TFT Issue 207!
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Featured game
Dinamo Moscow vs Amkar Perm’ – home win with -1.5 handicap at 10/11.
There’s a big, big quality gap here. Dinamo Moscow have suddenly turned up in the Russian Premier League from nowhere and have started blitzing sides in a very impressive fashion. Dinamo have long been one of the richest clubs in Russia but each year was always the same – spend a lot of money, idolise good individual displays, lose because of a poor team display. What’s caused this transformation? I don’t like to be unfair on the remainder of Dinamo Moscow but I’d have to point to the signing of Bosnia-Herzegovina playmaker Misimovic as the catalyst for the Dinamo Moscow that we see now. Let’s face it – an attacking duo of Kuranyi and Voronin is not concerning at the best of times as both are rather hit-and-miss. However, they’ve both scored a good number of goals this season and Misimovic has certainly played his part. Old Semshov has done well alongside him, too, bagging nine goals in eighteen games despite his advancing years. Winger Samedov has been a constant threat too, to be fair. Fernandez, Granat, Lomic, and Wilkshire as a back four work pretty well – there’s enough cohesion there to make sure that Dinamo don’t concede too many but not enough quality to make sure they keep clean sheets. However, this Dinamo side looks very strong as a unit and should be even stronger with the new signings of Shitov in defence and Nekhajchik on the wing, both Belarusians arriving from BATE Borisov recently. For me, Dinamo Moscow aren’t a bad bet to back to win the Premier League this season – I just don’t see any of the other heavyweights having anyone near enough consistency to match them, really.
Amkar Perm’ are going down – there’s no two ways of looking at it, really. They’re stubborn and still pretty well-organised at the back but they have zero threat in attack. The signing of Estonian winger Vassiljev has impressed me but they need a proper striker like Kushev who was here a few years ago – they were a dangerous side to face then. Amkar don’t play well outside of Perm’ as it is and although they’re still a tenacious outfit, you just know that a goal from the opposition will generally kill them off. Although Amkar are away from home today, I think it’s worth noting that this side has failed to score in four out of their last six home games, which is when they’re supposed to be at their most comfortable. It’s not good news for Amkar Perm’ as I just don’t see how they’ll get out of this with no money to allow them to do so.
For me, this is a nailed-on home win. I expect Dinamo to score at least twice in this game and subsequently, given Amkar’s inability in front of goal, the -1.5 handicap at 10/11 appeals to me today.
Verdict: Dinamo Moscow to beat the -1.5 handicap at 10/11.
Additional games
Athletic Club de Bilbao vs Real Betis Balompie – both sides to score at 4/5.
I don’t know what is going through Bielsa’s mind but he isn’t getting the Bilbao vibe at all. Bilbao have a great attacking threat in a number of different ways with lanky Llorente, scintillating Muniain, pacey Susaeta, and the measured calm of Martinez, just to name a few. Their defence is usually quite solid – or was under Caparros – but Bielsa is abandoning that strength and it’s hurting Bilbao so much. There’s no fixed defence and Bilbao’s formation remains a mystery to me with Bielsa seemingly refusing to name more than two recognised defenders per game. It verges on insanity to put De Marcos at left-back ahead of Koikili or Castillo and dropping Iraola from any game whilst being in charge of Bilbao is just crazy. Yeah, Bilbao may win this one but for me, there’s zero value in that option right now as they can concede a lot of goals against anyone and will whilst they continue to deploy this bizarre 3-5-2 formation. Betis, on the other hand, have been the epitome of composure so far this season, recording two 1-0 wins in a quiet, unassuming way as Pepe Mel sets about establishing Betis as a Primera Liga side once again. Stars – there are few in their team. Betis are quite an average outfit. However, there’s good team spirit now that ego-maniac Emana has moved on and they look galvanised as a unit. Their strongest area has to be attack with experienced Ruben Castro lining up alongside Paraguayan hitman Santa Cruz and for me, there are goals in that partnership. Iriney in midfield has experience and their defence has been around long enough to be solid. Betis won’t cause many shock waves this season but they will score goals and thus I don’t think they’ll go down. They look quite good at the moment and them getting a cheeky point at Bilbao would not surprise me today, sadly. Rather than enter the tricky 1×2 market, however, I’m opting for the much more reliable bet of backing both sides to score as Bilbao rarely fail to score at San Mames but cannot defend for shit right now so even the absence of Castro for Betis today doesn’t concern me much.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Galatasaray vs Samsunspor – away win with +1.5 handicap at 3/4.
A lot of people will jump on the home win here but I’m definitely not one of them. Indeed, I much prefer the away win here as there’s only one of these two teams playing like a team and that’s Samsunspor. Galatasaray were actually close to relegation last season and their displays would have merited it, too. I don’t know if it’s the fan pressure or the constant changing of managers but Galatasaray are very much a spent force. In the past few years, they’ve got by due to star players carrying them like Kewell, Neill, Elano etc. Last year we saw Romanian striker Stancu doing a good job, too. However, most of those players have gone now with Neill and Kewell both going back to Australia, Elano plying his trade with Santos in Brazil, and Stancu bafflingly having been allowed to leave on loan to newly-promoted Orluspor. They’ve also lost holding midfielder Cana and replaced him with fiery Felipe Melo from Juventus. The big problem for Galatasaray is the lack of finishers in their attack, though. Baros, Elmander, and Yildrim are all the same kind of striker – they all prefer to sit off a target man rather than be one themselves – and that will cause problems. There’s plenty of tenacity in those three but how many finesse? Little, in my view. Elmander only plays well under certain managers and that could pose a big problem for Galatasaray here too. In midfield, they lost their main creative outlet in winger Arda Turan, who has joined Atletico Madrid. They’ve at least brought lanky Spanish winger Riera in to do some damage and with Kazim-Richards in their team, they do have some dangerous widemen. However, they have little else, especially in midfield. Eboue and Melo are loose cannons at the best of times. The only signing at the back that I think is good for Galatasaray is veteran Czech centre-back Ujfalusi in what is a very weak defence. For me, this is one of Galatasaray’s worst sides in years and I don’t rate them one bit, even with their passionate fans behind them. Samsunspor may be new to the Super Lig but they’ve splashed the cash a lot both last season and pre-season, signing the likes of Dominguez, Andre Bahia, Valdomiro, Bance, Ehiosun, and Yildrim, just to name a few. There’s some good experience in this side, plenty of pace, and plenty of firepower. They have a lot to learn at the back but a 3-2 win against Genclerbirligi on the opening day of the season indicated what we can expect from them this year. For me, there’s a lot of value in giving Samsunspor a +1.5 goal head start here, although I must confess that laying Galatasaray and giving Samsunspor a win with draw no bet both appeal to me here too.
Verdict: Samsunspor to win with a +1.5 handicap at 3/4.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
Cherno More Varna – Palominho is a doubt.
Ludogorets – Jarabitsa is a doubt.
Slavia Sofia – Bozhov, Junior, and Phillipov are absent. Vasilev returns.
Lokomotiv Sofia – Galev and Savic are absent.
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
FC Honka Espoo – Schuller is a doubt.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Votinov, Koljonen, Anttilainen, Okkonen, Saxman, Kaipio, Kukka, Aho, and Hietanen are absent. Dujilo is a doubt.
Inter Turku – Parviainen, Asis, Osinachi, Lehtonen, and Nyman are absent. Aho is a doubt. Kallio returns.
HJK Helsinki – No absentees.
KuPS Kuopio – Nwakaeme, Ollo, and Oravainen are absent. Balogh, Holopainen, and Venelainen return.
VPS Vaasa – Tanska, Kokko, Koskela, Funicello, Saranpaa, and Koskimaa are absent. Heini is a doubt. Uimaniemi and Luokkala return.
RoPS Rovaniemi – Tabe, Turpeenniemi, and Saarinen are absent.
JJK Jyvaskyla – Kari and Okkonen are doubts.
Finnish Ykkonen:
FC Lahti – Miranda and Huuhka are absent.
Jippo Joensuu – No news.
Viikingit Helsinki – Gonzales and Honkaniemi are absent.
AC Oulu – No news.
Greek Super League:
Olympiakos Piraeus – Geste, Fetfatzidis, and Maniatis are absent.
Xanthi – No absentees.
AEK Athens – Kafes, Dellas, and Kosnstandopoulos are absent. Vargas is a doubt. No fans allowed for this game.
Ergotelis – Leal and Olise are absent.
Panionios – Riera is absent.
PAOK Salonika – Arias is absent.
PAS Giannina – Vaderson, Tzanis, and Fegrous are absent.
Asteras Tripolis – Juanito is absent.
Hungarian Soproni Liga:
Debreceni VSC – Simac and Rezes are absent.
Paksi SE – No news.
Gyori ETO FC – Simon, Dudas, and Pilibaitis are absent.
Ferencvaros – No news.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Doni, Pinto, and Minotti are absent. Denis and Cigarini are doubts.
Bologna – Cruz, Cherubin, Garics, Gimenez, and Rickler are absent.
Catania – Izco, Legrottaglie, and Llama are absent.
Cesena – Antonioli, Bernalouane, Martinho, and Rennella are absent.
Chievo Verona – Acerbi, Luciano, and Sardo are absent. Cruzado is a doubt.
Fiorentina – Gulan and Kroldrup are absent.
Genoa – Birsa, Merkel, Rossi, and Ze Eduardo are absent.
Juventus – De Ceglie and Iaquinta are absent.
Lazio – Cana, Mauri, and Radu are absent. Del Nero is a doubt.
Lecce – Carrozzieri, Strasser, and Olivera are absent. Pasquato and Oddo are doubts.
AC Milan – Ambrosini, Boateng, Flamini, Gattuso, Ibrahimovic, Inzaghi, Mexes, and Robinho are absent. Taiwo is a doubt.
SSC Napoli – Donadel and Britos are absent. Lavezzi is a doubt.
Palermo – Budan, Rubinho, Simon, and Di Matteo are absent.
Parma – Pereira is absent. Valdes, Palladino, Marques, and Gobbi are doubts.
Siena – Angella and Reginaldo are absent. Belmonte is a doubt.
Udinese – Coda, Ferronetti, and Floro Flores are absent.
Dutch Eredivisie:
PSV Eindhoven – Hutchinson and Wuytens are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – El Hamdaoui, Ozbiliz, Silva, Enoh, and Aissati are absent.
RKC Waalwijk – Schet is absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Didulica and Martens are absent.
Twente Enschede – Vujucevic, Kuijper, Chadli, and Boschker are absent.
ADO Den Haag – N’Toko, Kum, Visser, and Supuseta are absent.
FC Utrecht – Fernandez, Krul, Duplan, Demouge, Nijholt, Lensky, Wuytens, and de Kogel are absent.
Heracles Almelo – Maertens is absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Stabaek – Hedenstad returns.
Odd Grenland Skien – Andersson, Semb, and Johnsen are absent.
Tromso – Mbodji and Ciss return.
Strosmgodset – Stubhaug and Hanssen are absent.
Viking Stavanger – Ingelsten is absent. Sokolowski and Saeternes may return.
Sogndal – Flo is absent.
Aalesund FK – Rorvik, Herrera, and Skiri are absent. Morrison, Fuhre, and Jalasto may return.
Sarpsborg 08 – Roberts and Jusufi are absent. Ron may return.
Lillestrom – Eziodawe and Sundgot are absent. Essidiri and Solberg are doubtful.
Valerenga Oslo – Kone is absent. Fellah is a doubt.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Cracovia Krakow – Suart, Bartczak, and Suvorov are absent.
Slask Wroclaw – Elsner and Diaz are absent. Mila is a doubt.
Polonia Warsaw – Baszczynski and Bruno are absent.
Legia Warsaw – Kucharczyk, Hubnik, and Ohayon are absent.
Polish Liga 1:
Kolejarz Stroze – Paknys and Borovicanin (sold) are absent.
Arka Gdynia – Surdykowski, Sieber, Szromnik, Srzelecki, Rysiewski, Bulka, and Budzinski are absent. Jastrzebski may debutise.
Bogdanka Leczna – No news.
Wisla Plock – No news.
Flota Swinoujscie – No news.
Pogon Szczecin – No news.
Gornik Polkowice – No news.
Nieciecza – Mysona and Czerwinski are absent.
Ruch Radzionkow – No news.
Warta Poznan – No news.
Russian Premier League:
Rostov-na-Donu – Radic and Yankov are absent.
CSKA Moscow – Akinfeev, Honda, Schennikov, Vasin, Necid, Mamev, and Gonzalez are absent. Fixed away win.
Dinamo Moscow – No absentees.
Amkar Perm’ – Popov and Belorukov are absent.
Rubin Kazan’ – Carlos Eduardo and Nemov are absent.
Zenit St.Petersburg – Semak, Bystrov, Lombaerts, Hubocan, and Faizulin are absent.
Spartak Moscow – Zotov, Welliton, and Kombarov are absent.
Krylya Sovetov Samara – No absentees.
Terek Grozny – Utsiev is absent.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Yanbaev is absent.
Kuban’ Krasnodar – Kozlov is absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Dzsudszak and Lakhiyalov are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Rangers – Weir, Wallace, Ness, and Bartley are absent.
Celtic – Rogne, Izaguirre, and Cha Du-Ri are absent. Brown and Stokes are doubts.
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
DAC Dunajska Streda – Helisek and Stajer are absent.
Slovan Bratislava – Sebo, Halenar, Cikos, and Dosoudil are absent.
Slovenian Prva Liga:
Koper – Marceta, Brecevic, Struna, and Guberac are absent. Puckio, Palcic, and Blazic are doubts.
Maribor – Boss Milanic has hinted at squad rotation.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Ocio is a doubt.
Atletico Madrid – Costa is absent.
Espanyol – Mattioni and Albin are absent. Amat is a doubt.
Getafe – Ustari and Gavilan are absent.
Levante – Del Horno is absent. Farinos is a doubt.
Racing Santander – Torrejon, Munitis, Colsa, Diop, and Kennedy are absent.
Real Madrid – Albiol is absent. Ronaldo is a doubt.
Real Zaragoza – Oriol is absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Fabricio, Nelson, and Castro are absent.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid – No absentees.