able to watch this one due to watching the other game that kicked off at the same time but a reliable match report suggests that France dominated proceedings for the most part but failed to take their chances due to squad rotation, which is fairly probable. I still have a lot of faith in France; they could and probably should win the tournament, based on what we’ve seen from them so far.
The second game was China vs Mexico. I wanted to assess how Mexico fared against sides that will just defend against them, which is why I chose to watch this game over the other – I didn’t think I could learn anything I didn’t already know from the other game and so it proved to be.
China took the lead early in the game following a bullet free-kick into the top corner of the goal from the exact edge of the eighteen yard box. It was a fantastic strike but it did represent one of only a few ways that China can score goals. They did have other good chances to score in the game but squandered them yet again due to poor finishing and poor decision-making. China actually impressed me quite a lot in this game; they’ve learnt fast in this tournament and almost “bullied” Mexico at times in the first-half, which is worrying for the Central Americans. Mexico did very little to China in the first-half in terms of threatening the Chinese goal and actually becamse very frustrated. However, they were handed a lifeline at the end of the first-half when China’s goalkeeper – a notable weakness of the side throughout the whole tournament – came rushing out of goal unnecessarily and felled one of the Mexican attackers in the box and gave away a penalty, which Mexico scored and that gave them a way back into the game. Mexico took command in the second-half but were reduced to ten men early on. I can’t really comment on the red card as the stream I was watching didn’t show a replay but it looked like a deserved second yellow card. Ironically, that red card galvanised the Mexico team and they really started to dominate the game, creating some really good chances but not taking them. Eventually they got the breakthrough they needed when the Chinese goalkeeper dropped yet another clanger as he fumbled a corner and dropped at the feet of one of the Mexican strikers, who duly scored. Mexico had further chances to extend the lead, even with ten men, as China wilted with tiredness, but Mexico failed to take those chances. Mexico should have beaten the handicap here but credit to China; they were good in the first-half and with a better goalkeeper and better strikers, they’d have done better in this tournament. Incidentally – by my count, the Chinese goalkeeper has been at fault for at least four of the goals that China have conceded in this tournament.
Featured game
San Marino vs Hungary – under 3.5 goals at 9/10.
San Marino are still a little behind Andorra and thus are the weakest international side in Europe by my reckoning. However, they’re advancing themselves and are starting to keep sides out better; well, at least they’re doing that at home. They still pose little attacking threat themselves but it’s hard to batter them in San Marino nowadays as Finland discovered by winning just 0-1 here a few days ago.
I think it’s reasonable to expect Hungary to struggle here too, with that in mind. Well, not just that, of course – that’d be stupid! What I mean is that Hungary’s squad has no Rudolf, Priskin, or Szalai. That leaves a gaping hole where a good striker should be as they only have Szabics – who is average – and Nemeth – who isn’t ready yet. Therefore, there’s even more reliance on their midfield than normal but with no Toszer, Toth, or Buzsaky in their ranks, they’re going to struggle there too. I’d be lying if I said anything but that Gera and Dzsudzsak run the midfield and they’re both in the squad but they’re missing a hell of a lot of players here, Hungary. It showed during their 0-1 win at Luxembourg a few days ago too, needing a late goal to secure the win. Koman and Elek have promise in midfield but this Hungary side is not in a good position to batter San Marino, in my view.
I think 0-1 or 0-2 is a realistic scoreline here. With the above in mind, taking under 3.5 goals at 9/10 really appeals to me here.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at 9/10.
Additional games
Venezuela vs Spain – over 2.5 goals at 7/10.
Ok, so put your hands up if you think Spain will walk this game today? I don’t think so but I guess we’ll see.
Spain were dominant against USA and they do have the best squad in the world; I can’t argue with that. However, they always, always, always play badly against fellow hispanic sides. I can only attribute it to playing against sides that aren’t afraid to attack them and knock the ball around them as that’s the South American way but Spain hate it. They laboured past Colombia, Paraguay, and Chile in the past year or so, needing late goals to beat each of them and even suffering a 4-1 defeat in Argentina along the way. Spain simply don’t have the same level of control over this type of opponent as they would against a European side, in my view.
Spain could and should win this but will they? I’m not touching it at 1/3 or 1/4, whatever it’s at whilst you read this. I don’t back Argentina or Brazil away from home in South America at those odds so why would I do the same with Spain?
The venue is in Venezuela but not at altitude so there’s no real advantage for
Venezuela there. However, Venezuela do have an advantage here that they’ve not had for some time now – good strikers. Rondon in particular has been excellent in the Primera Liga this season and he knows this Spain squad well. Maldonado has even more experience in Spain than Rondon and is a good target man. Playmaker Arango plyed his trade in Mallorca before moving to Germany so he knows this squad well. They have talented and skilful players in Seijas, Gonzalez, and Rincon too so don’t underestimate the Venezuelan attack here. Even without Arismendi and Guerra, they’ve still got one of their best attacks for some years now. Their problem tonight is that their defence is very inexperienced and will concede at least once here. However, I think there’s a chance – a slim one at that – of them surprising Spain here, just as their fellow South American nations did with their displays.
I’d totally avoid the 1×2 market, if I’m honest with you. I don’t think Spain will find this easy although you won’t hear me complaining if they beat the over 2.5 goals mark by themselves tonight! I genuinely think that Venezuela will score at least once tonight against Spain because there’s no Puyol to hold the defence together and the remainder of the defenders in this squad either haven’t convinced me this season or just attack a lot. However, Llorente, Torres, Villa, Xabi Alonso, and David Silva are more than good enough to score Spain goals and therefore I find much more value in over 2.5 goals at 7/10 than the Spain win at 1/3 or 1/4.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 7/10.
Belarus vs Luxembourg – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Belarus welcome back Kornilenko from suspension and Stange will be over the moon to see him because Belarus still miss Aliaksandar Hleb, Sergey Krivets, and Vitali Kutuzov, not to mention Mikhail Sivakov and Vitali Rodionov. Hleb is the main source of creativity with Krievts just behind him and Sivakov/Kislyak just behind them, of which only the latter is available and he’s not match fit. Rodionov is the best striker in this Belarus team and he’s out through injury. Kutuzov is their most experienced striker and he’s out too. It’s basically just pacey but unfit Kornilenko on his own here as Vyacheslav Hleb isn’t in impressive form right now and Belarus don’t really have many other attacking options. They’ve got the set pieces of Kalachev and the pace and skill of Putsila in midfield but it’s not enough to warrant 1/2 to win this game, in my view. I think Belarus will really struggle to score goals here, as much as I rate them.
Visitors Luxembourg curiously won their last trip to Belarus 0-1 back in 2007 and drew 0-0 at home against Belarus in October last year, which is testament to how much Belarus struggle to break through sides. Belarus are a really good passing side but don’t manage to score enough goals and Luxembourg have managed to exploit that before and could again today, to be honest. They were desperately unlucky to lose 0-1 at home to Hungary a few days ago as the Magyars scored with only a few minutes remaining. Luxembourg have really advanced as a unit over the past few years and have even started scoring the odd goal, worryingly. I think they’re in a great position to really upset Belarus today because they’ll work themselves into the ground and they’re not a side that leaks goals heavily anymore.
Therefore, I’m left with no other choice but to consider under 2.5 goals here at evens to be a good value bet. Amusingly, my biggest fear here is that Luxembourg will score but either way – neither of these two sides have a good attacking threat in this game so the odds look interesting here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.