TFT Issue 313!
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Featured game
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA Europa League game between Lokomotiv Moscow and Athletic Club de Bilbao.
This game is being played in Moscow, which is a long way below freezing right now in terms of temperature. That makes it very hard for Athletic to play here so advantage at least partially goes to Lokomotiv.
Loko have appointed Couceiro as manager. He was notorious for making Lithuania and FBK Kaunas respectively play some of the most attractive and exciting football that they’ve ever played with both of those teams making great strides in short spaces of time. Couceiro’s sides know how to score goals and that’s handy as Loko don’t possess the calibre of player that their more illustrious local rivals (e.g. CSKA, Spartak etc.) do. As a unit, Loko do well and they only play well at home. They will struggle massively on the road so I expect to see a strong display from them here.
Bilbao are a better side though, for my money. They play beautiful football under Bielsa so it’s no surprise that Barcelona are sniffing around the Argentinian boss. However, as talented as Bilbao are, they’re going to be absolutely fucked soon enough, if you pardon my French. This squad is very youthful and they’ve played so many games in a row in three-day spells that they’re going to suffer at some point. We saw it happen at Betis at weekend so why not again here? It’s a long way to Moscow from Bilbao and these temperatures are far from welcoming. Bilbao are good enough in attack to score at least a goal or two here but their defence is far from convincing at the best of times so they could and should concede here too.
All in all, I like over 2.5 goals here. The Europa League is never a place to stick huge amounts of money but this game really should produce goals if both sides do as I expect them to, especially with the hosts missing Da Costa at the back.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
Additional games
Club Nacional de Montevideo vs Libertad Asuncion – home win at 9/10.
One of the unwritten laws of Copa Libertadores football is to never go against Club Nacional at home. This side has one of the most outstanding home records of all the sides in South America. They’re arguably the biggest club in Uruguay and they’ve got the players to keep it that way too with ex-Internazionale legend Alvaro Recoba still strutting his stuff. Things changed at Club Naconal over the summer, as they always do. They saw hot prospect Garcia depart for Atletico Paranaense, which damaged the amount of goals they could score. Club Nacional responded by signing giant striker Boghossion back from his stint in Austria, which certainly gives them an option up front. They’ve also got another promising youngster making waves in Bueno although he’ll have to do even better to dislodge old Medina. There’s a lot of experience and ability in this team and on the back of their impressive display and even more impressive 1-2 win in Brazil against Vasco da Gama, I really fancy the hosts tonight. Paraguayan opponents are amongst the harder sides to break through as they’re generally good tactically. Unlike their fellow South Americans, Paraguayan sides tend to lack flair and outside of their domestic league, Libertad Asuncion are no exception to that rule. Still, they do bring experience into this game and I expect a tight encounter to say the least. I don’t think the two sides contrast sufficiently enough for there to be cards here but I think 9/10 is good enough to take Club Nacional to beat almost anyone in this competition at home and that’s the logic that I am applying here.
Verdict: Club Nacional de Montevideo to win at 9/10.
Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Penarol – lay Godoy Cruz de Mendoza at 9/10.
What to say about Godoy Cruz de Mendoza? They’re simply not that good anymore. They used to have a surprising attack element and some very underrated players. The vast majority of those players have moved on now leaving something of a shell in the camp of the Argentinians. They can still attack well and score the odd goal but the Copa Libertadores should be well out of their comfort zone today. Penarol are very experienced in this competition with a wealth of talent. They’re one of the biggest sides on the continent and they’ve got some of the biggest tempers to boot. As with all matches between Argentinian and Uruguayan opposition, we can expect plenty of cards here. Ultimately, Penarol should be more than capable of avoiding defeat against a side that they’re frankly better than, however. Therefore, my call is to lay the hosts at 9/10.
Verdict: Lay Godoy Cruz de Mendoza at 9/10.
Stoke City vs Valencia CF – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This one interests me a lot. Tiny pitch, vociferous fans, physical side – everything Valencia hate to deal with. They’re an accomplished side with plenty of experience but this is a very difficult away game to anything that they face in Spain. The closest they’ll get to this is the trip to Osasuna, in my view, but I still don’t see the visitors being able to handle Stoke here. Valencia have a far superior central midfield to their hosts and if allowed to knock it around then Stoke will suffer. However, when it comes to set pieces and opening games behind the defence, Valencia are in for a long night as Stoke are bigger and stronger than they are. Valencia are especially inept at the back and I can almost guarantee that Pulis will have told his players to punish them from set pieces and from their poor positional play. Valencia can be stopped by Stoke’s solid banks of four and Stoke may even win this one if they’re as strict as they usually are. For me, this game should be a clear under 2.5 goals game unless Stoke bottle it.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Wisla Krakow vs Standard de Liege – under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
This under is a little more risky than the above one but I still like it a lot. Moskal is in charge of Wisla nowadays and I personally class him as a more defensive manager than Maaskant. Reymonta is still a tough venue for an away side but Wisla don’t have the same attacking threat without their Dutch tactician in charge. They’ve got some cracking attacking players, not least Israel’s hot prospect Melikson. However, to give an indication of how much Wisla are relying upon him, new boss Moskal has been asking him to play as a striker in friendlies over the past few months and that’s not where he’s best. Wisla could cause a lot of problems here in the right formation but I’m not sure they’ll do that and I don’t think Moskal will push them to put the tie to bed here.
Standard have been very solid defensively in Belgium this season, albeit mostly at home. They’re a rather youthful side but they’ve got a good manager and very good organisation. They’re got one of the best young goalkeepers around in Bolat and this side is hard to penetrate for large periods of any game. They’re not short of attacking options with Tchite and Cyriac in their ranks but they never seem to get their counter-attacking game together when playing away from home, either within or outside of Belgium, so I am not convinced that they’ll cause a shock here.
The 1×2 market is a “no go” for me but under 2.5 goals appeals a lot between what should be two defensive sides. It’s also worth noting that Standard are very much match-fit whereas Wisla haven’t played a competitive match since 2011.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
Steaua Bucharest – Chiriches and Dananae may debutise. Bourceanu is absent. -10 degrees temperature.
Viktoria Plzen – Bystron is absent – 2 year ban. Game played in Plzen for the first time – previous games played in Europe were in Prague. Fillo, Tichacek, Danek, Sladky, and Jiracek have left. Neuwith, Prochazker, Wagner, and Berger may feature.
Schalke 04 – Farfan, Jones, and Raul are doubts.
Legia Warsaw – Rybus, Borysiuk, and Manu have left. Radovic is absent. Hubnik is a doubt.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – New manager – Sa Pinto. Jeffren, Rodriguez, Capel are absent.
Wisla Krakow – Boguski and Sobolewski are absent.
Standard de Liege – Belhocine is absent. Bolat and Bia are doubts.
Metalist Kharkiv – No absentees.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Gabilondo and Ander Herrera return.
Atletico Madrid – Tiago, Antonio Lopez, and Merida are absent.
Valencia CF – Jordi Alba is absent. Diego Alves is a doubt.
Lazio – Rocchi, Brocchi, Alfaro, Cana, Mauri, and Dias are absent.
Udinese – Coda, Isla, Badu, and Di Natale are absent.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Da Costa and Ivanov are absent. Obinna, Los’kov, and Ignatiev are doubts.
Hannover 96 – Lala, Ya Konan, Miller, and Schulz are absent.
Porto – Otamendi, Janko, Iturbe, and Sapunaru are absent. Kleber and Rolando return.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Ooijer, Boerrigter, Enoh, van der Wiel, Sigthorsson, and Janssen are absnet.
AZ Alkmaar – Johansson is absent.
PSV Eindhoven – Tamata, Pieters, Wijndalum, and Engelaar are absent.
Twente Enschede – Rendla, Landzaat, Tiendalli, and Verhoek are absent.
Trabzonspor – Zokora, Volkan Sen, and Vittek are absent.
Salzburg – Alan, Cristiano, and Chema Anton are absent.