TFT Issue 167!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Racing Genk vs Partizan Belgrade – home win at 3/4.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Champions League game in Belgium between Genk and Partizan Belgrade. The visitors are far more experienced than their hosts in European football but I think Genk will edge it today.
Genk didn’t really do much pre-season, to be honest. They kept their strong attacking nucleus of Vossen, Barda, De Bruyne, and Ogunjimi together and those four wreak havoc on defences. Defensively, Genk still have work to do but as an attacking side, they’re very good indeed. They need more depth from a long-term perspective and their inexperience makes me unsure just how far they can go in this tournament. However, for the present time at least, I’m very convinced by the strong offensive power that they wield and thus they interest me tonight.
It aids my cause that Partizan Belgrade aren’t in a great position. They signed full-back Rnic from Anderlecht to bolster their defensive line but there are still question marks over whether he’ll be able to be fielded here. Partizan desperately need him to be available, though – they sold Savic to Manchester City, old hand Krstajic retired, Marques has done his hamstring in, and Partizan’s defence is really looking weak as a result. They’ve tried utilising Rankovic at the back instead of in midfield and it’s just not working out for them. They’ve also got problems in attack with their strikers wasteful in front of goal. Lastly, their midfield (especially through the middle) is slow and against a youthful and swift side like Genk, they look set for a very long night tonight. Partizan do have experience and their strength has always been keeping sides out but looking at their squad ahead of this game, I’d be very surprised to see them leave Belgium with a clean sheet.
If I had more of an idea as to how Genk would approach UEFA Champions League football then I’d be tempted by a handicap but as I’m not, I’ll play it safe and stick with the straight home win. Genk can concede goals against most sides, let’s not forget! Partizan are just so vulnerable at the back and through the middle that I’d be amazed if Genk don’t win this one with the proviso that they take their changes. For me, there’s value in Genk winning this one at 3/4, especially with a full squad at their disposal.
Team news – Partizan Belgrade miss Marques.
Verdict: Racing Genk to win at 3/4.
Additional games
IF Fuglafjordur vs B68 Toftir – home win at 9/10.
I fancy IF Fuglafjordur to win this one today. Nolsoe and Eliasen have had a positive effect on the team since taking over, breathing new life throughout them and they deserve better than their results have shown. They fought bravely against KR Reykjavik in the UEFA Europa League but were ultimately outclassed; they were facing a better team, after all. As far as their Meistaradeildin games go, they’ve been impressive under their new management duo. They were one of the few sides to prevent machine-esque league leaders B36 Torshavn from winning in a well-earned draw before drubbing B71 Sandur 1-4 on the road. They lost 1-0 at 07 Vestur Sorvagur but you may recall that I tipped that to happen at 6/5 because it was somewhat inevitable that IF would have their minds on their first leg game with KR Reykjavik. That much happened, with newly-promoted 07 Vestur Sorvargur taking a very early lead. However, rather than pushing to finish it off, they were utterly dominated by IF Fuglafjordur, who were very unlucky not to equalise. I like the spirit IF have at the moment, though – that’s the main reason I’m backing them here. Additionally, they welcome back attacker Dalbud, which is instrumental here. He was terrific for them last season and it’s no surprise that their potency dried up when he departed to continue his studies in Denmark. Well, he’s back now and I expect IF’s goalscoring potency to improve dramatically as a result. Their only bad news prior to this game was that they loaned Lambanum to NSI Runavik, who has been a regular this season. Nonetheless, with their current strong spirit and increased potency, I expect a lot from this side who are realistically a top five side; only a bad start sees them where they are in the Meistaradeildin table.
Visitors B68 Toftir are a bit of a pain to play against. They have a lot of belief in themselves, which is why they never go down without a fight, especially away from home. Their African contingent (i.e. Camara, Keita, Gueye) makes this side lethal from counter-attacks and Faroese sides generally find it hard to deal with them. However, their defence is shambolic and subsequently, you’ll rarely find them keeping a clean sheet. However, unlike their hosts (who have played two games), B68 Toftir haven’t played in a month so they’re not sharp at the moment and I think an enthused and able IF Fuglafjordur should take advantage of them here.
Therefore, the home win at 9/10 appeals to me here.
Verdict: IF Fuglafjordur to win at 9/10.
Tauras Taurage vs Zalgiris Vilnius – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
I love Lithuanian under 2.5 goals calls, as some of you will no doubt recall. I frequently feel that the bookies over-price under 2.5 goals selections and this is another classic example. I’ve no doubt that it’ll go wrong at somepoint but so many go right that it’s hard to not keep trying it.
Zalgiris are a side drastically overrated by the bookies because of their dominant home form. It basically makes their statistics look amazing when they’re not actually a particularly good side. They’ve got a lot of history behind them and are well-supported but they’re not at the level of Suduva Marijampole or Ekranas Panevezys – they lack the firepower and even the adventure to be as good as their more illustrious A Lyga rivals. Zalgiris score and then hold it in pretty much every game and I don’t see those tactics changing here. Will they even win the game, though? They’ve not played a competitive match in twenty-three days whereas hosts Tauras Taurage have played two games with Netherlands’ ADO Den Haag, fighting valiantly but unfortunately succumbing to defeat. Barring their drubbing of Atlantas, Tauras haven’t scored more than two in any A Lyga home game this season. Indeed, they only managed two goals in one game, which was against newly-promoted Klaipeda. They’ve failed to score in two of their other home games. Defensively, only Banga Gargzdai have surprisingly cut through them at home but then again, it perhaps wasn’t so surprising as Tauras Taurage are sharing their ground for a while whilst their own is renovated. Everyone else finds them a nightmare to score against and I expect Zalgiris to find that a real problem too.
It’s no coincidence that all of Zalgiris’ away games in the A Lyga so far this season have gone under 2.5 goals because they’re watertight in defence and totally unadventurous in attack. Their last three four games have all ended 0-1 and that scoreline today wouldn’t surprise me one bit. I’d not enter the 1×2 market today as I see no value there whatsoever, especially with Tauras Taurage still clinging to the remnants of their best squad in years, but under 2.5 goals at 9/10 looks an absolute steal here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.