TFT Issue 138!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
AC Oulu vs Viikingit Helsinki – home win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Ykkonen encounter in northern Finland between AC Oulu and Viikingit Helsinki. A few seasons ago, these two would be well-matched rivals but I have my doubts over that being the case today.
As I’ve mentioned time and time again, AC Oulu are here purely as the victims of financial issues, which were admittedly their fault. However, quality-wise, they’re still a Veikkausliiga side as they only lost Hurme, Pyryynen, and the recently-departed Jonke. That quality has generally shown during AC Oulu’s Ykkonen games so far this season and I expect it to show again today because they’re basically the best side in the division – well, until FC Lahti get Rafael back to full fitness and then it becomes rather even. With influential set piece specialist Nurmela in midfield, red-hot Stafsula up front, and the experience of Fomichev and Hietanen at the back, AC Oulu have leaders all over the park and it shows. They defend well as a unit and both create and score chances so they really are the real deal. They’ll occasionally be guilty of not taking as many of their chances as they should have done ala their 0-1 win at FC Espoo and their 1-1 draw at home to HiFK Helsinki but they’re still head-and-shoulders above most of the teams in this division and Viikingit Helsinki are no exception.
I think that Viikingit’s recent burst of form is what has made the odds so tasty here but I can see that form coming to an abrupt end today. Viikingit may well be on a four-game unbeaten run but if you look who they’ve gone unbeaten against, it really isn’t that impressive a list. The 0-0 draw with bitter rivals PK-35 Helsinki away from home last match was respectable but prior to that, Viikingit beat three poor teams in a row. I suppose to be fair to Viikingit, KPV Kokkola aren’t a poor side, per se – they’re just highly impotent in front of goal. However, Viikingit really haven’t faced a nightmare game in their last four encounters and thus haven’t been duly tested. I admire how much they’ve battled when you consider how poorly they were playing prior to this run because they were really beginning to miss their departed players and manager, or so it seemed. Indeed, Viikingit have even started scoring goals for fun, which is confusing but strangely pleasing. However, the fact remains that they’re facing a side that is considerably better than they are and Viikingit are not solid enough at the back to get a result here, in my view. They may well penetrate the solid defence of AC Oulu but I doubt they’ll be able to match their goals scored here.
Therefore, I’m left with the home win as my selection for this game. I don’t think we’ll see Viikingit’s form last many times this season unless they make some good signings in the transfer window but I do think we’ll see consistently good displays from AC Oulu. For me, the superior side winning this game is too generously priced at 9/10 so that’s my call here.
Verdict: AC Oulu to win at 9/10.
Additional games
B71 Sandur vs IF Fuglafjordur – away win at 4/5.
The Meistaradeildin table is a tad harsh on today’s hosts, who have really struggled to adapt to their temporary stadium following the renovation of their old stadium, but I’m still happy to take advantage of them. Gambling is not a world with sentiment, after all.
B71 Sandur have played six home games and they’ve lost all of them. Not only that, they’ve lost them all convincingly too, conceding an average of five goals per home game whilst scoring just once along the way. This side isn’t as bad as the table suggests but with player confidence at rock-bottom, it’s fair to say that this run should continue until they produce that inevitably inspiring result.
Iimun Eliasen and Runi Nolsoe’s first day in charge of IF Fuglafjordur having been appointed as successors to Abraham Lokin on the 1st June wasn’t as “honeymoon-esque” as they’d have liked; they drew 1-1 at home to B36 Torshavn. That said, B36 Torshavn are having a fantastic season and it’s as close to a “dream start” as they could have hoped for, realistically, especially given the demoralised team at their disposal.
Indeed, three days ago, IF Fuglafjordur lost 2-1 at 07 Vestur Sorvagur in the cup, a result which saw them progress to the final on away goals so morale should be considerably higher now than it was last month.
Therefore, I have to give IF Fuglafjordur a serious shout here. The hosts may not be as bad as the Meistaradeildin table suggests but the visitors are definitely better than the table suggests – they’re a top-six side for me every year. IF’s only problem has been scoring goals but they’ve created their fair share of chances under new management and you feel that a single goal would be enough for them to win this one today, especially given the hosts’ lack of ability in front of goal versus the solid defence of their opponents.
Therefore, I have to side with the generously-priced away win at 4/5 here. There’s a good amount of class difference between the two sides and if IF get that first goal then I have a lot of confidence in them seeing out the win, especially with new managers still to impress.
Verdict: IF Fuglafjordur to win at 4/5.
UEFA European U21 Championship today
Denmark vs Iceland
My initial thoughts here were that Denmark were way too short but given that Iceland appear to be devoid of the goalscoring prowess that saw them reach the finals in the first place, I’m going to give it a miss. Denmark do lack the ability to consistently score and create chances but they eventually found a way past Belarus last match and they may find a way past Iceland at somepoint today, especially as their defence is a bit shaky. However, I can’t overlook Iceland’s attacking power, dormant though it is, so I don’t see any bets that interest me here. All I’ll say is be very careful here – Iceland is a former colony of Denmark’s and if ever there was a stage for Iceland to get one over on their former owners then this is it.
Verdict: No bet
Switzerland vs Belarus
The handicap definitely appeals to me here. Switzerland don’t need to beat it to progress; hell, they don’t even need to win. However, I still fancy them to break it here. They’ve proven themselves to be rather adept at breaking through sides and manipulating possession. They’ve got some fantastic attacking players and will trouble Belarus here. Now, I’ve been advocate of Belarus for the tournament thus far in the sense that they’re hard to beat, which is perfectly true. However, this is their third game in what – seven days? During their previous two games, it’s been backs-to-the-wall for large periods of each game with only constant tenacity lending them any credibility whatsoever in terms of what they deserve from the game. They’ve got to be really tired by now and yet they have to attack Switzerland in this game to have a realistic chance of progression as many expect Denmark to beat Iceland in the other game. I think Belarus may approach this game cautiously at first but I think they’ll eventually open up and that’s when Switzerland should capitalise. Ultimately, counter-attacks and attacking talent should enable the Swiss to make somewhat light work of what can be a very difficult opponent so the Swiss win with a -1 asian handicap at 6/5 really appeals to me here.
Verdict: Switzerland to beat the -1 asian handicap at 6/5.