TFT Issue 165!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Meistriliiga encounter between Levadia Tallinn and Trans Narva. Both clubs are heavyweights in Estonia but I have to favour the hosts here.
True enough, Levadia crashed out of the UEFA Europa League a few days ago against Differdange 03 of Luxembourg but for anyone who was a member at the time will tell you, that simply wasn’t a surprise as Levadia don’t have an attack capable of troubling European sides. Domestically, though, this Levadia team is competent enough to win games like this, as they demonstrated in a recent 3-2 win against Sillame Kalev. The team is effectively being carried by Leitan and Nahk in midfield but they’re both terrific players at this level and can win games like this at the drop of a hat. Subbotin has aided them by stepping up to the mark this season and Levadia have a great spirit and confidence about them that I respect a lot. They need it, though – their attackers are average at best, unfortunately. However, this midfield creates a lot of chances and you have to expect Levadia to take at least one of them at somepoint, just as they have in every Meistriliiga home game this season. Therefore, the foundation for a home win is already there.
I’m more interested in Trans Narva’s contribution – or lack of – for this game, however. They recently played a game against reigning champions Flora Tallinn and to say that they were physically battered would be an understatement. That game has left Trans Narva with three/four injured players, according to Trans Narva’s physio, although it’s not been released as of yet as to which players are actually missing. Trans Narva have gone a bit mad, accusing Flora Tallinn of deliberately injuring their players and to say that they’re unhappy with things at the moment would be an understatement. On the brighter side of things, they’ve picked up Kulik and Tarassenkov from Sillamae Kalev to bolster their defence, although I find it unlikely that we’ll see either today. Trans Narva are a resilient side that are generally hard to break through but they’ve been done over five times in their last seven meetings with Levadia Tallinn, including a 2-1 defeat earlier this season, so they don’t tend to enjoy these games!
This will be a tight game, no doubt, but I do find value on Levadia winning at 4/5. They’ve developed an efficiency in winning games like this despite not really having the personnel up front whereas Trans Narva struggle to kill sides off despite defending well. I think it’ll be 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline but either way, with Trans Narva clearly suffering with injuries and their hosts usually doing the business at home, 4/5 on a Levadia win appeals to me here.
Verdict: Levadia Tallinn to win at 4/5.
Additional games
FC Honka Espoo vs Haka Valkeakoski – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
Honka were a bit unfortunate to not at least score against Hacken mid-week in the UEFA Europa League but Hacken were more efficient in the final third and it cost them. However, their attention is back on the Veikkausliiga and given their poor start, they need points – now!
Despite their lethal attack, Honka have won far too few games this season because they’ve not scored enough goals. The return of Savage to their starting line-up has changed that, however, and should change things today, too. As one of the most talented attackers in the league, Gambian hitman Savage is often responsible for leading the team although it’s pleasing to see that he’s beginning to force a dangerous partnership with Nigerian striker Dudu, who was signed from KuPS Kuopio pre-season. They have plenty of support from midfield and enjoy playing an attractive attacking game and subsequently, Honka are rarely short of chances to score goals; they just need to be taking them. They’ve bagged seven goals in their last four Veikkausliiga games, though, so their goalscoring potency is returning. Their defence is as shambolic as ever but that doesn’t concern me today, for a change!
Why doesn’t it concern me? Well, not only are Haka a very poor side but their best striker by a mile – Metzger – is still suspended. I don’t rate him too highly as it is but he works hard, he’s pretty strong, and he’s quick; therefore, he is a threat, irrespective of his wayward finishing. Happily, he’s not a threat for Honka’ suspect defence today, though. You can see how much it’s affected Haka, too – JJK don’t have a good defence but Haka failed to score against them at home when he served the first game of his three-match ban. Happily, Haka are a pretty terrible side, to be honest. They work hard enough; can’t fault them there. They’re just utterly devoid of talent in all areas of the field, hence their predicament. Some players can turn it on from time to time like Robinson but quality-wise, they’re still a long way behind Honka and I expect it to show here.
I hope Honka’s immaturity doesn’t rear its ugly head here as it has done a few times this season. Either way, though – I still fancy Honka to win this one comfortably. I think Haka will find it very hard to score without Metzger up front and I can’t see Honka leaving this game without scoring. Therefore, the home win with a -1 Asian Handicap appeals to me at 4/5.
Team news – Haka Valkeakoski miss Metzger, Ojala, Popovits, Pirinen, and Koljander.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.
IFK Mariehamn vs KuPS Kuopio – under 2.5 goals at evens.
IFK welcome a tired KuPS Kuopio side to Aland shortly after their return from Romania, where they lost 2-0 against Gaz Metan Medias and subseqeuently crashed out of the UEFA Europa League.
IFK Mariehamn welcome back key defender Kojola from suspension, which gives them a full defence to choose from for the first time in many weeks, which helps here. They’re always a force at home, IFK – they’re a very physical and able side. They’ve got plenty of creativity in Emet and Forsell and a good striker in Kangaskolkka so the nucleus is there for IFK. They still miss a few players through injury, the most notable of which are striker Ingves and especially winger Okodugha. The absence of the Nigerian makes IFK attack through the middle a lot more as they aren’t strong on the flanks and that has made it easier to defend against them in recent times, which is something KuPS may look to exploit today.
KuPS anticipated being tired here and have left some players behind today, namely star striker Nwakaeme and number one Vilmunen. Vilmunen isn’t a massive blow as KuPS’ goalkeepers have all been somewhat error-prone this season as it is; it doesn’t make a great deal of difference to their dubious defence. However, they have acquired ex-HJK Helsinki hitman Paulus Roiha, who has spent some time travelling around Europe and playing for various clubs, the most notable of which was probably Hearts. He’s a good striker, especially at this level, and he should give KuPS yet another option in attack. We may well see him today, according to reports, although I’m not too concerned about that as he’s not match fit yet. KuPS lack a certain something without Nwakaeme as he is creative and spontaneous whereas Ilo and Venelainen are more consistent but also more predictable. KuPS still have attacking threats and will be pleased to welcome back Nykanen from suspension in midfield but they’re not at full strength here and they’re playing their fourth game in ten days. With that in mind, I really don’t expect a zesty display from the yellow-and-blacks; I expect more of their slow and progressive approach to be used here as they’re good at keeping the ball.
Maybe KuPS will get some joy here; who knows? It’s not a 1×2 game to enter, in my view. Indeed, IFK Mariehamn being priced at 4/7 is laughably short for this game. because they’re not terrific in attack themselves, even if KuPS do rest players. Therefore, the +1 Asian Handicap at 4/5 on KuPS Kuopio is one that is in my mind ahead of this game. However, I’m going to stick with under 2.5 goals here – KuPS are predominantly vulnerable in defence from wide positions, which is where you’ll rarely find IFK Mariehamn. Neither side has all of their attacking weapons available to them and I expect a rather slow and dull game here, as much as IFK will no doubt try to make it otherwise. For me, under 2.5 goals is very appealing at 4/5.
Team news – IFK Mariehamn miss Okodugha, Mikko Paatelainen, Markus Paatelainen, and Ingves whereas KuPS Kuopio miss Vilmunen, Nwakaeme, Hynynen, and Ollo.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.