TFT Issue 196!
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Featured game
Romania vs France – away win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA European Championship Qualifier in Romania between Romania and France.
In the past, I became quite fond of laying France against Romania because Romania were stubborn and well-organised whereas France were calamitous and severely lacking in the goalscoring department. The boot is on the other foot nowadays, however – Romania are a mess and France look a solid unit under Blanc.
Romania’s defence is in tatters; that has to be held accountable for their downtrend, really. Chivu and Radoi don’t play for Romania anymore, which is a massive blow for Romania. Galamaz is out today, too, so you can see the vulnerability that they have in defence. What’s it going to be – Goian and a newbie? Looks like it to me. Additionally, Marica misses out today along with hot prospect Torje as Romania’s numbers begin to dwindle quite considerably. Petre has been ruled out through injury and with Tamas still out and star attacker Mutu still out, I just don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel for Romania. Worryingly, Romania have to try and win this game to even dream of qualifying for the UEFA European Championships but I look at their side and wonder where the goals will come from. Romania have great spirit when backed into a corner but that’s the only thing that concerns me here because their squad quality is rather weak here, in my view.
France – well, as an Englishman, I can’t say I like them. They’re still not a patch on what they used to be but Blanc is a cracking manager and it’s shown. Just look at how good France’s results have been under him compared to the previous what – five years? He makes them play as a unit and shuts up the big personalities, which is very important in an arrogant French squad. In Benzema they have a very gifted forward and they’ve got lots of experienced and able players in their squad so I think they’ll win this one today. They won in a very difficult Tirana venue last week by a 1-2 scoreline and had it not been for the battling Albanian display, most notably from Lorik Cana, France would have won more heavily. I’d not be tempted to take them on the handicap because Blanc’s sides never go out for another goal after they’ve scored one but the away win at evens looks really inviting here, especially with a win guaranteeing French progression.
Verdict: France to win at evens.
Additional games
Estonia vs Northern Ireland – home win at 7/5.
Estonia are a side constantly underrated by the footballing world and I’m not sure why. They’ve grown massively over the past twelve months and I rate them as a very strong side when they field their starting eleven. If they have to fall back on depth then they start to have problems because they just don’t have that, really. For instance, if they’re ever missing Dmitrijev or Vassiljev then I wouldn’t touch them as both are rather integral to the Estonian attack. They’ve got a solid foundation with Piiroja and Jaager at the back and plenty of quick options up front with Kink, Purje, Zenjov, and lethal finisher Saag to choose from. They’re well-organised and very hard to beat at home and on the back of a 1-2 win at Slovenia, I fancy them to do well here.
Northern Ireland are clinging to the remnants of what was a great team but they’re simply looking worse and worse as each game goes by, in all honesty. They’re still plucky battlers and I’m confident that Healy would still take a chance if it came his way but there’s too little creativity there now for me to fear them. Additionally, there’s big problems in their camp today with the absence of star central defender Jonny Evans, not to mention his brother Corry Evans in midfield, who are both suspended. Regular attacker Lafferty is out, as are Craigan and McCourt, which makes the return of Clingan a bit of a nothing, really. Northern Ireland’s hopes in this game are going to hinge on Brunt, basically, and as good as he is, I just don’t think it’s enough to beat what I would call a very good Estonia side so the home win appeals to me here.
Verdict: Estonia to win at 7/5.
Slovakia vs Armenia – away win with +1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
I can’t deny that the away win with draw no bet at 9/2 is very tempting but I’ll try to play this one cautiously.
Basically, the way I see it, we have a very overrated home side versus a very underrated away side and that can always spring a surprise. Slovakia are far, far too one dimensional, relying on their set pieces to do damage. They’re solid and hard to break through when being attacked but when they’re doing the attacking, they generally produce very little and rarely succeed in winning games. Only Hamsik and Weiss make anything happen and neither have enough competitve match practice ahead of this game. Slovakia are very predictable and although they’re efficient, this is not the kind of game I’d back them in.
Armenia are a bit of a wild card, really. They play exciting attacking football but their vulnerable defence does get caught out as a result. However, they’ll occasionally come across a side which isn’t really capable of outscoring them in terms of potency and with all due respect to Slovakia, I believe that is the case today. Armenia look far more dangerous in attack and have done for about a year now. I’ve watched them a lot over the past year and even during their 3-0 loss at Lithuania, Armenia played the better football, even when being reduced to ten men! I would not underestimate the firepower that this side has in Movsisyan, Manucharyan, and Mkhitaryan so I’m not going to underestimate Armenia here.
Slovakia are an efficient unit which is why I’d be a little surprised to see them win this game by more than a single goal, if at all. I think Armenia can really trouble them here, just as they did during their 3-1 home win against Slovakia, and therefore the +1 Asian Handicap at 11/10 looks good value today.
Verdict: Armenia to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Russia vs Republic of Ireland – lay Russia at 11/10.
This price from Ladbrokes must be a joke, surely? Russia’s newspapers are publishing all kinds of bad things about the team and it clearly affected their display against the Republic of Macedonia. Russia’s best player Arshavin looks a shadow of his former self, which is probably partially due to Arsenal’s poor start to the season. Russia’s huge problem is that they have a real lack of creativity. In essence, they’re a glorified Slovakia which is something that a lot of people fail to acknowledge. Russia are largely predictable in the way that they play and tend to rely heavily on set pieces or their few creative players. They find games like this one against Ireland very hard because Ireland are extremely well-organised battlers. The visitors love these kind of games; it brings out the best in them. The ones Ireland struggle in tend to be the ones in which they’re favourites as breaking sides down is not usually their forté. However, defending against a rather predictable Russian side looks run-of-the-mill stuff to Ireland and I have to say that laying Russia at 11/10 appeals to me a lot today.
Verdict: Lay Russia at 11/10.
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Belarus – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
The alarm bells should have started ringing for any of you that follow international football closely when Bosnia won 0-2 in Belarus. There simply isn’t a side that has an easy game away from home against Belarus because they play deceptively good football and are hard to break down. So why did Bosnia win that one? Bosnia are good but not that good, to be honest.
Well, the reason Belarus crashed was due to absences. They’re absolutely bereft of attacking talent right now due to injuries and it’s crippling their game. Star of the team Aliaksandar Hleb is absent. His brother Vyacheslav Hleb is absent. Their best striker Vitali Rodinov is absent. Pacey striker Leonid Kovel is absent. Veteran striker Kutuzov is absent. To top it off, essential defender Yurevich is absent, as is fellow defender Sosnowski, defensive midfielder Tigorev, and Molosh. There are far, far too many absences here for Belarus to deal with. I’m a big advocate of the Belarusian side but what’s going to happen to make them score here? Kislyak’s long shots? Kalachev’s free-kicks? Krivets’ playmaking abilities? They’re all possibilities but they’re all long shots, if you forgive the pun. Belarus are in a bad way at the moment and I can’t see them getting a result here because of it. Bosnia have Edin Dzeko in terrific form and plenty of attacking talent alongside him with Misimovic, Stilic, Muslimovic, and Ibricic, just to name a few. For me, Bosnia not winning this game is a surprise so that’s the insurance side of it – I just think that with the firepower they have, they’ll be able to bust the handicap and it’s available at generous odds today.
Verdict: Bosnia-Herzegovina to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 6/5.
Team news
Latvia – Gorkss, Rudnevs, and Kolinko are absent.
Slovenia – Ljubljankic is a doubt so Decic has been called into the squad. Handanovic is absent so Koprivec has been called up.
Romania – Torje, Matthew, Papp, Radu, Petre, Sanmartean, Mutu, Tamas, and Galamaz are absent. Marica is a doubt.
Lithuania – Stankevicius, Velicka, Skerla, and Buinickij. Sernas and Radavicius return.
England – Bent, Ferdinand, Johnson, J.Cole, Gerrard, Carrick, Lennon, and Crouch are absent.
Northern Ireland – Lafferty, Craigan, McCourt, J.Evans, and C.Evans. Clingan has been drafted into the team.
Republic of Ireland – O’Shea, Long, and St Ledger are absent. Kelly and O’Dea have been drafted into the team. Keane, Dunne, Given, Doyle, and McGeady are doubts.
Scotland – Miller, Adam, and Mackail-Smith are absent. Whittaker and Hanley return. Bardsley and Hutton are doubts.
Wales – No absentees.
Italy – No absentees.
Italy U21 – Fabbrini is absent.
Slovakia – Kucka is absent. Hubocan and Kello are doubts.
Armenia – Arzumanyan is absent. J.Movsisyan returns.
Israel – Ziv, Keinan, Alberman, Colautti, Sahar, Barda, and Arbeitma are absent.
Japan – Nagatomo, K.Nakamura, Honda, Maeda, and Matsui are absent.
Uzbekistan – Inomov, Gafurov, Hasanov, and Ibrahimov are absent.
Azerbaijan – Mammadov, Nadirov, and Huseynov are absent.
Kazakhstan – Loria, Smakov, Irismetov, Abdulin, Zhumaskaliyev, Karpovich, Skorykh, Chichulin, and Finonchenko are absent.
Belarus – V.Hleb, A.Hleb, Kutuzov, Kovel, Rodionov, Tigorev, Yurevich, Sosnovski, and Molosh are absent.
Bosnia-Herzegovina – Spahic, Pjanic, Nadarevic, Jahic, and Ibisevic are absent. Mujdza is a doubt.
France – Mexes, Diaby, Gourcuff, and L.Diarra are absent.
Nigeria – Taiwo, Odiah, Etuhu, and Martins are absent.
Argentina – Veron and Riquelme are absent.
Faroe Islands – Mikkelsen is absent.
Finland – Arkivuo is a doubt. Fredrikson returns.
Bulgaria – Delev, Manolev, and Tunchev have left the squad.
Czech Republic – Jiracek, Baros, Hubnik, and Rajnoch are doubts.
Poland – Murwaski returns.
Germany – Ozil, Schweinsteiger, Khedira, Gomez, Bender, Reus, and Neuer are absent.
Hungary – Dzsudzsak, Gera, Halmosi, Feher, Szalai, and Liptak are absent. Juhasz and Vanczak return.
Serbia – Krasic and Vidic are absent.
Netherlands – Robben, Afellay, Vlaar, Schaars, and Janssen are absent.
Moldova – Frunza, Boghiu, Ivanov, Bolohan, and Bulgaru are absent.
Republic of Macedonia – Pandev, Tasevski, Noveski, and Demiri are absent.