TFT Issue 133!
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UEFA European U21 Championship Reviews
Belarus vs Iceland
I’d have found the scoreline to this game a lot easier to accept had I been completely wrong about both teams but that simply wasn’t the case.
The first-half was a non-entity as Belarus sat back and weighed up their opponents whilst Iceland busied themselves trying and failing to find a way through. Belarus demonstrated their experience right from the start by landing a few crushing challenges on the Icelandic side, one of which led to Icelandic attacker Gudmundsson leaving the half-way through the first-half. Indeed, very little else happened in the first-half.
Second-half, Iceland started to turn the screw. Boss Sverrisson had had a word with them at half-time and they were a lot more composed. Intricate passing, especially from the likes of Sigurdsson, was beginning to cause Belarus a lot of problems. A few more dangerous tackles from Belarus were afoot and it’s something of a miracle that they kept eleven men on the field, really. Iceland were guilty of missing three glorious chances with Sigthorsson’s one-on-one being tipped just past the post by Gutor, Sigurdsson’s one-on-one lob attempt hitting Gutor in the face before being cleared, and Sigthorsson’s header from a corner going agonisingly close with Gutor stranded in no man’s land. Iceland really started to dominate a frankly tired Belarus side when Belarus scored from nowhere. A swift counter-attack, that trademark dubious Icelandic defending, and some skill from one of Belarus’ better midfielders Dragun all led to a penalty with Gunnarsson clipping his heels in the box. It was a fair decision but a galling one to say the least. Voronkov slotted home the penalty and then it was all uphill for Iceland. Iceland still pushed to try and get the equaliser but that led to Belarus having more opportunities too. Indeed, Belarus could have and should have scored a little while later as a counter-attack left them with a free shot from the edge of the eighteen-yard box, which was scuffed wide. However, BATE Borisov striker Skyvlash wrapped up an undeserved win for Belarus with a crafty lob following an incisive pass as Iceland had pushed on to try and score. The game ended 2-0 but from what we’ve seen over ninety minutes, I’m actually physically angry that that’s the outcome of this game as it absolutely shouldn’t have been.
Notable points about the game – Iceland’s goalkeeper Bjornsson is a loose cannon. I don’t mean that he’s samba but he spills everything and makes bad decisions – he’ll cost Iceland defensively in future games, I’m sure of it. Belarus are very fond of their physical approach – that was somewhat expected – but I never expected them to be as dirty as they were. If there is a market for cards in their future games then I’d get involved – there were plenty of meaty challenges today.
Denmark vs Switzerland
I was expecting a fairly tight game between these two but half-fancied the Swiss to edge it here without any real interest in betting on the game.
The first-half went pretty much as expected with neither side dominating but the Swiss creating the better chances with Emeghara and Shaqiri guilty of squandering a few chances. Denmark created a couple of themselves but as expected, they went through Eriksen and Bille every time and it’s just very predictable to play against. Not a lot else happened in this half.
Second-half – Denmark didn’t learn from their mistakes in the first-half when they gave the talented Shaqiri far too much space and were duly punished early in the second-half as the midfielder dribbled the ball into the box and steered his shot into the far corner of the goal to make it 0-1 to the Swiss side. Denmark’s threats continued to come only from long range and long throws, which wasn’t overly surprising. They fashioned a couple of good chances, one of which was turned away by the Swiss goalkeeper and another required some good positioning from the Swiss defence to block it, but generally speaking, Denmark failed to do any damage despite the vociferous support of the Danish fans. Denmark nearly scored at the end of the game but that stemmed from the Swiss defence going to sleep as they were unbelievably caught out by a long ball, requiring goalkeeper Yann Sommer to bail them out with a smart stop. Denmark actually did score right at the death with Bille smashing home past Sommer only to see it ruled out for a dubious offside call but all in all, Denmark didn’t do enough to get something from the game overall so I guess it’s really a case of “swings and roundabouts”.
Notable points about the game – Switzerland goalkeeper Sommer was in immense form, looking calm and assured throughout. Shaqiri is playing at a level that he’s too good to be playing at – he dominated the Danish midfield whenever he saw fit. Emeghara’s pace is a real problems for opposing sides as he’s skilful too. Denmark’s long throw is a threat that I hadn’t anticipated and we’ll need to be aware of it for future games involving the Danes.
Featured game
TPS Turku vs Haka Valkeakoski – home win with -1.5 handicap at 6/4.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter in Turku between TPS Turku and Haka Valkeakoski. The hosts enter this game on the back of a 1-1 draw at RoPS Rovaniemi whereas the visitors enter the game on the back of a 6-1 drubbing at TPS’ bitter rivals Inter Turku.
I like TPS Turku but I still didn’t fancy their chances at RoPS Rovaniemi last match because it’s a tough place to play football. RoPS are very combative and well-organised at the back, not to mention physical. Allen’s players work very hard at all times and I figured that would make life impossible for TPS Turku, who aren’t yet fully galvanised as a unit – or so I thought. However, the only word that comes to mind regarding TPS Turku’s draw was “unlucky”. TPS Turku totally outplayed RoPS Rovaniemi from start to finish (no pun intended!) and I cannot fathom how they didn’t win the game in the end. They squandered three glorious chances before Pennanen’s deflected shot found a way into the RoPS goal to give TPS a deserved lead. RoPS did absolutely nothing in the first-half other than work hard. RoPS tried even harder in the second-half and it was that never-say-die attitude that earned them a way back into the game as one of their frontmen was awarded a penalty for a supposed foul in the box. Replays show there was no foul whatsoever with the frontman and the defender both grappling with each other before Nyberg went to ground, winning the ball cleanly and the frontman went down with him after the ball had gone and the referee inexplicably gave a penalty for it and sent Nyberg off. Despite having lesser men, TPS continued to have the better of the game and could have won it later on had they angled a shot better but it’s fair to say that the scoreline of 1-1 really didn’t reflect the game.
Kuqi and Aaritalo were immense last match and I expect them to be immense again today, such is the growing cohesion between the two of them. Tarvajarvi isn’t exactly feeling left out either – all three are good strikers. Kolehmainen is starting to pull the strings from the middle of the park and TPS are beginning to look a very composed, assured, and dominant force again. Don’t get me wrong – they’re not HJK Helsinki and they’re not Inter Turku but they’re certainly a top five side if they continue to play this way. I think we can consider the “adaptation” period well and truly over with!
Visitors Haka Valkeakoski were annihlated 6-1 just down the road in their last match by Inter Turku and they deserved it, too. I don’t know what’s worse for Haka at the moment – their lack of quality, their demoralised players, or the lack of determination that they have. Hell, maybe it’s even that their strongest area is defence and yet they’ve shipped thirteen goals in their last three Veikkausliiga away games. Haka already average conceding well over two goals per game despite having only played eight games and that really doesn’t bode well for them. Inter Turku may be in-form but the 6-1 defeat came because Haka were stupid, lazy, and uninterested. They had the audacity to score the first goal – well, to be honest, they got nowhere near the Inter Turku goal for the whole game so to say they “scored” it would be a lie; a low and fairly slow-paced cross was somehow pushed into his own net by goalkeeper Bahne. After that, it was all Inter Turku with Haka’s high defensive line being continually exploited time and time again. Their defence were outmuscled, out-thought, outfought, and didn’t even bother marking half of the time. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Haka play so badly and if the alarm bells aren’t ringing for them now then I don’t know when they will be because this side has problems with a capital “P”!
Ultimately, I have to expect Haka to be a Ykkonen side next season. They’ve no money, few talented players, no depth whatsoever, and concede way too many goals. TPS Turku are easing into their stride and it’s only a matter of time before it starts to show more consistently. They’ve got some very good strikers, TPS Turku, and they’ll punish Haka if they defend as badly here as they have for their previous three away games. For me, with the above in mind, the home win with a -1.5 handicap is very generously priced at 6/4.
Verdict: TPS Turku to beat the -1.5 handicap at 6/4.
Additional games
Dinamo Minsk vs FC Minsk – lay Dinamo Minsk at 5/6.
I can’t tell you how close I was to making this my featured game today!
You see, what bookies have seemingly overlooked is that the Belarusian Vysshaya Liga is still in operation during the UEFA European U21 Championships whereas no other country’s domestic league is in operation whilst their national U21 team plays. Subsequently, a lot of the Belarusian big guns are missing big players and that’s certainly the case here.
I think it’s fair to say that Dinamo Minsk have been as poor in front of goal this season as I mentioned they would be pre-season. Kovel is quick but not lethal. Hleb has some skill but he’s no striker. They both miss and need a target man – badly. However, their problems have drastically increased for the derby today as there’s no Dragun, Perepechko, Politevich, or Veretilo. Since the mass exodus of Dinamo’s midfield – Kislyak, Putsila, Rekish, Strakhonovich, Shkbara – they’ve been forced to sign a few players and hope the players that they still have can bail them out. They signed Bychenok, Kibuk, Mbanangoye, Perepechko, Yasinski, and Afanasiev in response and although some of those players are good, it’s fair to observe the transitional period that Dinamo would inevitably experience due to their massive changes.
Now, the only midfielder to remain with Dinamo pre-season was talented Dragun, who is a good dribbler and is very useful in attack. However, he’s away with the Belarus U21 side, as is new signing Perepechko. Therefore, Dinamo’s midfield is now almost completely alien and has nobody in it who was their last season. Indeed, neither of their “strikers” were here last season either, despite Kovel coming through the Dinamo ranks as a youngster. Therefore, we have an attack based on players that barely know each other! To make matters worse for Dinamo, they miss their two most consistent defenders this season – new signing Politevich and defensive lynchpin Veretilo, both of which are away with the Belarus U21 side. Therefore, I think it’s more than fair to observe that this Dinamo Minsk team today is not really a case of “who’s who” anymore but more a case of “who’s left”!
FC Minsk have had their problems this season and they aren’t to be trusted to win games yet. They inexpicably concede copious amounts of goals and sometimes abandon their strongest area – goalscoring. However, this is a derby and they’ll be highly-motivated for it, especially with a number of ex-Dinamo Minsk players in their ranks, namely Les’ko, Razin, Pavlyuchek, Gigevich etc. FC Minsk have a strong and creative midfield with Sashcheko, Razin, Khachaturyan etc. being a constant threat. Vasilyuk was an inspired signing in attack; he’s no David Villa but he’s a big and experienced target man and that helps FC Minsk with a “Plan B” if it’s required. Sheryakov needs to start scoring and FC Minsk need to tighten their defence but don’t doubt their ability; there’s some very good players in this side.
Despite FC Minsk not consistently producing the goods this season, I have to trust them enough to not lose this game at a Dinamo Minsk bunch of out-of-position and unfamiliar players. This derby means much more to FC Minsk than Dinamo and especially so for their players. For me, there’s a lot of value in laying Dinamo at 5/6.
Verdict: Lay Dinamo Minsk at 5/6.
Naftan Novopolotsk vs BATE Borisov – lay BATE Borisov at evens.
This tip follows a similar route to that of the one above; absentees.
Loyal TFT followers will know how much I rate Naftan Novopolotsk at the Atlant because of the car park-esque turf and the physical nature of the hosts. That has persuaded me to back Naftan not to lose against BATE in the past although the bet failed on those occasions because BATE are simply the best side in Belarus, to be blunt.
However, I’m going against them again today with considerably more confidence. Much like bitter rivals Dinamo Minsk, BATE Borisov miss a whole host of important players with number one goalkeeper Gutor, essential defender Filipenko, arising midfielder Baga, integral wniger Nekhajchik, and back-up duo Gordeychuk and Skavysh all absent today as they’re away in Denmark with Belarus U21.
Atypically, I’d not read too much into those absences; after all, BATE have the best bench in Belarus so they’re generally capable of coping. However, they’ve looked a bit lightweight this season with only Renan consistently doing damage in attack and that’s because Rodionov has been ruled out for some time with an injury. Their star striker is badly missed and BATE don’t score many goals without him, as you may or may not have noticed. Well, Rodionov is still absent today and so is his understudy Skavysh so…what are they going to do? Stick pacey Kontsevoy on his own up front? I like his pace and ability to beat men but his finishing leaves a lot to be desired nowadays. What next – Rudik lining up against his old club? That won’t help – Naftan know him inside out. Even the mighty BATE should be badly hit by their absentees here because their midfield looks average (barring Renan), their attack is almost non-existant, and their defence is vulnerable without Filipenko and Gutor in goal.
Naftan need to be in the mood to trouble BATE so don’t wade blindly into this one. However, they’re usually very highly charged for their home games and that should be the case here too. They only miss Bulatikin on international duty so they’re largely at full strength here. Naftan are massively in-form at the moment so they’ll be confident here too. They’ve lost just once in their last nine games and they’ve won their last four in a row, winning three away games during the process. Naftan are a very feisty side and are impressing me more and more this season as I really expected them to struggle in the Vysshaya Liga following their pre-season departures but I underestimated their unity and tenacity.
These two sides met at BATE at the start of the season and it took a late piece of magic from Renan to win the game 1-0 for the hosts. Since then, BATE have performed about the same, edging results here and there, whereas Naftan have really strived to improve and have largely succeeded. They’ve only lost once at home this season and with Gavruyshko, Khlebosolov, and Yatskevich all linking up well in attack, I really fancy Naftan to trouble BATE here, especially with ex-Dinamo Minsk holding midfielder Shkbara really bossing the Naftan midfield since his arrival. For me, laying BATE at evens represents some value today.
Verdict: Lay BATE Borisov at evens.
UEFA European U21 Championship Today
Czech Republic vs Ukraine – Czech Republic to win at 6/5.
We should hopefully see a good game here as I think that Ukraine can dominate this game down the flanks but the Czechs are a better overall team. The question for me is whether Ukraine will manage to find a way past Mazuch at the back or not. If they do then they can cause problems here but I just don’t rate their strikers highly enough to imagine that they’ll do it. Czech Republic have brought a lot of varied and talented strikers to this tournament. In fact, I’d argue that they’ve brought the strongest group of strikers in the whole tournament with Pekhart having shone particularly brightly in the qualifiers. The mood around the Czech camp is very confident indeed, especially from Pekhart himself, and it’s easy to see why. I fancy the Czechs to go through the middle, struggle for a while against Ukraine’s 4-5-1, but inevitably break through at somepoint and take their chances, ultimately leading them to win the game. For me, the Czechs are priced quite generously here.
Spain vs England – England to win with draw no bet at 8/5.
I was tempted to take the overs route here but I can’t rule out Spain not scoring in this game due to their absence of good, solid strikers. Spain struggled against Belarus in their last game, drawing 1-1 at home in a friendly. Spain didn’t even win their qualification group due to not scoring enough goals and I see nothing that has changed that. Terrific midfield – absolutely, best in the competition. Best team? Not for me. Their defence can be vulnerable and their strikers are average. England have a much better chance here than the odds suggest, in my view. I’ve highlighted the problems England have in the full-back area following the withdrawal of both Richards and Gibbs and I feel both Muniain and Capel can do a lot of damage in that area as a result. However, England have better strikers than Spain and have some bloody good midfielders themselves. England’s defence is vulnerable from time to time, especially if useless Hamburger SV defender Mancienne is fielded, but they have a greater level of potency than Spain do, in my view. I’ve seen the odds of laying Spain at nearly 4/5 in some bookies, which is laughable, in my view. Find some clips of Spain in the last U21 Championship – they had the same lack of ability to put the ball in the net as they did in the qualifiers for this tournament and they crashed out of the group stages as a result. I can see England winning this one 0-1 or 1-2 but either way, backing England win with draw no bet cover looks incredibly generously priced here.