TFT Issue 219!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The bin
Azerbaijan vs Austria – over 2.5 goals at 11/10.
I really liked this one as Azerbaijan attack at home and usually get a token goal whereas Austria usually push for a goal or two so the price seemed generous. Maybe it still is, to be honest, but Austria have left a lot of their main strikers at home and although they’ve still got some decent ones out there, I no longer have enough faith to endorse betting on over 2.5 goals here.
Featured game
Serbia vs Italy – away win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA European Championship Qualifier between Serbia and Italy. For me, this is an absolute steal of a price and I’ll tell you why.
I’ll generally go against Italy if they’re playing against pace due to their slow style. However, it must be said that they’ve improved over the last few months, even against pace, and I actually can bring myself to back them nowadays. They do have absentees today in attack with the likes of Pazzini and Gilardino missing out, which people are reading a lot into. I agree that they’re lacking a certain firepower for this game but they do have other quality players like Cassano. Italy don’t have to win, sure, but do you think they’ll go to Serbia to fuck around and lose? I doubt it. No, Italy play a certain way – they keep the ball and try to play a very professional and efficient game of football.
So why should that work against a Serbia side that need something? Because Italy are better at it, simply put. Serbia play a very similar style of football to Italy but with much less mobile players. I mean, look at their strikers ala Zigic and Pantelic. Good in the air and strong, yes, but quick or unpredictable? No. Italy’s defence can defend against that type of attacker all day long. So what about the midfield? Well, not only do Italy’s defence already know a lot about Krasic and Stankovic but neither are playing much for their respective clubs and nor is set piece specialist Tosic. Kuzmanovic is out, removing yet more pace from the Serbian attack. Lastly, consider that the experience of Stojkovic is missing in goal and the irreplaceable Vidic is absent at the back and we have a Serbia side that is not in good shape, in my view.
I’m much more confident about this game than I’d like to be between two shrewd and calculating sides but I just see tremendous value on Italy taking advantage of Serbia’s problems listed above, irrespective of the motivational factor – I just don’t see the Italians losing this one.
Verdict: Italy to win with draw no bet at 7/5.
Additional games
Czech Republic vs Spain – away win with -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
This one is absolutely glorious too, in my view!
Look, the Czechs are so badly overrated nowadays that it’s almost laughable. They used to have a really good side but that’s simply not the case anymore. How many of their players can be considered good quality if we assess it? Realistically? I could only list Cech, Rosicky, Plasil, Baros, and possibly Necid when he matures. This side does not score goals easily with injury-prone Baros being their only regular goal threat. Stajner is out today although he’s a crap striker at this level anyway. Importantly, Necid is out, removing the Czech options up front, and Rezek is out too. That leaves them with Baros, the “almost there” Pekhart, and “the in-form-but-not-really-good-enough-for-this-level” Lafata. Should that scare Spain? No, not really! Spain’s defence is a bit suspect but so what? Czech Republic’s attack is feeble. Additionally, holding midfielder Polak is out and worst of all is the suspension of Plasil, which basically means that it’s Rosicky versus Spain. Oh dear! Not good when the Czechs need something!
Spain don’t need anything here, it’s true. However, they’re a good few classes above the Czechs here, in my view, and that really should show by the end of the game. Del Bosque has already said that he intends to use his full squad over their next two games, which is fair enough. If you were him, though, would you use your better players against the Czechs away or Scotland at home next week? I think we all know the answer to that one and I think the clubs like Real Madrid and Barcelona with league games next weekend know the answer too!!
For me, Spain will at least win this game but the odds of the -1 Asian Handicap are far too good to overlook with the above in mind as I can only see the away win here.
Verdict: Spain to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 7/5.
Armenia vs Republic of Macedonia – lay Armenia at evens.
Controversy much!!! I’ve not seen anyone go against Armenia yet, which amuses me.
So. Why lay in-form Armenia when they’re hosting a Macedonia side without motivation? Simple – odds are wrong.
I’ve been a big advocate of Armenia for a good year or so now, as some of you will no doubt be aware. I rate them highly as they’re a very underrated attacking side by most people and we’ve made a lot of money from that standpoint. However, anyone who tells you that there’s value on Armenia winning this game at around 4/6 is a fucking moron. The only sides Armenia are value against for those odds are Andorra, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Malta, Lithuania, and possibly Latvia on a bad day. Why? Armenia are a counter-attacking side; when it comes to breaking down sides, they find it a little tough. Armenia are great underdogs but not great favourites as they’ve demonstrated with poor displays against the more solid sides like Russia, Georgia, and Lithuania. If they’re given the chance to counter-attack – like in their games against Slovakia – then they’ll run riot.
Now, let’s look at Macedonia. It has to be said that the Balkan side are under-strength here – they’re missing a lot of attacking power. Their best player Pandev is out and so are his replacements in Naumoski, Stojkov, and Maznov. Indeed, playmaker Tasevski is out too so any chance of a Macedonia goal would be somewhere between zero and minus one had they been playing a side that could defend, which Armenia helpfully can’t. Toshack has been making his side prepare quite a lot for this game, training regularly in Yerevan and practicing a counter-attacking 3-5-2 formation and resting a few players he plans to use like Trikovski. Macedonia are a hard side to beat if nothing else and although they’re not world-beaters, I still think they’ll give the hosts a harder game here than most people anticipate.
Lastly, Armenia miss three regular players – important defender Arakelyan and midfielders Mkrtchyan and Pachajyan. I like Armenia’s starting eleven but their depth is not great. In all honesty, I do want Armenia to win this – they’ve played really well in this group and they deserve their unprecedented shot at the big time. However, they’re way too short here and I hope that if you’re not taking this bet then I’ve at least discouraged you from taking Armenia to win this one. Armenia could and should win this game but at those odds whilst being a counter-attacking side? I don’t like it one bit so laying the hosts looks very interesting here.
Verdict: Lay Armenia at evens.
Ecuador vs Venezuela – under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
South American games going under 2.5 goals are quite hard to call, which is strange because not that many go over if you consider the samba style that most sides deploy. I think this one is going under 2.5 goals, though. Ecuador are getting worse every time I see them and really lack goals. Given that Caicedo, Salas, and Kaviedes are absent for this game, Ecuador’s attack is basically going to be Valencia on the flank and Benitez in the middle. Good players, but not impossible to defend against. I’d actually rate Venezuela’s chance of nicking a cheeky win here had they not a lot of absentees themselves. However, the absence of Arango in central midfield, not to mention Gonzalez, Lucena, and Rincon concerns me a lot for their productivity in this game. Additionally, they have to cope without impressive duo Rondon and Fedor up front which leaves good finisher Maldonado pretty much on his own. Venezuela would take a draw here and if Ecuador fail to convert their chances then that may be all they can get here. Either way, under 2.5 goals at 9/10 looks worth a punt here.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news
Germany – Ozil and Klose are doubts.
Italy – Pazzini, Balotelli, Thiago Motta, Quagliarella, Gilardino, and Pepe are absent.
Croatia – Srna and Rakitic are absent.
Moldova – Savinov, Boret, Copeliciuc, Erhan, Moraru, and Doros are absent.
Finland – Pasanen, A.Eremenko, and Hetemaj are absent.
Sweden – Berg and Rosenberg are absent.
Serbia – Vidic, Bisecavac, Stojkovic, Kacar, Jankovic, Lukovic, and Lazovic are absent.
Greece – Fetfatzidis, Ninis, Sifakis, Kafes, Lymperopoulos, and Georgiadis are absent.
Romania – Tatarusanu, Matei, Sapunaru, Galamaz, Chiriches, Radu, Chivu, Radoi, Lobont, D.Niculae, and M.Niculae are absent.
Armenia – Arakelyan, Mkrtchyan and Pachajyan are absent.
Republic of Macedonia – Pandev, Tasevski, Georgievski, Despotovski, Naumoski, Ristic, Maznov, and Stojkov are absent.
Slovakia – Vittek and Sestak are absent. Cech is a doubt.
Russia – Kerzhakov, Bystrov, and Akinfeev are absent. Zhirkov is a doubt.
Russia U21 – Schennikov is absent.
Czech Republic – Necid, Matejovsky, Plasil, and Rezek are absent.
Spain – Iniesta, Fabregas, and Negredo are absent.
Cyprus – Dobrasinovic are absent.
Cyprus U21 – Shielis and Demosthenous are absent.
Netherlands – Sneijder, Robben, Heitinga, Afellay, Stekelenburg, de Zeeuw, van Nistelrooy, and Babel are absent.
Poland – Piszczek, Szczesny, Obraniak, and Glowacki are absent.
Ecuador – Kaviedes, Salas, and Caicedo are absent.
Venezuela – Rosales, Vizcarrondo, Arango, Rincon, Gonzalez, Lucena, Rondon and Fedor are absent.
Peru – Vilchez is absent.
Paraguay – Villar, Torres, Caceres, and Barrios are absent.
Argentina – Tevez, Aguero, Zanetti, Cambiasso, Heinze, and G.Milito are absent.
Chile – Sanchez, Jimenez, and M.Gonzalez are absent.
Bosnia-Herzegovina – Salilhovic is absent.
Ukraine – Pyatov, Kucher, Shevchuk, and Kalinichenko are absent.
Bulgaria – Yankov, M.Petrov, Lazarov, Genkov, Angelov, Yanev, Milanov, Iliev, and Tunchev are absent.
Turkey – Sahin is absent.
Estonia – Rahn is absent. Vassiljev is a doubt.
Northern Ireland – Hughes is absent.
Wales – D.Collins, J.Collins, and Ledley are absent.
Republic of Ireland – Gibson and Kilbane are absent.
England – Ferdinand, G.Johnson, Carrick, Gerrard, J.Cole, Wright-Phillips, Defoe, and Crouch are absent.