TFT Issue 145!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Inter Turku vs KuPS Kuopio
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter in south-west Finland between Inter Turku and KuPS Kuopio.
Hosts Inter Turku are currently second in the table, five points adrift of HJK Helsinki. If they’re honest with themselves, they’ve not a hope in hell of pipping the reigning champions to the title but they’ve still got enough scope on doing so to remain motivated. They’ve done fantastically well this season although let’s not kid ourselves here; it’s because Furuholm is fit and in-form. The target man is everything to this team and without him, they rarely score enough goals to win games. Ojala has done well this season, providing a good number of assists, but Furuholm is the top dog and boss Dragtsma knows it too, hence them building the team around him. I can’t overlook just how well Inter Turku are playing right now though, especially at home. They’re playing attractive attacking football and creating a lot of chances, hence them winning five out of six on their own turf in the Veikkausliiga this season, bagging an average of three goals per game. Their confidence is very strong as you can see from their excellent run of form but more specifically, you can see it from the result of their derby defeat. They were unlucky to lose against TPS Turku – they didn’t give in and deserved a draw due to their end-of-game display -but followed it up with a highly convincing 2-0 win against a very good JJK Jyvaskyla side, actually squandering a lot of chances whilst doing so. Barring that strange game against MyPa that ended 1-1, Inter Turku have been very strong at home this season and have beaten the -1.5 handicap in all of their home games thus far so there’s a pretty good foundation for this bet already.
KuPS Kuopio are a better side than the table indicates, first of all – don’t make a habit of underestimating them. Their problem isn’t quality; they’ve got plenty of it, to be honest. Their problem is scoring goals and although you’d be within your rights to expect that after the sale of Dudu to FC Honka Espoo pre-season, I still didn’t think it’d hurt them quite like this. The re-signing of Nwakaeme has inspired the team and he’s been a good attacking force for them. However, Ilo and Venelainen are ghosts this season and that’s really harming KuPS. Udah and Williams contribute where possible but Ilo and Venelainen must be playing well for KuPS to succeed in attack and they’re just not, unfortunately. Additionally, KuPS have really failed to impress on the road this season – not just in results but in displays – and that is a real problem for them today. Consider that they’ve only scored twice on the road this season, have failed to score in their last three Veikkausliiga away games, and have been done over by the -1.5 handicap in the two hard away games they’ve had this season – at bitter rivals JJK Jyvaskyla and reigning champions HJK Helsinki. It doesn’t bode well for them, does it?
Rather than take the obvious -1.5 handicap, I’m going to side with the -1 asian handicap here for two reasons. The first is that if Furuholm doesn’t show up or doesn’t play then Inter Turku will find it hard to score and the second is because KuPS are a lot better than the league table suggests. The asian handicap gives us more insurance here so my call is for the superior and in-form hosts to beat the -1 asian handicap at evens.
Verdict: Inter Turku to beat the -1 asian handicap at evens.
Additional game
Jaro Pietarsaari vs RoPS Rovaniemi
Unders, unders, unders! They’re the enemy of the Veikkausliiga but this game has “boredom” written all over it!
First of all, these two sides are amongst the lower goalscoring sides in the Veikkausliiga, which is unsurprising as Jaro have no creative midfielders and RoPS have only one good attacker.
Secondly, things aren’t going too well for either side right now. Eremenko is a brilliant boss but he’s working with limited resources at Jaro and they’re subsequently struggling. Zeze and Niang are strikers that deserve better service than they get as they’re both good, good strikers. However, they’re feeding off scraps and off each other right now and that’s not a good long-term plan. Unfortunately for Jaro, Zeze misses this game through suspension following a stupid reaction to the referee last match. To me, that limits their goalscoring ability to a Niang piece of magic, a penalty, a set piece, or a suicidal bit of defending from RoPS. Jaro just don’t do it for me right now; they need a lot of new players and as decent as they are at frustrating sides, I just can’t rate them as being able to win games like this at the moment.
RoPS did well at the start following their promotion from the Ykkonen but Allen’s boys are quickly learning that the Veikkausliiga is a very long campaign and it’s especially long with the new Veikkausliiga layout this season. RoPS are very short on numbers although they’re not short on money so they’ll no doubt be busy when the transfer window re-opens. Despite their contradicting record, allow me to assure you that they’re not a good goalscoring side – they generally only score from Rivera magic, set pieces, or goalmouth scrambles. I admire their tenacity and defensive togetherness but they’re not a great side at all – they’re pretty average and I expect them to come to Pietarsaari for the draw today as a result. The fly in their ointment has to be crazy goalkeeper Nyom because he’s got no sense of positioning, no command of his area, no ability in the air etc. etc. I’m basically amazed that he’s somehow become a goalkeeper. However, due to Zeze’s absence today, I’m not sure he’ll see much action.
Barring RoPS expected drubbing at HJK Helsinki, their last four games have gone under 2.5 goals as reality hits home; they’re not a good goalscoring side but they’re competent at the back, especially with German revelation Gotzl holding things together. Jaro’s home games generally go under 2.5 goals barring games against superior sides or fluke games. For example, the 1-2 loss against Haka at the start of the season came from two wonderful Haka goals – Haka aren’t capable of scoring average goals because they’re crap. They lost 1-3 against Inter Turku because Inter Turku are much better thn they are. Their 1-5 loss against MyPa last match came from having ten men from the start of the game and capitulating near the end as heads dropped. Hell, the fact that O’Neill bagged a hat-trick tells the full story – he’ll be lucky to score three goals in the remainder of the season, let alone in one game!
Jaro confidence does bother me a bit here; I even think RoPS could nick this one if they play their cards right. However, under 2.5 goals at evens looks a good bet here with the above in mind.
Team news – Jaro Pietarsaari miss Zeze.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.