TFT Issue 134!
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UEFA European U21 Championship Review
Czech Republic vs Ukraine
Both sides were very impressive in the first-half as the game developed into a much more open encounter than I expected. I expected Ukraine to be more cagey than they were but there was complete pressure from both sides from the start and it became quite physical at times, although the first-half was frequently interrupted due to Ukrainian players diving. Ukraine didn’t really do anything in the final third, however, which was what I expected. The Czechs didn’t do too much in the final third either – in the first-half – but they at least threatened to do so thanks to some excellent moves stemming from central midfield.
The second-half was much more open than the first-half as the Czechs moved up a gear whereas Ukraine were stuck in the same gear as they were in the first-half. Czech Republic played some beautiful football for the vast majority of this half and duly took the lead through a scintillating strike from Dockal from a tricky angle. Ukraine responded by bizarrely substituting captain Stepanenko and subsequently conceded again shortly afterward with Dockal again there to finish off another smart Czech move. The Czechs were really starting to dominate at this point and could have increased their lead further as Ukraine looked to have no way out. However, they randomly turned it on the final five minutes of the game and pulled a goal back through a powerful finish from substitute Bilyy. Indeed, Ukraine could have even claimed a deserved equaliser as they rallied late on in the game and Czech Republic’s defence seemed hell-bent on conceding but the scoreline remained 2-1.
What have we learned today? Not much that we didn’t know already, really. Czech Republic were superb in central midfield and will most likely give Spain and England a damn good game. Ukraine pressurise very well – England and Spain will find it hard to break through them without going through the middle of the park – but they lack incision in the final third. Ukraine couldn’t have complained at losing this game 3-0 or 4-0 and considering that the scoreline was pretty accurately 0-0 at half-time, that’s a hell of a leap for them. Other sides have another gear to go to; Ukraine don’t. They work very hard, they have some quick players, and they even play some smooth football themselves. I wouldn’t underestimate them overall but their goalscoring ability is pretty non-existant, in my view.
Spain vs England
Spain started the brighter of these two sides and took the lead early in the game thanks to England deciding not to defend from a set piece, which ultimately left Ander Herrera with a tap-in from a couple of yards out – or so it looked. However, upon closer inspection, the cheating bastard actually pushed the ball in with his hand, not his head! England took some time to work their way into the game from Spain’s hypnotising midfield passing but they did and I’d argue that they were the better side by some distance toward the end of the first-half. Indeed, had it not been for a stupendous save from David de Gea, it’d be 1-1. England looked good at beating men and creatiing fluid passing moves toward the end of the second-half. I don’t think either side did enough to earn a lead at half-time but that’s what can happen if you don’t defend properly, which was what ultimately led to the handball goal.
Second-half – England started with purpose and gave Spain a few problems to think about for the first fifteen/twenty minutes until they started giving themselves problems ala Rose, who was promptly substituted. Spain started to dominate, having seen England get a bit tired and they played some mesmerising passing triangles for a lengthy period of time – it was amazing to watch, really – it just confirmed how strong their midfield is. However, Spain were impaled on their own sword as per usual because they don’t score enough goals. They sat on that one-goal lead, quite content, until Kyle Walker, who was magnificent at getting forward from right-back, surged down the right and attempted a cross. It was cut out but the ball was put back into the middle where there were three offside English players, one of which was Welbeck. The linesman didn’t see anything wrong with this blatantly offside positioning and the Manchester United striker turned and coolly slotted it into the far corner of the goal.
All in all, there were two goals that should never have been in a game that probably deserved a draw. England looked far more dangerous than Spain in the final third with Spain actually creating no more than two or three chances in the whole game, which is actually really poor if you consider how much of the ball they had. It’s the exact problem I’ve mentioned time and time again with this Spanish team – they don’t score enough goals. England were a threat in front of goal and on another night, they could have won this by being the better side in front of goal. Spain need to develop a new tactical approach quickly or they’re going nowhere, in my view.
Featured game
Inter Turku vs IFK Mariehamn – over 2.5 goals at 7/10.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter between high-flying Inter Turku and battlers IFK Mariehamn.
A lot of people will have this game down as a “banker” on their coupon (for the home win, of course) but I don’t really agree there.
Inter Turku are playing really, really well, and they’re scoring a lot of goals because of it – fair enough. They’re in terrific form and shouldn’t be underestimated. Hell, they may well win this game! However, I see no reason whatsoever to take them at such ridiculously short odds against a good IFK Mariehamn side – it makes no sense. Inter may have bagged sixteen goals in four Veikkausliiga games but let’s bear in mind that three of those sides are going to be in the bottom four at the end of the season and that Jaro Pietarsaari didn’t show up on the day. Inter Turku are still a very good side, don’t get me wrong – all I’m saying is that they’re definitely not worthy of such short odds here. With Furuholm and Ojala looking immense as each game goes by, I can understand the desire to back them to win games like this but I’m going to avoid the home win here as they’re due a slip-up and IFK Mariehamn are the kind of side that can cause it.
IFK aren’t the best travellers, admittedly – that will go against them here. However, they were good at home to Jaro Pietarsaari lately and their battling style is making them hard to play against – again. Defensively, they can be vulnerable – that’s never been in question, really. However, with Kangaskolkka really beginning to ease into the striking role at IFK and Forsell pulling the strings, IFK Mariehamn are a side not to be underestimated. Wherever they play, the visitors tend to create a lot of chances, which is precisely why three out of their last five games in all competitions have gone over 2.5 goals. This IFK Mariehamn is really starting to take shape following their pre-season acquisitions and I certainly won’t make the mistake of writing them off in what should be a more difficult game than the bookies appear to have priced it as being.
As I said above – Inter Turku could and arguably should win this game but I wouldn’t touch them at less than 4/5 here because IFK are a good team. I’m not a massive advocate of waxing lyrical about head-to-head records but I do find it useful to take note of them from time to time and it’s worth noting that IFK have only lost twice at Inter Turku in their last five visits in all competitions. What I would also point out is that both sides have scored in four out of the last five meetings between these two sides in Turku and I expect that to be the case today so perhaps backing both sides to score would appeal to you more. However, given the form of both sides and the attacking ability that each time has, I think over 2.5 goals is a good call at 7/10 as that looks a little long to me and it looks considerably “safer” than the “banker” home win. Therefore, my call is over 2.5 goals here – good luck if you take on the 1×2 market here!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 7/10.