TFT Issue 222!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
San Marino U21 vs Germany U21 – over 5 goals at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier between San Marino and Germany.
San Marino’s senior team is gradually improving but their U21 team are really struggling. When they face quality, they’re ripped apart, basically. They lost 7-0 in Germany against Germany U21 last month and in all honesty, it could have and should have been more.
Germany U21 boast arguably the most potent offensive line in Europe right now, in my view – purely from an U21 perspective, of course! They ripped Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 to shreds in their last game and have done so in all of their games in this qualifying campaign barring a predictably hard-fought game with Belarus U21 away from home, which ended 0-1. What I liked most about Germany U21 in their game with Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 was their enthusiasm and tenacity as they relied not only on their own ability but also their opponents making forced mistakes to win the game. Germany U21 have it all, really – leadership, potency, efficiency, organisation, and them not winning a game in this group would surprise me very much now that they’ve already won at Belarus U21, which was their hardest game.
Amusingly, Victor Chandler published these odds rather early and I can only see them dropping by kick-off. I’m going with over 5 goals at 5/6 because Germany U21 really should run riot here. They’re not a lazy side, which is quite key here as a lazy but talented side could win this game 0-2 or 0-3. No, I expect Germany U21 to go full throttle here and if they do, I expect them to slaughter San Marino U21. Therefore, my tip is over 5 goals at 5/6.
Verdict: Over 5 goals at 5/6.
Additional games
Finland U21 vs Sweden U21 – away win at 5/6.
Unders is also appealing here but I’ll go with the Swedish win because I like their U21 squad this time around. Finland U21 have lessened in quality in recent times and subsequently find it harder than normal to find the net. Their senior team boss Paatelainen took one look at Teemu Pukki, their brightest spark, and immediately took him to the senior team so he won’t be playing against Sweden U21. Additionally, Riski is suspended, which is yet another heavy attacking blow for the Finns. IFK Mariehamn playmaker Forsell is out, as is FC Honka Espoo regular Schuller, so Finland U21 do have quite a number of problems here. Dalla Valle and Lehtonen are decent prospects up front but there’s very little support from midfield and thus I don’t rate their chances here. Defensively, they’re actually pretty damn solid with the likes of Lahti in their back four. However, I don’t rate their attack and them scoring here would surprise me, to be honest.
Sweden U21 played a very entertaining game with Slovenia U21 last time out and should have won the game but a missed penalty cost them the win. Nonetheless, take nothing away from this very promising side that has goals all over the place. I mean, just look at their attack – Guidetti and Jonsson alone are handfuls but Elfsborg Boras-bound Claesson and Malmo’s Pekalski make this Sweden U21 extremely danagerous indeed, not to mention GAIS Goteborg hitman Celik, who is in the form of his life. The pace of Hult, the set pieces of Ajdarevic etc. makes this Sweden U21 so dangerous that even the -1 Asian Handicap is worth a cheeky punt, in my view. However, Sweden U21 can concede goals and this is a derby so I’ll refrain from tipping the Sweden -1 win.
Instead, I’m all over the away win at 5/6. Sweden U21 have a very accomplished attack and are playing well. Sweden U21 not winning this game would surprise me today.
Verdict: Sweden U21 to win at 5/6.
Norway U21 vs England U21 – lay England U21 at 6/5.
I was going to be all over the over 2.5 goals call at 9/10 here but I’ve found out some information that has forced me to drastically change direction here.
The first one was the location of this game. Ok, it’s in Norway, but I didn’t know it was at the Marienlyst Stadion in Drammen. That’s the home ground of Eliteserien side Stromsgodset and is notoriously hard to play at due to the artificial turf, which is something that England U21’s players just don’t encounter in England for obvious reasons. They’ve been training in Drammen to prepare for this game but to what avail I don’t know – it’s very difficult to play on this turf unless you’re used to it and England U21 simply aren’t.
The second reason is because they’ve actually lost Waghorn and Delfouneso from the squad, which makes their strikers very feeble indeed, in my view. I just don’t see a sufficient level of firepower in the England U21 attack to score a lot of goals here. Oxlade-Chamberlain was superb during the 0-3 win at Iceland U21 but this is a harder game as Norway U21 are simply a better side than Iceland U21 are at the moment. England U21 will find this game much harder, in my view, and I just don’t think they’ve brought enough to Norway to win this game.
Norway U21 are still gelling their new U21 players but they’re a decent side. Manchester United striker Joshua King knows what’s he up against tonight and Vitesse Arnhem hitman Marcus Pedersen is a real threat so Norway U21 do have attacking threat. Berget is already very experienced for his age, too – he can’t be overlooked here. Singh and Nortveit are good players and are very experienced at this level, too. Berisha is a terrific talent with plenty of promise for the future so I’d argue that Norway U21’s attack is more dangerous than England U21’s here, although time will tell whether that actually shows by the final whistle. My problem would be that Norway U21’s defence isn’t the most stable and may well concede here. However, they’re good enough to score goals against what is really a rather suspect England U21 backline and I do think that they’ll manage to at least draw this game.
Overs still appeals to me because of the offensive power of the hosts but laying England U21 at 6/5 looks even more inviting on a cold night in Norway on artificial turf so that’s my call here.
Verdict: Lay England U21 at 6/5.
Team news
Estonia U21 – No news.
Germany U21 – No news.
Sweden U21 – Jansson and Noring are absent.
Belgium U21 – Ojo is absent.
Scotland U21 – No news.
Finland U21 – Toivomaki, Forsell, Schuller, and Riski are absent. Abdulahi is a doubt.
England U21 – Delfouneso, Waghorn, and Kelly are absent.