TFT Issue 156!
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Featured game
Zestafoni vs Dacia Chisinau – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA European Champions League Qualifier in Georgia between Zestafoni and Moldovan champions Dacia Chisinau.
The hosts have earned something of a reputation in Europe over the past few years of playing good attacking football. For example, they’ve taken on the likes of Dukla Banska Bystrica from Slovakia and won 3-0 at home in the UEFA Europa League Qualifiers before now, as well as destroying San Marinese outfit Faetano 5-0 at home. However, history shows that when they face a good side, they rarely tend to have their own way. They’re average at the back and that does undo them when they meet a good side because they rarely score goals against good sides. A good example would be their back-to-back defeats against Karpaty Lviv of Ukraine last season, losing each leg 1-0. Karpaty didn’t find it hard to contain them and it was ironically the same when the two met a couple of weeks ago in a friendly – Karpaty dominating.
Dacia Chisinau are not Karpaty, of course. However, they do boast their best squad for some time and it really shows. They don’t play attractive attacking football – they play boring possession football but they do it efficiently. They generally adopt this tactic in Europe too, as they demonstrated in last season’s UEFA Europa League Qualifiers, scoring just once in four games but conceding just three times along the way. They went through on away goals against Zeta Golubovci and lost 0-2 at home against Sweden’s Kalmar FF despite having impressively taken a 0-0 draw from Sweden. Dacia have virtually the same team as they did last season too, so the experience and cohesion is growing. To finish above Sheriff Tiraspol in Moldova, you have to do very well indeed but most of all, you have to be consistent. That’s what Dacia are – consistent.
I don’t think the odds really reflect how close this game should be, to be honest – there could be some value in laying Zestafoni as they do struggle to break down good sides – they just run riot against bad defences. Dacia’s defence is pretty strong though and if they score, they don’t usually push for another. I expect Dacia to sit back and contain here and I doubt Zestafoni will score more than once, if at all. With the above in mind, under 2.5 goals appeals to me here today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.