TFT Issue 136!
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UEFA European U21 Championship Review
Unfortunately, I didn’t get chance to watch either game – my apologies for that. Time is not something I am familiar with nowadays so it was inevitable I’d miss a couple at somepoint.
However, I’ve been reliably informed that Switzerland wholly deserved their win against Iceland, so it sounds like Iceland defended like normal but attacked poorly. The Swiss are looking very efficient currently – they’re well worth keeping an eye on. For the other game, I’m told that there were two goals that shouldn’t really have been due to the randomness of one and a tame penalty for the Danes. Unsurprisingly, Denmark were applying the pressure and not getting anywhere – that’s pretty much what I expected. Unfortunately, they had an ace up their sleeve with Jorgensen’s long range effort and I took a risk with the bet I recommended on the basis that I didn’t think they had the personnel to do that. Fair play to the Danes for the win, although I still won’t be taking them seriously. They work hard but they’re so ineffectual in the final third.
Featured game
Haka Valkeakoski vs KuPS Kuopio – away win at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga clash between likely-Ykkonen-bound Haka Valkeakoski and talented KuPS Kuopio.
I’d like to put this down to something more than “Haka are shit; KuPS are better” but my foundation for this bet really is that elementary. Haka have no depth, no firepower, and even their strongest area – defence – is getting brutally ripped apart in each game. They’ve shipped nineteen goals in seven games now, which largely speaks for itself.
I suppose you could argue that they’ve only lost once at home this season, which would be accurate. However, what I’d do in this instance is examine the games a lot more closely. They drew 0-0 with VPS Vaasa, who are always poor away from home. They lost 0-2 against a superior IFK Mariehamn side. They drew 2-2 against FC Honka Espoo because FC Honka Espoo cannot defend from set pieces and to give you an idea how badly FC Honka Espoo had to play for that result to be accurate, bear in mind that Haka Valkeakoski ended the game with ten men and no goalkeeper. Haka beat RoPS 2-0 in their last home game thanks to two own goals – Haka barely produced anything aside from that in a game that had x2 all over it. With that in mind, I really wouldn’t read much into Haka’s form – they really are a very poor side with very weak offensive power. Only Robinson tends to make an impact in attack anymore!
Visitors KuPS were a bit poor up at Rovaniemi in their last game and it’s that tempremental nature that has seen them move up and down the Veikkausliiga table randomly. What cannot be denied is that they’re a top four club right now and that they’ve got the firepower to beat the vast majority of this division. The problem they’re having at the moment is that Ilo isn’t having a great season so it’s basically Venelainen and Nwakaeme carrying KuPS in attack. I like KuPS a lot; they play good attacking football. However, they need to be more varied in their attack ala bitter rivals JJK Jyvaskyla or they’re in for a disappointing campaign, especially with UEFA Europa League committments looming large.
Nonetheless, credit must be given where it’s due for KuPS. They’ve not won as many as they should have done this season but the only sides to beat them are HJK Helsinki, Inter Turku, FC Honka Espoo (the only three sides better than they are) and rivals JJK Jyvaskyla in a derby which happened far too close to their Suomen Cup Semi-Final with IFK Mariehamn, hence the squad rotation. Subsequently, KuPS are proving their superiority in the division by being able to stop sides beating them with relative ease. However, they need to score more goals and to ultimately win more games for the Veikkausliiga table to portray them with the respect that they deserve.
For me, there’s plenty of value on KuPS today. It’s not a banker but they should never be as long as 6/5 here, not with their quality attack. Haka are a very poor side that love to impale themselves upon their own sword defensively and I can’t help but feel we’ll see that today. For me, the away win is very appealing here.
Verdict: KuPS Kuopio to win at 6/5.
UEFA European U21 Championship today
Czech Republic vs Spain – Czech Republic to win with draw no bet at 11/4.
Long odds, sure, but Spain are way, way too short here for a side that really can match them. Are the bookies pricing this game based on the performances of their senior team? I just can’t see how Spain would be so short based on how they’ve played for the last couple of years.
I’ve not seen as good a Czech U21 side as this for some time now. They’ve got options all over the team and they’re very comfortable on the ball in the middle of the park, just like Spain. The Czechs don’t have as much power on the flanks but what they lack out wide they make up for in attack by having some of the best strikers in the tournament. Based on what we saw from each side’s first game in the tournament, I think there’s a perfectly good chance of the Czechs upsetting the odds here. Spain are magnificent at passing the ball around the middle of the park; there’s not a better U21 side in the world than them when it comes to that. However, they don’t do anything with the ball so I really can’t understand why people rave about them. They created no more than two good chances against England and they only way they scored was via a handball! This Spanish team does not have good strikers – just a superb midfield. Their defence was vulnerable against England and had it not been for De Gea then Spain could have lost that game. The Czechs impressed me against Ukraine because they not only mixed it up by battling the combative style of Ukraine but they also added a fluency through the middle that I’ve not seen in a Czech team for a long time. They look really comfortable and very dangerous in attack. Despite the reliable centre-back pairing of Suchy and Mazuch, the Czechs can make mistakes at the back, just like the Spanish. However, I’d be lying if I said that I thought the Spanish would outscore them because I just don’t envision it happening. You can try laying Spain here if you want but I just think there’s a lot of value in backing the Czechs with draw no bet at 11/4, risky though it obviously is – the Czechs simply look far, far better in front of goal than their Iberian opponents do.
Verdict: Czech Republic to win with draw no bet at 11/4.
Ukraine vs England – England to win at 9/10.
I get the impression that a lot of people think England will walk this game but I don’t agree. Ukraine impressed me a lot against the Czechs; not because they played particularly well but because they worked tremendously hard and it was very effective. To be fair to Ukraine, they did play some good football in midfield sometimes, especially in the first-half. The problems that they have are that they have nothing in the final third and that they don’t have another gear to go to whereas the Czechs did in the last game, hence the win. Ukraine will really make England work here, I’m quite sure, and I think we’ll see a tighter game than is anticipated. However, England are much better in front of goal than Ukraine and that should really count here. England played better against Spain than people give them credit for, in my opinion. They defended well for the majority – not entirety – of the game and counter-attacked very well. I thought the movement of the two frontmen was good and England deserved more as a result. With the above in mind, I have to treat England winning this game as good value at 9/10 – I think they’ve got too much for Ukraine’s lightweight attack to counter so 0-1 or 1-2 in England’s favour looks realistic enough here.
Verdict: England to win at 9/10.