TFT Issue 157!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Differdange 03 vs Levadia Tallinn – lay Levadia Tallinn at 6/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League Qualifier in Luxembourg between Differdange 03 and Levadia Tallinn.
I love betting on Luxembourgian sides. Why? Well, because everyone just looks at them and goes “they’re shit – they’re from Luxembourg!”. Happily, they couldn’t be further from the truth as those stereotypes tend to be what fuck gamblers over, to be honest.
Let’s look at the fact that no Luxembourgian side has lost a home game in Europe for nearly two years now and believe me – a lot of teams have played from Luxembourg. Their game is really improving and they’re seriously not easy to beat any more, especially at home. Away from home they can naturally come unstuck but I would strongly recommend not underestimating Luxembourgian home sides any more, irrespective of today’s result.
Differdance 03 are a decent outfit, from what I’ve seen of them. I think they’re not only capable of not losing this game but they stand a good chance of winning it. I really don’t agree with Levadia being priced so short here – it just doesn’t make sense. They have been in Europe for the past few years now, so sure, you can expect them to be experienced – or can you? The bookies seem to have forgotten that Levadia sold almost all their first-team pre-season due to financial problems and subsequently don’t have an attack fit to grace a European game any more. Only ageless Nahk and his amazing free-kicks can win them games like this and even then, it’s going to be very hard. The only part of their team that remained largely entact following their clear-out was their defence so they don’t ship too many. However, I genuinely don’t think they’ll score here today so it should be a very interesting game from my point of view.
For me, laying Levadia at 6/5 here is a gift. Levadia sold all their experienced and good strikers – they have some decent youngsters that work well in the Meistriliiga but away from home in Europe? I doubt it.
Verdict: Lay Levadia Tallinn at 6/5.
Additional games
Suduva Marijampole vs Elfsborg Boras – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Fun, fun, fun! We all know how much Elfsborg Boras hate playing on natural turf and yet that’s what awaits them here. This is the best Suduva team for some years and they’re capable of holding Elfsborg in what should be an uncomfortable game for the Swedes. I watched them beat Orebro 3-0 at weekend and the reliance on Svensson in midfield was pretty huge, to be honest. I’m not convinced Elfsborg have it in them to score many in this game – they rarely do on such turf. Suduva are strong at home in the A Lyga but at breaking down a decent European opponent? I’m not so sure. I think this game is generously priced for under 2.5 goals so that’s my call here, although I cannot deny that I was tempted to lay Elfsborg at 6/5.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
KuPS Kuopio vs Gaz Metan Medias – away win with draw no bet at 4/5.
I like KuPS but it’s in European games that Finnish clubs tend to find out how far they are behind most of Europe. KuPS have a good attack that could cause problems here but it’s nothing that Gaz Metan don’t see and defend against in Romania. The reason I think the Romanians will win this one is not only their superior average quality of player but also the fact that they kept star Eric. He was arguably the best player in Romania last season and he can win games on his own with his set pieces, trickery, and passing, not to mention his finishing. KuPS’ defence is very vulnerable and I cannot see how they’ll deal with their Brazilian enemy Eric tonight at all. Gaz Metan are notoriously hard to score against in Romania and even if the hosts do score, I fancy the visitors to score at least two against KuPS’ shoddy defence so my call is the away win with draw no bet cover.
Verdict: Gaz Metan Medias to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Paksi SE vs Tromso – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I like overs a lot here. It’s not being played in Paksi’s stadium as it doesn’t meet European requirements so this big, wide pitch will only suit attacking sides. Bad news for Tromso from that perspective, though – they’ve now sold two of their regular back four with Norli and Regniussen both having left. We may see a new approach from Tromso in the Eliteserien soon as they can’t defend away from home without those two the way that they usually do so they may start attacking more. On a big pitch like this with a lot of support behind Paksi (Hungarians tend to support them because all their squad is completely Hungarian), I think the Norwegians are in for an uncomfortable evening. Paksi aren’t a great team but they work hard and create chances. I think the Norwegians are a tad short here but I wouldn’t enter the 1×2 market anyway. However, over 2.5 goals definitely appeals to me here as Paksi have to make a go of it tonight – I don’t see them winning in the Alfheim, which is actually in the Arctic Circle! For me, it’s overs all the way with Tromso unable to play their defensive game any more.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.