TFT Issue 161!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Kalmar FF vs Helsingborg – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Allsvenskan encounter between Kalmar and Helsingborg. This game is completely sold out as locals expect a good game and they’re entitled to do so, too, especially after Kalmar’s strong displays at home this season.
However, I aim to be something of a “party pooper” here as I expect this one to be a pretty droll encounter. Why? Well the better side tends to dictate what happens in games like these and the better side here is unquestionably Helsingborg. It’s only the second time this season that Kalmar have hosted a better side than they are at the Guldfrageln Arena and considering that the other side they hosted was none other than Elfsborg “we can’t play on natural grass for shit” Boras, I expect this one to be their first real test of the season.
Kalmar like to think that they have a legitimate chance of challenging the likes of Helsingborg and Malmo to the Allsvenskan crown this season and although it’s nice to see such optimism, I just don’t see it happening because Kalmar are one of the worst sides in Sweden when playing away from home. It’s something I’ve never been able to understand, really. I know that they have vociferous fans when playing at home so perhaps that’s partially why? Even so – never back Kalmar away from home!
That aside, Kalmar aren’t the side they were a couple of seasons ago, really. They’ve still got some talented players – Santos, Mendes, and especially Sobralense spring to mind. We’ve also yet to see anything of the highly-rated Bertilsson – it’ll be interesting to see what affect he has on this Kalmar team, if any. Kalmar are a very stentorian unit on their own turf, anyway – they tend to play football their way and nobody coming here likes it. However, I don’t think that’ll be the case today and subsequently, I don’t think Kalmar will like it one bit.
However, history shows that Kalmar have the voodoo sign over Helsingborg when playing at home, winning their last four home games against the reigning champions, only conceding in one of those games. Add that statistic to the general rule of thumb that I always advise when betting in Sweden – a.k.a. don’t bet against Kalmar at home and don’t ever bet against Helsingborg – and we have a classic “no bet” on the 1×2 front. If you bet on that market, you’re insane! You may win your bet but that really is a total gamble here.
Helsingborg are pretty much at full-strength here and are the epitome of composure in the Allsvenskan. They’ve yet to consistently deliver an attacking threat in each game and that has cost them points away from home this season, failing to win two out of their last three away games against Djurgarden and IFK Norrkoping respectively. Nonetheless, this side is very good at keeping the ball and at keeping other sides out, which is where their strength comes from. It’s only going to take a bit of maturing from young strike duo Gerndt and Jonsson (I don’t think Sundin can “mature” any more than he already has!) before Helsingborg dominate this league properly. I expec them to win the league this season anyway, although that’s by-the-by. Karlsson has got this side playing in an almost arrogant fashion and Allsvenskan sides find it hard to play against, which is what I expect to see from Kalmar today, irrespective of their dominant home record against Helsingborg over the past few years.
So, yeah – I expect a close game here. I daresay most punters will plump for the overs or the home win here based on the more obvious statistics but to me, it just doesn’t make sense to do that, not having seen how both sides play football. Instead of the obvious 1×2 market or the “wild stab” of overs, I’m going under 2.5 goals here. This fixture has gone under 2.5 goals for six consecutive meetings at either ground because the two sides cancel each other out well and neither have the necessary firepower to consistently tear the other side apart. I mean, seriously – the last time this game went over 2.5 goals was when Kalmar had their dangerous Elm trio and Helsingborg were fronted by arguably the most lethal duo to play in Sweden in the last decade – Henrik Larsson and Razak Omotoyossi. Those days are gone now – Helsingborg have a promising attack and Kalmar have a pretty good attack but neither are excellent, if you know what I mean. I think we’ll see the two sides nullify one another here, as per usual, and thus under 2.5 goals really appeals to me at 4/5.
Team news – Kalmar FF miss Arajuuri and Wasta whereas Helsingborg miss Patronen and Ohlander
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.