TFT Issue 154!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
FC Honka Espoo vs MyPa Anjalankoski – home win with -1 AH at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga encounter in western Finland between FC Honka Espoo and relegation battlers MyPa Anjalankoski.
What I like best about this bet is that there’s only two points between Honka and MyPa in the table, which means all the statistics whores out there will be laying Honka, wondering why they’re so short. They’re short because they’re a lot better than MyPa are!
However, the reason that Honka haven’t done well so far this season has been due to a poor start, which subsequently came from an inexperienced backline and injuries. Although their defence is still vulnerable, they have got almost all their players back from injury and look better for it. They’ve played well in their last four games, although their results may not indicate it. Their sole loss in that four-game run came at home against high-flying Inter Turku because a goalkeeping howler from Maanoja let Ojala’s long-range free-kick spill into the goal, which gave Inter Turku a way back into the game against a Honka side resting a few players for their game with Nomme Kalju. Honka totally dominated Nomme Kalju in both legs of their UEFA Europa League tie and progressed as a result, winning 0-2 in Tallinn a few days ago to setup a tie with BK Hacken Goteborg of Sweden next week.
Will Honka rest players here? Possibly. I’m not too concerned, though – they may be one of the youngest squads in the division but there’s plenty of ability here, especially in ever-impressive Demba Savage up front. Honka are a side that has always relied upon their goalscoring abilty to override their defensive ineptitude and it’s in games like these where that philosophy should really pay huge dividends.
Visitors MyPa Anjalankoski scare me. They seriously do. How such an atrocious side has lost just once in their last five games truly baffles me. I can assure you, however, that the vast majority of those results really did come from fortune – nothing else! I admire their tenacity, their reasonably reliable defence, and the fact that they’ve improved lately in comparison to their atrocious displays at the start of the season. However, I cannot overlook that MyPa are easily one of the worst three sides in the Veikkausliiga right now and it’ll take more than a misleading league placing to convince me otherwise.
Happily, the lovely lady luck has lent a helping hand today with my crusade against MyPa’s undeserved run of form by crippling their best players, as well as a few others. MyPa discovered that the injuries to midfield general and leader Okkonen and attacker Anttilainen are much more serious than they thought, which means they’ll be out for longer. How MyPa beat JJK without either of them last match defied belief; if they do it again today then I really think I’ll retire because Okkonen is the driving force of this team and Anttilainen is the only one doing the business for them up front this season with Innanen struggling to find his feet. Additionally, integral defender Aho is still out so the most reliable part of their team is some distance from 100% today.
MyPa welcome back Vesala and O’Neill but it’s scant consolation given their hefty absentee list. It also doesn’t help them because they’re both shit.
So yeah, I really fancy Honka here. MyPa are not only two or three classes below their opponents but also miss three very important players and their idea of depth is to throw coins at local guys walking around Anjalankoski until they play for them. Seriously, half of this squad would struggle in the Ykkonen. Therefore, I’m going heavily in with Honka here. I’ve taken the -1 asian handicap instead of the -1.5 european handicap because I know Honka’s defence is suicidal enough to give chances to any side so it’s a bit of an insurance policy here. However, I thoroughly expect Honka to dominate and win this game comfortably.
Team news – MyPa Anjalankoski miss Okkonen, Aho, Koljonen, Kuismala, Pele, Anttilainen.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to win with a -1 asian handicap at evens.
Additional games
Fluminense vs Flamengo – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
It’s derby day in Brazil with a great deal of feisty and furious affairs being played out although I’d have to edge towards this one being the most fiery of them all.
So, yeah – these two sides really don’t like each other very much. Unfortunately, Fluminense aren’t really in a good position to battle with their more illustrious rivals with disaster after disaster having struck since Muricy’s departure for Santos pre-season. His managerial ability was the reasoning behind Fluminense’s excellent form last season and a cursive glance at the Serie A table this season will show exactly what his departure has done for the team. Look at Argentinian playmaker Conca, for example – he was one of the best players in Serie A last season and easily Fluminense’s best player. This season, he’s been a ghost without Muricy to guide him and the news of his recent departure for Guangzhou Yiyao in China for a hefty figure didn’t surprise me one bit. Irrespective of how invisible he’s been on the field for Fluminense this season, though, they’re still going to miss him – he was one of their best players. I don’t think they could miss him more than they will tonight, either, with fellow playmaker Deco injured, their only good striker Fred on international duty (and not playing well anyway!), and arguably their best defender Mariano suspended, not to mention the doubts they have over Diogo. In this Fluminense squad for tonight, I see no creativity, no goalscorer, and no leaders. In a huge derby game, I’m sure you can appreciate what a big problem this is.
I’m still not over the moon with Flamengo; I can’t help but feel they’re more of a circus that Ronaldinho is carrying along but whatever; they’ve got good momentum here and they’re far better placed than their opponents. Decent striker Deivid looks good now Ronaldinho is spoon-feeding him and Argentinian attacking midfielder Botinelli is helping out Thiago Neves in midfield to no end with both of them contributing to the Flamengo show. All of the above has steered Flamengo into second place in Serie A and although I’d be flabbergasted if they were still there at the end of the season, it still shows how strong their momentum is right now, especially on the back of three straight wins.
So yeah – don’t expect miracles from Flamengo in the near future as they’ll collapse when someone hacks down the gifted Ronaldinho. However, they’re still a long, long way ahead of bitter rivals Fluminense right now in just about every aspect, especially considering all the players that Fluminense are missing. Therefore, the Flamengo win interests me greatly here although I’ll be covering it with draw no bet as there’s still value in the bet at 4/5 and we have insurance as it’s a derby.
Team news – Fluminense miss Fred, Deco and Mariano whilst having doubts over Diogo whereas Flamengo miss Maldonado and Fierro.
Verdict: Flamengo to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Atletico Goianiense vs Corinthians – under 2.5 goals at evens.
A Gusmao side versus and overrated side? This games screams “under 2.5 goals” to me!
Gusmao’s tactics are always the same; defend first and then…defend some more. Yeah. His sides don’t concede many, although his ability is certainly being put to the test by the mediocrity of Atletico Goianiense’s players. There’s only so much you can do if there’s no nucleus of ability and Atletico are somewhat bereft of ability, to be brutally honest. You can see the work the master tactician has already done this season, though – they’ve conceded just three goals in three home games although it has to concern him that they’ve only scored in one of those games; the game against his old club Ceara, surprise, surprise! Nonetheless, they’re a resilient unit and no side has an easy ride against them, especially away from home, and I expect that to show again today.
Corinthians are the best side in Brazil right now, for my money. However, that’s largely down to their money that they are dubbed with such accolades. They’ve got a good bunch of players with talent and depth but they aren’t the most attractive of sides to watch. Indeed, I’d not really hesitate in calling them boring, to be honest. They’re a very efficient unit, which is quite unusual for a Brazilian side that isn’t managed by Gusmao, but that’s how they play and that’s how they win games; efficiently. Fat Adriano is still injured so that means old hand Liedson will lead the line with whoever Tite decides is best placed to break through this solid Atletico Goianiense side. I’m fairly confident they’ll do it too, although my advice is to almost never back the away win in Brazil – they rarely happen. However, Corinthians’ defence is water-tight and they’re efficient enough to nick the three points so I think we’ll see a low-scoring affair here.
A goal for the hosts might upset the bet but I still don’t see many in this one. I can’t see either side scoring two unless the hosts are reduced to ten men and the visitors capitalise on it so under 2.5 goals looks generously priced at evens to me.
Team news – Corinthians miss Adriano.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
VPS Vaasa vs KuPS Kuopio – both sides to score at 3/4.
As a rule of thumb for betting on Veikkausliiga football, never go against VPS Vaasa at home. They’re a nightmare to face on their own turf and the only side that will win fairly regularly here are HJK Helsinki. I’ve put on the main page that I think KuPS will edge it because of how well they’ve played lately but still – either take the tip above or leave it, in my experience.
VPS are very well-organised and very physical – that’s why sides don’t like playing in Vaasa. They’ll almost never concede many goals here although they’re somewhat handicapped in that they do score very few themselves. To be honest, from what I’ve seen from them in their last few games, that’s largely stemmed from them not taking their chances rather than not creating any. Consider MyPa Anjalankoski, for example – they struggle because they don’t create enough chances nor take them. VPS make the chances but don’t convert them often enough. However, on their own turf, they usually do score at least one goal per home game and the only side to prevent them from scoring at home this season was…yes, you guessed it – HJK Helsinki! Amusingly, VPS Vaasa have drawn four out of their last five games with all four of those games ending 1-1, which demonstrates their strength at the back but their inability to score many goals.
Bad news for VPS Vaasa, though – surgery for defensive lynchpin Tanska means he’s going to be out for some months and that’s a huge, huge blow for VPS – he’s their best defender by a mile. Midfielder Koskela also misses out today but he can be replaced, just as boss Pikkarainen said although with a tad more diplomacy than I have. Still, Kokko has proven to be a decent threat in attack this season and Bernhardt’s set pieces are always dangerous so I do think VPS will score today against KuPS’ ever-dubious defence. However, with no Tanska to hold things together at the back, I find the chances of them keeping a clean sheet here very slim indeed.
KuPS have actually been pretty damn good lately. I’m not so much surprised by that as they’re a very good side but I’m more surprised that they’ve actually put a run of two games together where they’ve actually played well. Dare I mention the dreaded “c” word creeping into their play? Yes, that’s it – consistency?! Well, we’ll soon see. Quality-wise, KuPS are top five/top six material so I’ve no doubt they’ll surge up the table at somepoint; why not now? They’ve smashed six goals past the two best sides in Finland in the last couple of weeks so I think they’ll find their feet here. Nwakaeme looks as deadly as ever up front and there’s plenty of good attacking players in this team; it’s only defence that they struggle.
Helpfully, KuPS miss number one goalkeeper Vilmunen today, which should further confuse the already confused KuPS defence. Some more bit-part player are absent but nobody else I really care for; possibly holding midfielder Ollo but KuPS’ midfield has looked solid enough lately anyway.
Therefore, I think we’ve got a nailed on both sides to score bet here, guys. KuPS have conceded the vast majority of their goals lately from set pieces and crosses, which is what VPS specialise in. Well, I say “specialise” – what I mean is that that’s their only route to goal and they are one of the most dangerous sides in the Veikkausliiga from set pieces so I’m sure they’ll score at somepoint. KuPS are the better side with plenty of attacking fire and I think they’ll score too, especially with no Tanska to handle Nwakaeme. I wouldn’t enter the 1×2 market here though, just as a final warning – you never know if KuPS will rest players for their UEFA Europa League clash with Gaz Metan Medias of Romania next week or not.
P.S. Are you superstitious? I sure hope not – KuPS have failed to score on their last four visits to Vaasa!
Team news – VPS Vaasa miss Tanska and Koskela whereas KuPS Kuopio miss Vilmunen, Hoivala, Hynynen, Ollo, and Paananen.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 3/4.