TFT Issue 140!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
VPS Vaasa vs Haka Valkeakoski – home win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter between VPS Vaasa and Haka Valkeakoski.
VPS have survived in this division over the past few years by being strong at home and this year is no exception. The only sides to have conceded less goals at home than VPS this season are the top three (HJK Helsinki, Inter Turku, and JJK Jyvaskyla respectively) just to give you an idea of how strong these guys are at home. They’re very well-regimented at the back and attack well as a unit, which is useful because they’re drastically short of talent in terms of individual ability. VPS are a nightmare side to face away from home and it’s no surprise whatsoever that only one side has beaten them in the Veikkausliiga in Vaasa this season and that’s HJK Helsinki, who are responsible for 50% of the goals that VPS have conceded at home this season. VPS are set piece masters and that was what earned them a point up in Rovaniemi last match in a game that thoroughly deserved to end as a draw. To combat VPS, you must be physical, well-organised, and defend set pieces well and only one Veikkausliiga side I can name can do all of those effectively and that’s HJK Helsinki. VPS always fight much harder at home because they know how strong they are on their own turf and I expect that again today. Hell, IFK Mariehamn and TPS Turku have both lost here with FC Honka Espoo drawing here 1-1 in the other game so it’s hardly an easy list of home games for VPS. With Bernhardt in their ranks and their atypical tenacity, for me, VPS are good value to do damage here.
I especially like this tip because Haka Valkeakoski are crap, to be horribly blunt. Their 0-5 defeat at home to HJK a few days ago was well and truly deserved as Haka were outplayed from start to finish. Additionally, Haka haven’t got a point away from home since their opening Veikkausliiga away game at Jaro Pietarsaari, losing four consecutive games this season then whilst shipping fifteen goals, which is horrendous! They have little firepower and their tenacity counts for little against an experienced home team that will give more than they get. Haka can only hope that their semi-decent defence keeps them in the game here but VPS should eventually break through from a set piece, as usual. Haka have some injury problems ahead of this game too, helpfully, so I fancy them to struggle in Vaasa.
VPS are the atypical mid-table Veikkausliiga side and they subsequently make their games at home count. I expect them to do that here against an inferior and most likely Ykkonen-bound Haka Valkeakoski today and evens is a good enough price to take on board, too.
Verdict: VPS Vaasa to win at evens.
Additional games
Liepajas Metalurgs vs Skonto Riga – home win at evens.
Are Liepajas the better side here? Not for my money. There’s little in it and there’s plenty of rivalry here but I have to oppose Skonto Riga in big games currently because boss Pahars doesn’t really know what he’s doing. Skonto have terrific firepower and subsequently they tend to ease past the lesser Virsliga sides without any great ceremony. However, the bigger sides are the ones they struggle against and Liepajas are certainly in that bracket. For me, Liepajas are a good enough side to capitalise on Pahars’ tactical failings just as FK Ventspils were earlier this season. Additionally, Skonto were involved in the Baltic League Final against FK Ventspils just a few days ago in a game which went through extra-time and penalties so this Skonto side should be either tired and/or rotated. Therefore, the home win looks very appealing here.
Verdict: Liepajas Metalurgs to win at evens.
FC Lahti vs HiFK Helsinki – home win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
With these odds available, it looks like there’s been a massive overreaction to Lahti’s draw in Joensuu! I admit that the result was fairly surprising but it wasn’t impossible. The sooner that Lahti get Rafael back to full fitness, the better! However, Lahti are dominant at home and it’s shown in the Ykkonen this season with four wins from four home games. Lahti have beaten the -1.5 handicap in three of those games whilst conceding just once along the way so they’re very much a side to be feared and respected. Lahti have some very good players in their ranks and if they took their chances much better than they currently do then they’d be leading the Ykkonen table. However, as it currently stands, Lahti only take their chances at home and that’s where I’ll be backing them!
HiFK have done quite well since promotion but only as a dogged defensive unit. They may be unbeaten in five consecutive Ykkonen games but barring their freak draw at AC Oulu, they’ve played crap and/or susceptible sides. HiFK are not the kind of side to lie down and die; their fanatical supporters simply wouldn’t allow it. However, they are the kind of side that can be outclassed in this type of game and that’s precisely what I expect to occur here. The only side they’ve looked decent against on the road this season is a poor FC Espoo side and that doesn’t impress anyone! HiFK are not to be underestimated but to state that they’re anything but three times worse than Lahti would be a lie.
For me, this should be a clear home win. Taking the hosts to beat the -1.5 handicap appeals to me at evens as those odds are a little more generous than they should be, in my view. Lahti are very good at home and HiFK are very susceptible against the right opponent and thus my call is the -1.5 home win at evens.
Verdict: FC Lahti to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
UEFA European U21 Championship today:
Spain vs Belarus
Spain should win this one comfortably, really. Belarus provided stubborn resistance for the Iberian side pre-tournament in a friendly, holding them to a 1-1 draw in Spain thanks to an equaliser from Dragun, if I remember rightly. If this game was the first one of the tournament then I’d probably argue that Belarus can fight Spain and at least keep the score down, if not spring a surprise. However, this Belarus side has played three exhausting games now and it’s really showing. Belarus miss Matveychuk in this game through suspension, which further limits their options. I like Belarus’ battling spirit and they’re rarely an easy side to displace but Spain should be able to win this one easily with Belarus so tired today. However, I don’t see any value in the game whatsoever so this game is a big “avoid” for me as anything but accumulator fodder.
Switzerland vs Czech Republic
For me, this one screams “goals” and at 6/5, over 2.5 goals looks mighty tempting. Both sides play some good attacking football and both have dangerous threats in attack. The Swiss have better widemen and the Czechs have better finishers but both sides are very capable in front of goal. I find it very hard to pick a winner from these two sides and I think we may well need penalties to decide the game but I think we should see plenty of goals due to plenty of attacking talent on both sides and thus over 2.5 goals is my call here.