TFT Issue 199!

10/09/2011

Howdy guys and girls!

Featured game

Arsenal vs Swansea City – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.

Today’s featured game is the Premier League game at The Emirates between Arsenal and Swansea City.

Arsenal (and especially boss Wenger) have come under a lot of stick lately but I expect that to diminish over the coming weeks as Arsenal begin to get players back from injury/suspension and gain some kind of momentum. Yet again, Wenger has been shrewd in the market, bringing in Arteta for a bargain price of £10,000,000, not to mention clever South Korean attacker Park, and giant German centre-back Mertesacker, just to name a few. They’re all clever buys for minimal amounts that will serve a purpose. I mean, weaknesses are there – for instance, Mertesacker is slow, Park isn’t good in the air, Arteta spends a substantial amount of time on the sidelines etc. but my point is that Arsenal have made good signings to strengthen their squad and if those players do as Wenger commands then they’ll win games – simple.

Van Persie’s return is crucial; he’s the best striker in that squad by far and having watched him play for Netherlands in the last week or so, I’m confident he’s almost back to 100% now. Even Walcott seems to have matured and developed a form of consistency, which is strange. However, this Arsenal side is gradually taking shape and that’s what interests me the most here. Wenger is a terrific manager and Arsenal at home on the slick turf at The Emirates are a hard side to face. I expect them to dominate play here and score a few goals, enough to win the game comfortably.

Swansea City are a solid unit but just as they showed against Manchester City earlier this season, if you break through them once, they fall apart. Their defence is not particularly good, contrary to what statistics might show. Indeed, they owe a great deal to arising Dutch goalkeeper Vorm more than anything. They do have some good wingers, Swansea, but they’re short on depth and short on goalscorers so their stay in the Premier League is likely to be a short one. They’ll be a tough nut to crack for a few months yet but should begin to fade after that without the appropriate signings. However, despite the possibility of them scoring against a weak Arsenal defence today, I can’t see them resisting a good Arsenal side for too long and they really should concede at least twice here.

For me, there’s value on the -1.5 home win at 11/10 for a vastly superior Arsenal side.

Verdict: Arsenal to beat the -1.5 handicap at 11/10.

Additional game

Nomme Kalju vs Flora Tallinn – under 2.5 goals at 6/5.

Ever noticed how Nomme Kalju’s home form isn’t anywhere near as good as their away form? They’re toe-to-toe with Flora Tallinn quality-wise, in my view, which makes these two sides the best two in the country. However, Nomme Kalju can’t win often at home and it’s not due to buckling under pressure, either. It’s all to do with the surface of the Hiiu, which is very poor. Nomme Kalju can’t wait to move to their new stadium but for now, they’re stuck with this shitty surface. As if they needed a disadvantage before taking on reigning champions Flora Tallinn too! Flora won here 0-1 earlier in the season thanks to a late goal and I expect a similar low-scoring game here, although I’d really not enter the 1×2 market given how poor Flora Tallinn have been lately and how much depth Nomme Kalju have. Either way, under 2.5 goals at 6/5 looks worth a shot here.

Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 6/5.

AZ Alkmaar vs Vitesse Arnhem – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

The AFAS Stadion is where sides find out how good they truly are because no away game with AZ should ever be taken lightly. They’ve lost some important players pre-season, AZ Alkmaar, but they’re still very strong, especially on home turf. They attack well, create lots of chances, and score lots of goals here – that never changes. I think their signing of Altidore is absolutely ingenius as this boy has plenty of ability – he just needs a good run in the first-team, which he’ll hopefully get here.  Just look at AZ’s home form this season, though – they’ve drubbed PSV Eindhoven 3-1, romped home to a 4-0 win against NEC Nijmegen, and battered Aalesund FK 6-0. They’ve got plenty of ability and despite a rather youthful attack, this is one side not to underestimate on home turf.

Vitesse Arnhem are the latest moneybag team to emerge in the Netherlands. They’re popping up everywhere now and I can’t say I’m a fan, really. I like a lot of Vitesse’s talented youngsters and their boss van der Brom is very good indeed but Vitesse aren’t a superpower yet and Ajax’s demolition of them at the Amsterdam ArenA showed that very well indeed. They’ve got a lot of potential in their side and I’d never underestimate them in Arnhem but their away form in the Eredivisie over the past few years has been diabolical and that’s not changed this season, even failing to register a goal against a poor ADO Den Haag side. Pedersen and Wilfried are really talented attackers but Vitesse need some leadership and some depth before I fear them so I think they’ll get a bit of a footballing lesson today.

For me, there’s value in the home win with a -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

Verdict: AZ Alkmaar to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 4/5.

Team news

Bulgarian A PFG:

Botev Vratsa – No news.
Montana – No news.
Litex Lovech – Sandrinho is absent. Jelencovic is a doubt. Joss and Tom return.
Cherno More Varna – Palominho is absent.
Kaliakra – Phillipov is absent. Bonev and Raychev are doubts.
Beroe – Dimitrov and Genchev are absent. Iliev offered to resign as manager last match but it was turned down by the board, who declared their faith in him.
Chernomorets Burgas – Bonev and Kishishev are absent.
Rakovski – No news.

Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:

Bohemians 1905 – Hartig has left.
Slovacko – Volesak, Fujerik, and Perutka are absent.
Mlada Boleslav – Neuwirth, Johana, and Bulut are absent. Taborsky left.
Slovan Liberec – No absentees.

English Premier League:

Arsenal – Vermaelen, Rosicky, and Andre Santos are absent. Park, Gibbs, Walcott, Mertesacker, Arteta, and Benayoun may feature.
Swansea City – Situ, Halliche, and Tate are absent. Bessone may debutise.
Everton – Gueye, Coleman, Baines, Drenthe, and Stracqualursi may feature.
Aston Villa – Bent is a doubt. Hutton and Jenas may feature.
Manchester City – Nasri and Hargreaves are doubts. Toure and Richards return.
Wigan Athletic – Alcaraz and Gouhouri are absent. Crusat, Maloney, and van Aanholt may debutise.
Stoke City – Wilson and Delap are doubts. Crouch, Palacios, and Jerome may debutise.
Liverpool – Johnson returns. Gerrard is absent. Bellamy may feature.
Sunderland – Gyan and O’Shea are absent. Bendtner may debutise.
Chelsea – Cech, Luiz, and Sturridge return. Meireles may debutise. Drogba is absent.
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Guedioura returns. Jarvis is a doubt.
Tottenham Hotspur – Gallas, Pienaar, and Sandro are absent. Parker and Adebayor will debutise.
Bolton Wanderers – Holden is absent. N’Gog, Kakuta, and Boyata may debutise.
Manchester United – Welbeck, Rafael da Silva, and Vidic are absent.

English Championship:

Barnsley – Lovre, Davies, Noble-Lazarus, Addison, and Vaz Te are absent.
Leicester City – Nugent and Ball are absent. Beckford may debutise.
Blackpool – Grandin is absent. Bogdanovic and Hurst may debutise.
Ipswich Town – Martin is absent. Sonko is a doubt. Smith, Ingimarsson, and Bowyer return.
Bristol City – Fontaine and McAllister are absent. Gerken is a doubt.
Brighton & Hove Albion – Buckley, Vincelot, and Mackail-Smith return. Hoskins is a doubt.
Burnley – Paterson, Duff, and Ings are absent. Bartley returns. Edgar is a doubt.
Middlesbrough – Thomson and McDonald return.
Cardiff City – No absentees.
Doncaster Rovers – Chambers, Woods, Lockwood, Sharp, and Mason are absent. O’Connor, Martis, and Stock return.
Coventry City – McSheffrey is a doubt. McDonald may debutise.
Derby County – Tyson is absent. Kilbane is a doubt.
Leeds United – White is absent. Paynter, Becchio, and Brown are doubts.
Crystal Palace – Clyne, Marrow, Iversen, and Dikgacoi are absent. Gardner and Pedroza may feature.
Peterborough United – Lewis and Zakuani return.
Hull City – McShane and Stewart are absent. Waghorn may debutise.
Reading – Gorkss, Mills, and Le Fondre may debutise.
Watford – McGinn is absent. Garner may debutise. Iwelumo returns.
Southampton – Chaplow and de Ridder are doubts.
Nottingham Forest – Anderson and Moussi return.
West Ham United – Brown and O’Neil are absent. Faye is a doubt. Demel, Diop, Bentley, Lansbury, and Baldock may debutise.
Portsmouth – Mullins is absent.

Estonian Meistriliiga:

Only news is that Mosnikov is absent for Flora Tallinn.

Finnish Ykkonen:

AC Oulu – No absentees.
FC Espoo – Luoto, Perera, and Seferi have left.
PS Kemi Kings – Louste is absent. Tenkula is a doubt.
KPV Kokkola – Tahvanainen, Shpak, and Khidasheli have left.
Jippo Joensuu – Korpela is absent.
HiFK Helsinki – Heinanen, Priha, J.Halme, and Pyhala are absent. M.Halme is a doubt.
Viikingit Helsinki – Sesay has left the club. Lehtinen returns.
PK-35 Helsinki – Arolinna, Halonen, Sorja, and Vuorela return. Seferi may debutise. Ikegwuonu has left the club. Kuritta is absent.

German Bundesliga:

Bv09 Borussia Dortmund – Koch, Gotze, Kehl, Owomoyela, Bakalorz, and Barrios are absent.
Hertha HSC Berlin – Neumann is absent.
VfB Stuttgart – Bauer, Bicakcic, Delpierre, Niedermeier, Audel, Bah, and Schieber are absent.
Hannover 96 – Miller, Andreasen, Carlitos, and Abdellaoui are absent.
Bayern Munich – Olic, Robben, and Breno are absent.
SC Freiburg – Salz, Butscher, and Rosenthal are absent.
Borussia Moenchengladbach – No absentees.
Kaiserslautern – Orban, Simunek, Nemec, and Kouemaha are absent.
Mainz 05 – Heller and Szalai are absent.
Hoffenheim – Jaissle, Salihovic, Vukcevic, Ibisevic, and Weis are absent.
Werder Bremen – Boenisch, Schmitz, Silvestre, Borowski, Avdic, and Ayik are absent.
Hamburger SV – Diekmaier, Stepanek, Arslan, Sala, Ilicevic, and Son are absent.

Hungarian Soproni Liga:

Kaposvari Rakoczi – Okuka is absent. Bank returns.
Gyori ETO FC – Simon and Dudas are absent.
Fehervar – Sanchez is absent.
Szombathelyi Haladas – Sluka, Korolovszky, Kenesei, and Guzmics are absent.
Lombard Papa – No absentees.
Budapest Honved – Akassou is absent. Boss Supka is banned from the touchline.
Kecskemeti TE – Lencse may debutise.
Vasas Budapest – Mileusnic and Polenyi are absent.
Ujpest – Lazar is absent. Takacs is a doubt. Boor has left.
Pecsi MFC – No absentees.

Italian Serie A:

Cesena – Martinho, Rennella, and Rodriguez are abent. Martinez and Antonioli are doubts.
SSC Napoli – Britos and Gargano are absent. Donadel is a doubt.

Dutch Eredivisie:

Roda JC Kerkrade – Donald and Svard are absent.
Twente Enschede – Vujicevic, Kuiper, and Chadli are absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Didulica is absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Room, Snijders, van Diermen, Pedersen, Piiroja, and Ibarra are absent.
De Graafschap – No absentees.
NEC Nijmegen – Stadhoulders, Ibrahim, Goossens, and Wellenburg are absent.
ADO Den Haag – N’Toko and Visser are absent.
RKC Waalwijk – Schet is absent.
Heracles Almelo – Maertens is absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Ozbiliz, Silva, Enoh, Aissati, and El Hamdaoui are absent.

Norwegian Eliteserien:

Stromsgodset – Hanssen, Stubhaug, and Lundebakken are absent.
Viking Stavanger – Ingelsten, Sokolowski, Danielsen, and Saeternes are absent.

Romanian Liga:

Rapid Bucharest – Teixeira is absent. Rui Duarte and Roman are doubts.
FC Brasov – Di Stefano is absent. Machado and Chipciu are doubts.
Gaz Metan Medias – Munteanu, Raul del Campo, Patrascu, Dudita, Trtovac, Markovic, and Breeveld are absent. Buchta and Khubutia have been sold, and Eric de Oliveira has finally left the club too. Bud and Medeiros may debutise.
Steaua Bucharest – Prepelita, Fl.Costea, Galamaz, and Emeghara are doubts. Nicolita has been sold.

Russian Premier League:

CSKA Moscow – Akinfeev, Honda, Schennikov, Vasin, and Necid are absent.
Dinamo Moscow – No absentees.
Lokomotiv Moscow – No absentees.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Bystrov and Semak are absent.
FK Krasnodar – No absentees.
Rubin Kazan’ – Eduardo is absent. The Eremenko brothers may feature and Haedo-Valdez may debutise.

Serbian Superliga:

Radnicki 1923 – No news.
Smederevo – No news.
Metalac GM – No absentees.
Javor Ivanjica – No absentees.
Novi Pazar – Sacked their manager.
Spartak Subotica – No absentees.
Sevojno – No absentees.
Vojvodina Novi Sad – No absentees.
Jagodina – No absentees.
Partizan Belgrade – No absentees.
Red Star Belgrade – No absentees.
BSK Borca – No absentees.

Slovakian Corgon Liga:

Tatran Presov – Kolbas and Piter-Bucko are absent.
DAC Dunajska Streda – Fodrek is absent. Manager is suspended from the pitchside too.
Trencin – No news.
Kosice – No news.
Slovan Bratislava – Taborsky, Hrosso, Ze Vitor, and Hartig may debutise. Hrdlicka has left.
Nitra – Ivancik, Mikus, Kral, and Rak are absent. Hrosso has left.
Spartak Trnava – Malcharek and Machovec have left.
Dukla Banska Bystrica – No absentees.
MSK Zilina – Deza may debutise. Lietava has left. Sulek, Piacek, and Mraz return. Strba and Zosak are doubts. Zlatkovic, Leitner, and Bello are absent.
Zlate Moravce – No absentees.

Slovenian Prva Liga:

Rudar Velenje – Crncic may debutise. Korum has been sold.
Gorica – No news.
Domzale – Hanzic, Zec, Topic, Zec, Kavcic, Apatic, Cimpric, Brezovacki, Grbic, Drevensek, Geric, Krcic, and Vuk are absent. Korum and Selak may debutise.
Nafta Lendava – Vinko and Zelko have been sold. Silva and Vranesevic may debutise.
Maribor – No absentees.
Celje – Popovic is absent.