TFT Issue 162!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
F91 Dudelange vs Maribor – lay Maribor at 8/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League encounter in Luxembourg between F91 Dudelange and Slovenian heavyweights Maribor. Maribor won the first leg 2-0 so the hosts have a lot of work to do to progress tonight.
I’ve told you all recently how much stronger Luxembourgian sides are than they used to be when playing at home and I expect more of the same today. It’s perhaps unfair of me to say that they’ve improved solely at home, really – some are playing well away from home and Dudelange was one of those sides. The 2-0 loss in Slovenia wasn’t a fair scoreline, in my eyes, not with Dudelange hitting the crossbar and having a stonewall penalty denied in that game. It’s no coincidence that Maribor rested players for this game against Gorica in the Prva Liga at weekend to make sure they go through against an “inferior” Luxembourgian team.
I can’t really say that I follow the Luxembourgian league, although I used to, sadly enough! However, I’ve noted the improvement of the clubs in Europe and considering that Dudelange are currently the best in Luxembourg, expecting a lot from them in comparison to their compatriots doesn’t seem to be a lot. They’ve nothing to lose here so why not go for it? Maribor have been poor this season in every game they’ve played in – in the Super Cup against Domzale, in the league game with Gorica, and in the first leg of this tie. Maribor’s departed players are yet again wreaking havoc on this team and I would not be surprised one bit to see them come to Luxembourg to play for the draw.
I’ll be very surprised to see Maribor go all out to win this game as they’re not stupid enough to view themselves as highly as the bookies do. They will go for the counters and maybe they’ll have some joy; who knows? Football can be very strange sometimes. However, one thing is for sure and that’s that they do not merit the odds they’re at right now so my call is to lay the overrated visitors in a game that they don’t even need to draw to progress at generous odds of 8/5.
Team news – Maribor have doubts over Rajcevicu and Trajkovski.
Verdict: Lay Maribor at 8/5.
Additional game
HB Torshavn vs Malmo FF – lay Malmo FF at 12/5.
This is another one that the bookies have priced way too short. The Faroe Islands is always a difficult place to play football because it’s:
A. Primarily very cold and windy
B. Full of artificial pitches
C. Physical football
I went heavily on Malmo in the first leg because HB Torshavn are having a nightmare of a season and are really struggling to score goals. However, Malmo were easily kept at bay in the first-half with HB’s defensive tactics and only an improvement second-half allowed Norling’s men to break through and win 2-0, one of which was an own goal. Malmo and Norling just aren’t clicking properly yet and I doubt we’ll see them even win this difficult game, let alone win it convincingly as many people on forums etc. are suggesting.
Artificial turf is notoriously hard to play on and in Torshavn with no real reason to win, I just don’t see Malmo doing the business here. Norling seems to prefer a 4-5-1 with Malmo which doesn’t suit them and they look less dangerous in attack because of it. I think he’ll do that here because they’ve no reason to win the game whereas HB Torshavn will play for pride. Let’s not forget the job that they did on Austria’s Salzburg last year, too. Admittedly, HB are weaker now than they were then and particularly struggle in front of goal but I don’t find it likely that they’d go gung-ho here – most Faroese clubs approach games like this knowing they’re already out.
Therefore, I think we’ll see a hard-fought and driven display from the ineffectual hosts against their unconvincing and uncertain opponents. I think we’ll see under 2.5 goals as a result but I find an awful lot of value in laying Malmo here – I just don’t see enough from them in attack at the moment to convince me that they’re worthy of such short odds. HB are experienced enough and strong enough in midfield to cause a mini upset today and laying Malmo at extremely long odds of 12/5 really appeals to me here.
Team news – Malmo FF have doubts over Hamad.
Verdict: Lay Malmo FF at 12/5.