TFT Issue 169!
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The bin
Hameenlinna vs Viikingit Helsinki – away win at 9/10.
I was tempted to take the away win here given how congested Hameenlinna’s fixtures have been lately. It helps that Viikingit are considerably better than they are, too, not to mention Hameenlinna’s poor home record. However, the news that Viikingit may be missing Sesay and Hirvonen in defence makes this a big no bet as they could concede against Hameenlinna’s counters quite easily with only half their defence so it’s a big “no bet” for me today.
Wacker Innsbruck vs Austria Vienna – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
With Austria Vienna likely to rotate players here and neither side being too adventurous with their respective styles, under 2.5 goals appealed to me here. However, the absence of experienced Czech defender Svejnoha for the hosts is a big threat to this bet so I’m going to skip this one today.
Featured game
Fluminense vs Ceara – under 2.5 goals at evens.
Fluminense’s acquisition of striker Rafael Sobis is yet to resolve Fluminense’s goalscoring problems although it’s perhaps a bit unfair to say that after just two appearances for his new club. After all, if anyone knows how to get him going then it’s Abel Braga. The signing of Martinuccio again showed Fluminense’s desire to become a goalscoring side again but he’s yet to feature for the Tricolor. With Fred back from the Copa America and options in his team, you have to feel that Abel Braga is starting to run out of excuses for his side being the second lowest scoring side in Serie A right now with only rock-bottom Atletico Paranaense worse off than them. Fluminense are defending well but they’re ineffectual in front of goal and the sale of influential playmaker Conca did nothing to improve that fact. The reliance is now heavily on Deco to support the frontline and we all know he’s a capable player; he’s just working with very little at the moment.
However, the question marks here are over Ceara rather than Fluminense, for me. Barring an inspirational start from their newbies, I know exactly what to expect from Fluminense and I’m happy with that. What I need from Ceara is for them to be fighting for every ball, defending doggedly, and approaching the game with belief. When they do that, they’re a nightmare to play against because of their small town mentality. They approach games as underdogs because that’s how they’ve always approached games – they’re simply not a very good team. However, they’re very well-organised and hard to break down, albeit moreso on their own turf than away from home. Nonetheless, they’ve only lost twice on the road this season, capitulating against Coritiba and being drubbed by Atletico Goianiense (whose coach used to be in charge of Ceara so it wasn’t too unexpected!). However, they’ve won 0-1 at Internacional and drawn 1-1 at high-flying Flamengo along the way, which shows that they relish the big games, which again is a small town mentality approach. Fluminense are a big side; I expect Ceara to be very highly charged for this game and I think the hosts will find life very difficult here.
Ultimately, you have to expect Fluminense to steal a goal at somepoint but to be honest, we’ve been thinking that all season long and they’re still not doing it. Ceara will smell blood here and they should fight for every ball and be the immovable object that they like to portray themselves as tonight. They miss key attacking midfielder Thiago Humberto so I find the chances of them breaking through Fluminense’s stiff defence somewhat minimal. With all of the above in mind, I have to favour under 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news – Ceara miss Thiago Humberto.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Additional games
KuPS Kuopio vs JJK Jyvaskyla – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This derby in central Finland sees KuPS getting back into their stride and JJK somewhat knocked off theirs right now. However, both sides have good news regarding their respective African attackers with KuPS hitman Nwakaeme having been told he’s staying in Finland following the collapse of his transfer to Uzbekistan (no club name was divulged and Wusu getting straight back into form following his return from lengthy injury absence for JJK Jyvaskyla. Both players are integral to each team and should prove to be dangerous threats here.
I’m not sure they need them though, to be honest. Both sides play very attacking football and should score a lot of goals. JJK do; that’s why they’re having a good season as their defence couldn’t keep a cow out. However, KuPS have been sluggish and somewhat uninterested until the last few weeks, in which time they’ve woken up and played some good football.
JJK beat KuPS 2-0 earlier in the season when KuPS had their mind their Suomen Cup Semi-Final and rested players. With nothing but the Veikkausliiga on their minds now, you can bet that revenge will be the name of the game today in this local derby. JJK don’t travel well but have a very strong midfield, which makes them especially dangerous on counter-attacks. KuPS are good at breaking through sides and the combination of these two attacking sides really should yield goals today.
For me, over 2.5 goals is very appealing at 4/5 today. Nwakaeme won’t be playing for KuPS, unfortunately, but Ilo is back so I’m ok with it, especially now they have Roiha in their ranks.
Team news – KuPS Kuopio miss Nwakaeme, Ollo, and Balogh whereas JJK Jyvaskyla miss Korte, Nieminen, and Markkula whilst having doubts over Manninen.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
VPS Vaasa vs Jaro Pietarsaari – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Vaasa is not a typical location where you’ll see overs but I think we might just see that today. You may recall me mentioning that key centre-back Tanska has been effectively ruled out for the season, which ruins VPS’ iron defence. Well, in addition to his absence today, VPS miss Koskimaa through suspension (another defender) and goalkeeper Henriksson. To say that their defence is in tatters would be a huge understatement here. But it gets worse for VPS! Yes, they’re missing regular attacker Bjork and leading goalscorer Kokko for this game. So why not the away win with draw no bet cover? I would normally but I hate backing away teams in Vaasa and Inter Turku’s inexplicable 3-3 draw here was a prime example of why that is. This side lies down for nobody and is a constant threat from set pieces. Additionally, they’ve just employed a new manager – Vuorinen – and you never know what effect that can have on a team.
Jaro are only missing Zeze and although I do rate him as their best striker, I’m not concerned here. Why? Well, Niang is also a good striker and in addition to the pacey African hitman, Jaro now have towering Georgian striker Sirbiladze in their ranks following a recent move from KPV Kokkola in the Ykkonen. He’s already made his mark by scoring the winner at home against HJK Helsinki and with VPS seriously short in defence, I’d love to get odds on him scoring in this game! Those two are dangerous strikers and with Agyeman always a threat from midfield and Jaro enjoying a decent run of late, I expect a good display from them here today, although it’s worth noting that they’ve seemingly lost the ability to defend.
Doubts over the fitness of Grove throws question marks at Jaro’s already suspect defence and ultimately, we’ve got two sides here who are going to have to attack or face the prospect of getting nothing from the game as I can’t see either side keeping a clean sheet. For me, there’s value in over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news – VPS Vaasa miss Tanska, Koskimaa, Henriksson, Bjork, and Kokko whereas Jaro Pietarsaari miss Zeze and have doubts over Grove.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Jippo Joensuu vs FC Espoo – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Resilient hosts Jippo are missing just about every player that’s ever played for them in today’s game, or so it seems! This side is a rock-solid unit, however – it takes a great display to score goals against them in Joensuu, in my opinion. That task may be made a tad easier today with Maattanen and Ekroos both absent. However, defending is Jippo’s speciality and I still expect them to make life very hard for unlucky FC Espoo. Worryingly, Jippo are missing their best striker – Ronkko – and have big doubts over his fellow striker Nguekam, potentially leaving ex-HJK Helsinki hitman Keister to lead the line. Jippo are not a goalscoring side by nature and that should be evident today with their absentees. Intriguingly, FC Espoo were rather dominant in the second-half of their last match, losing 1-2 rather unluckily against OPS Oulu. However, that’s the story of FC Espoo’s season, really – missing a lot of chances in one context or another. They’re not great defensively but that shouldn’t matter here – Jippo aren’t good at finding the net and have few people who can do it today. There’s a possibility that FC Espoo could take momentum from their second-half display last match into this game and spring a surprise here. I wouldn’t bet on the 1×2 market, although Jippo do seem short here when you consider their absentees. However, under 2.5 goals being priced at 9/10 when both sides struggle to score goals appeals to me here.
Team news – Jippo Joensuu miss Maattanen, Ronkko, Ekroos, Kettunen, and Toni Tahvanainen whilst having doubts over Nguekam.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Debreceni VSC vs Ferencvaros – home win at 4/5.
These two sides really don’t like each other, first and foremost! Ferencvaros simply loathe Debreceni VSC for the success that they’ve had whilst Ferencvaros were languishing in the division below. Ferencvaros are the biggest club in Hungary, you see – they’re the most successful one, too – so they feel that trophies should be theirs by rights. With a talented coach like Prukner at the helm, it may not be long before that is a reality, to be honest. However, I doubt that we’ll see that in today’s game.
Debreceni VSC have obtained some stability after their appalling, topsy-turvy campaign last season which saw UEFA hit them with suspensions for match-fixing and saw them lose key players. However, it’s a new season and Debreceni VSC look very fresh, already drubbing Vasas Budapest 5-2 and winning 0-2 at Zalaegerszegi TE. It’s their new attackers that are doing the damage, too. Towering Estonian striker Zahovaiko and prolific accomplice Coulibaly are causing nightmares for Hungarian defences and Ferencvaros’ leaky line should be bread and butter for them here. As a rule of thumb, Debreceni VSC are almost always deadly at home and I expect them to prove it here.
I wish I couldn’t make this bet, to be honest. I’m a bit of a football romantic and I’d love to see Ferencvaros back at the top of the tree in Hungarian football. However, despite Prukner’s wonderful job, I still feel that the club is some distance behind Fehervar and Debreceni VSC. They do have some very good players in their side, don’t get me wrong, and new players like Felipe Felix and Somalia in attack have bedded in well. Hell, don’t rule Ferencvaros out from scoring here – they’ve plenty of offensive power with a truckload of Brazilians in their squad. However, they’re still unfamiliar in defence with Prukner adding two more names to their defence pre-season – Otten and Graz. They lost essential defender Tutoric, hence Graz’s acquisition, so it’s going to take time to get them all to gel and that’s shown in their first couple of games and probably will for a bit longer yet. So yeah – Ferencvaros are returning to the good times but one step at a time.
I expect plenty of goals here but for me, Debreceni VSC are the more assured, composed, and consistent of the two sides right now. Additionally, Ferencvaros miss captain Rosa and winger Jovanovic for this game, which leaves a pretty hefty gap on the flank for Debreceni VSC to expose. For me, there’s value in the home win at 4/5.
Team news – Debreceni VSC miss Lokinak whilst having doubts over Bodi and Novakovic whereas Ferencvaros miss Rosa and Jovanovic.
Verdict: Debreceni VSC to win at 4/5.
Helsingborg vs IFK Goteborg – away win with draw no bet at 8/5.
I like this tip far, far more than I should, given the long odds/risk! I’ll explain why though.
First of all, Helsingborg are prioritising European football. They’re locked in a two-legged battle with Bnei Yehuda Tel-Aviv of Israel in the UEFA Europa League. They lost the first leg 1-0 a few days ago after a sluggish start cost them and they host the Israelis in a few days in the second leg so Helsingborg’s minds may not be on this game.
However, the predominant reason that I am going against Helsingborg here is that they’ve been very stupid and sold two of their best players – Gerndt and Nilsson. Gerndt’s talent was never going to go unnoticed and he’s joined many of his fellow countrymen in the Netherlands, opting to attempt to replace Van Wolfswinkel at FC Utrecht, who has subsequently joined Sporting Clube de Lisboa. Helsingborg got a nice sum for him but they’re now very short in attack with young Jonsson left to lead the line on his own. Helsingborg have struggled to score goals consistently this season as it is but no Gerndt gives them problems here. Additionally, the sale of Nilsson – also to FC Utrecht – opens up what is usually a tight Helsingborg defence and you saw the repercussions of that in their 2-2 draw with bitter rivals Malmo FF lately.
But it gets even worse for Helsingborg, who now have key defender Holgersson suspended for this game. I’m looking at this Helsingborg team right now and I cannot see a good back four there! Given that defence is Helsingborg’s only reliable feature, this causes major, major problems and has fans of Elfsborg Boras rubbing their hands with glee ’cause they know that they’re currently the best side in Sweden given all the transfers lately. Lastly, they’re missing Bouaouzan and Eiswohld in midfield, further limiting their options.
Now, the above alone makes me interested in going against Helsingborg here but IFK Goteborg contribute too, of course. They’ve got key midfielder Selakovic back today, which is a timely boost. Star Hysen has travelled – as a rule of thumb, never back IFK Goteborg if he’s not playing! – and IFK Goteborg are only missing young Sana in midfield so they’re pretty much at full-strength here.
IFK Goteborg have been in good form lately. They’ve won four out of their last five games in all competitions, bagging eleven goals along the way. I’ve been very impressed with their creativity and finesse of late – it helps me to compensate for the terror I feel whenever I try to see the famous blue-and-white stripes trying to defend a lead because it’s just something they cannot do! IFK Goteborg will most probably concede in this game – they have a nasty habit of conceding in most games – but I expect them do damage Helsingborg’s frail backline and upset their rivals today, which isn’t unheard of – they’ve avoided defeat on their last two visits to the Olympiastadion, drawing once and winning once.
We have to bear in mind that these two sides are rivals so there may be cards and an element of unpredictability. However, for me, there’s great value on IFK Goteborg piling further misery on their rivals with draw no bet cover at 8/5. In fact, the odds for laying Helsingborg are very good too – I’m just very confident in IFK Goteborg winning this game against the odds, hence the draw no bet selection.
Team news – Helsingborg miss Bouaouzan, Holgersson, Eiswohld, and Ohlander whereas IFK Goteborg miss Sana.
Verdict: IFK Goteborg to win with draw no bet at 8/5.
Nieciecza vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz – home win at evens.
Some of the smaller leagues are funny, aren’t they? Last season, Nieciecza were struggling to stay afloat in Poland’s Liga 1 following promotion and only dogged displays at home kept them in the league. However, they’ve been very smart pre-season, bringing in Radolsky as boss and signing the likes of Pleva, Pawluisinski, Piatek etc. who are experienced and able players at this level. They sprung a surprise by winning at a good Katowice side in the last round of fixtures and many in Poland are tipping them to emerge as promotion candidates. I’m not so sure about that yet myself but they do look good at the moment.
Visitors Zawisza did well in their opening game at home against Sandecja Nowy Sacz, taking a point from their 1-1 draw. However, one thing that Liga 2 clubs always struggle with following promotion is displays on the road and it’s no different in most leagues around the world, if not all leagues. They’re somewhat short on quality too, though, which is another important factor. There’s a good chance that they’ll be heading straight back down to Liga 2 if they don’t bring in more quality in the mid-season transfer window because I don’t see enough there at the moment for them to survive. Ekwueme, Imeh, Blad – they’re decent players but Zawisza aren’t great on the quality front at all.
For me, there’s actually a bigger quality gap than the odds and statistics suggest here. Perhaps the news that Nieciecza transformed massively pre-season has slipped by unnoticed or whatever but either way, the home win is generously priced enough to take a slice of today.
Team news – Nieciecza miss Czerwinski.
Verdict: Nieciecza to win at evens.