TFT Issue 149!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
MyPa Anjalankoski vs JJK Jyvaskyla – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga clash between relegation-threatened MyPa Anjalankoski and potent JJK Jyvaskyla. Quality-wise, there’s worlds of difference betwene the two sides and I’m hoping that it shows today.
MyPa have gone on something of a resurgance of late, getting some vital points and getting some momentum at the same time, not to mention morale. I can’t say that they’ve deserved their wins – they’ve rode their luck in all the games they’ve taken points from lately – but that’s how it goes sometimes and credit must go to them for continuing to work hard in the face of adversity. Let’s face it – quality-wise, they’re one of the worst sides in Finland right now but it’s amazing what momentum and a bit of luck can do sometimes. However, I think they’re going to struggle an awful lot today as they’ll need more than luck to get something off JJK Jyvaskyla. MyPa actually did reasonably well at home to HJK Helsinki last match and caused a few problems although they couldn’t have complained had the game ended 0-3, such is the superiority of the Veikkausliiga leaders. However, MyPa have suffered since then and now miss midfield general Okkonen, regular striker Anttilainen, and integral defender Aho. MyPa absolutely cannot afford any absentees as their squad depth is a big, fat zero. Okkonen runs that midfield; Saxman is not old enough nor experienced enough to do it and he’s the biggest loss this squad could ever have. Anttilainen has been a regular since May and has improved their attack, albeit marginally, and he’ll be missed today. Aho holds things together at the back but he’s out today. I can only imagine the collective groan from MyPa fans when they saw those absentees because I don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel for them here. JJK’s defence is susceptible and Innanen could poach a goal from somewhere but I’ll be absolutely stunned if MyPa win this game.
To the untrained eye, JJK’s away form looks fairly average and uninteresting but I hold a different perspective; I actually think they’re pretty damn good away from home. They’ve lost twice, drawn twice, and won twice on the road this season – looks average enough on the face of it. However, the only two sides to beat them are Inter Turku and HJK Helsinki respectively, who are the only two sides in the Veikkausliiga that are definitely better than they are right now. They’ve held FC Honka Espoo to a draw, were a bit unlucky not to win at Jaro Pietarsaari in the 1-1 draw, but have won up in Rovaniemi and at TPS Turku against the odds all because they’ve got a fantastic attack. They’ve scored eight times in their last five away games and only the top two can better that record currently – well, them and rock-bottom RoPS Rovaniemi, bizarrely! JJK are a goalscoring machine, even without long-term absentee Wusu up front. Strikers Kari and Hyyrynen especially have been good this season. However, JJK’s strength is in midfield where Virtanen, Markkula, Manninen, and especially Gruborovics patrol and take turns to terrorise their opponents. Gruborovics was an inspired signing from IFK Mariehamn pre-season and his return of seven goals in ten games tells you he was well worth it. Their defence is still suspect and they will get caught out against good sides but MyPa really aren’t a good side so I’m not too concerned there.
What really interests me here is that JJK’s dominant midfield is going against a MyPa side without Okkonen to help Saxman out in the middle, which spells big, big problems for MyPa. The only ways to stop JJK are to outscore them (not possible for MyPa) or to stop their midfield (also not possible without Okkonen) so I’m heavily favouring the visitors here. JJK should have way, way too much firepower for the hosts and draw no bet on the away win being priced at 4/5 is something of a bargain today for me, especially with MyPa failing to score in five out of their seven home games this season…
Team news – MyPa Anjalankoski miss Aho, Okkonen, and Anttilainen.
Verdict: JJK Jyvaskyla to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Additional game
Chile vs Mexico – under 2.5 goals at 5/6.
I’m getting a bit bored of reading how good everyone thinks Chile are. Maybe I am alone in my opinion – and I usually am! – but they’re simply not a very good goalscoring side. You can rave about Alexis Sanchez all you want – he is a truly gifted footballer – but he’s one player. He has the right players around him at Udinese and the right platform to advocate pace and skill; slow Serie A. This is a different tournament with sides that are used to play against pace; I doubt he will have as much effect in this tournament as he does in Italy but we’ll see.
There are two big problems I have with this Chile side, however. The first is their inability to score goals. Seriously, there’s only Suazo in this team who I’d actually classify as a striker and they subsequently rarely score goals in a consistent manner. Suazo is the only good target man Chile have had since the days of Salas and Zamorano and they were proper strikers!! Did you know that Chile haven’t scored more than two in a proper game since 2009? The only four exceptions are their friendlies at home against Zambia, Estonia, Israel, and Northern Ireland respectively, most of which took second strings out to Chile to face them. Goalscoring is a real problem for this side!
My other big problem with this side is that they’re nothing without Bielsa. He was the heart and soul of the Chile side that lit up the World Cup with slick passing and even had Spain chasing shadows for periods of their game with them. However, Bielsa is no longer in charge of Chile and that means they’re not as good as a unit anymore – watch them and you’ll see what I mean.
Chile’s midfield is still excellent – Jimenez, Valdivia, Fernandez are all gifted passers of the ball. Vidal has had an outstanding season with Bayer 04 Leverkusen and is rumoured to be joining Bayern Munich as a result. Beausejour, Medel etc.- they all break up attacks from their opponents. So yeah, I really like Chile’s midfield. Their defence isn’t great but it’s experienced and their midfield is good enough at keeping the ball to generally keep sides away from their own goal, depending on who they’re facing. Goalscoring, though – it’s just not their specialised area nowadays.
Mexico have taken a young squad to this tournament, which is worth noting. There’s only Aguilar and Giovanni dos Santos of any recognition in this Mexico side, to be honest – they’re sitting ducks for any side that can score goals. Amusingly, dos Santos’ brother Jonathan is in the squad too, despite the controversy a while ago about him not being picked in the team. Most of this Mexico team hasn’t played often at all for the national team so yeah, they’re inexperienced and could be taken apart by the right opponents. However, a lot of these players are regulars in the Mexican Primera Division and they’re more than capable of knocking it around a bit themselves. They’ll work hard and I doubt they’ll commit men forward excessively but I do think there’s enough there to restrain Chile. I don’t see enough firepower in their team to trouble the Chilean defence so unless dos Santos wields some magical touches then I doubt we’ll see a goal for Mexico. I think there’s enough there to frustrate Chile, however.
So yeah – my approach is to not bother with the 1×2 market here as there may be a surprise 0-0 on the cards. Chile don’t score enough for my liking and I doubt they’ll surpass one here, let alone two, unless there’s a red card. Chile are very hot-headed too – bear that in mind as the likes of Medel love to get themselves sent off sometimes. However, for me, this game screams “under 2.5 goals” and at 5/6, I’m happy to climb aboard.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6.