TFT Issue 236!
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Featured game
JJK Jyvaskyla vs IFK Mariehamn – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the Veikkausliiga game in central Finland between JJK Jyvaskyla and islanders IFK Mariehamn.
JJK’s form has slipped a little of late although the absences of the likes of Virtanen and Gruborovics have hurt them, to be fair. This is a long Veikkausliiga season now that the Finnish FA have extended it betting at this stage of the competition is something to be cautious with.
Nonetheless, there’s two games remaining and they need to win both or they face the prospect of not playing European football next season, which would be a disaster after such a good campaign. They’ve already won nine out of fifteen at home this season and another win today should really be on the cards. There aren’t absentees for the hosts and their strong midfield should really ensure that JJK win this one with some ease.
Visitors IFK Mariehamn are in a prime position to make this very easy for their hosts, though, which is partially what inspires this bet. I like IFK Mariehamn but there are some players that they cannot do well without and most of them are absent today. Playmaker Forsell is missing – he’s the heartbeat of the team as far as creativity and set pieces go. Okodugha is absent, which forces IFK Mariehamn to play a narrower attacking game. Their best attacker Kangaskolkka is absent through injury too, which means IFK Mariehamn even scoring here is going to be something of an achievement. If that’s not enough, midfield regulars Strandvall and Vartto are doubts. These are big blows for IFK as it is but when you consider that between two and four of their regular four/five midfielders are absent for this game against a side that builds their success from a strong and potent midfield, you really have to fear for the ever-weak away side that is IFK Mariehamn.
The visitors have done well lately, to be fair to them, but with so many big players absent here, I just can’t see an away goal happening. For one of just a handful of instances this season, IFK Mariehamn actually have a fully defence so it may take JJK a while to break through but with such a dominant midfield at their disposal, backing JJK to beat the -1 Asian Handicap should ultimately bear fruit or at the very least not lose.
Verdict: JJK Jyvaskyla to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
Additional games
FC Honka Espoo vs Jaro Pietarsaari – home win with -1.5 handicap at 10/11.
Unbeaten in twelve games, Honka’s run has come a little late but is still welcome as it could potentially secure them European football next season, especially with the two Turku clubs locking horns today.
You can read a lot into Honka’s form lately as to where they’re currently at. Basically, they’re a good attacking side but will concede goals against good sides. For example, they’ve won three out of their last six Veikkausliiga home games and have drawn the other three. They’ve beaten crap sides – MyPa Anjalankoski, RoPS Rovaniemi, and IFK Mariehamn respectively – by -1.5 goal or more. They’ve failed to beat JJK Jyvaskyla, HJK Helsinki, and TPS Turku respectively – good sides that can and did score against Honka. So you can see that Honka do have a ceiling for their ability but they’re still a very potent attacking threat with the likes of Savage, Dudu, and now Petrescu terrorising defences. With European football on the horizon, I can see a committed display from the black-and-yellows of Espoo.
Visitors Jaro Pietarsaari are a bit of an awkward side to bet for/against, though, to be honest! They’re not a great side – they’re particularly weak defensively and in the middle of midfield – but they’re a pain sometimes and I’ve no doubt at all that it’s down to inspirational boss Eremenko. Unfortunately, when opposing Jaro, we have the problem to face that they’re a very good attacking side. We’re fortunate here that Zeze was fired from the club for disciplinary reasons, leaving them with Niang and Siribadze in attack. The latter are good strikers themselves but one less option in attack for the opposition is always good in my eyes. Additionally, in-form powerhouse Siribadze is a big doubt for this game so whether he’ll play or not is another matter. Honka’s defence isn’t great but I’d rather tham face just Niang rather than his Georgian strike partner too. However, with nothing to play for and four losses from their past five games, I can’t see Jaro being too worked up about this game.
Therefore, giving Honka the -1.5 handicap here appeals to me. They need the win; Jaro don’t. Honka tend to do things in style and they have the firepower to do damage here so the -1.5 handicap looks appealing to me.
Verdict: FC Honka Espoo to beat the -1.5 handicap at 10/11.
RoPS Rovaniemi vs HJK Helsinki – away win to nil at 29/20.
These two sides are the polar opposites of the Veikkausliiga and the league table accurately reflects that. RoPS have struggled to score chances all season long and that’s not changed now. They’re officially going to be an Ykkonen side next season and the likes of Rivera must be casting an eye over potential moves to another club as he’s impressed this season. However, morale is low at the club – that cannot be denied – and performances haven’t been great for a long, long time now. They’re entertaining what is easily the best side in Finland right now too, which doesn’t help things. Ok, they’ve lost Bah, Rafinha, Pukki, and Ojala back in August but that’s not really relevant for a game like this. They’ve still got a solid backline and although their goals are drying up, they’ve got enough firepower in Sadik and Pelvas to win games like this. I just can’t see the scenario whereby RoPS score here, determined although they’ll undoubtedly be. They’re workers but nothing else whereas HJK are the Bentley in comparison to their hosts’ Robin Reliant! For me, HJK winning this game to nil at 29/20 having seen how solid their defence is at the moment is a steal here.
Verdict: HJK Helsinki to win to nil at 29/20.
Team news
Finnish Veikkausliiga:
JJK Jyvaskyla – No absentees.
IFK Mariehamn – Mikko Paatelainen, Markus Paatelainen, Kangaskolkka, Okodugha, and Forsell are absent. Strandvall and Vartto are doubts.
Haka Valkeakoski – Koljander, Mattila, Chavez, Ojala, and Popovits are absent. Dema and Perera are doubts. Kauppinen returns. Metzger may be suspended but nobody knows for sure!
KuPS Kuopio – Nwakaeme, Nykanen, and Nissinen are absent. Ollo returns.
FC Honka Espoo – No absentees.
Jaro Pietarsaari – Sirbiladze is a doubt.
MyPa Anjalankoski – Okkonen, Anttilainen, Votinov, and Kukka are absent.
VPS Vaasa – Kokko, Tanska, and Bjork are absent. Koskela, Inutile, Laaskonen, and Koskimaa are absent.
RoPS Rovaniemi – No news.
HJK Helsinki – No news.
Inter Turku – Parviainen, Osinachi, and Mantyla are absent. Kallio and Ojala return.
TPS Turku – Hurme and Rahmonen return.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Doni, Ferreira Pinto, and Manfredini are absent.
Bologna – Cruz and Diamanti are absent. Crespo is a doubt.
Cagliari – Astori, El-Kabir, and Eriksson are absent.
Catania – Alvarez, Biagianti, Capuano, Ledesma, Llama, and Suazo are absent. Potenza and Gomez are doubts.
Cesena – Colucci and Mutu are absent. Martinho, Martinez, Cica, and Comotto are doubts.
Chievo Verona – Sardo is absent. Luciano is a doubt.
Genoa – Kaladze and Ze Eduardo are absent. Birsa is a doubt.
Internazionale – Coutinho, Forlan, Poli, Samuel, and Viviano are absent. Ranocchia is a doubt.
Lazio – Dias, Hernanes, Mauri, and Gonzalez are absent. Matuzalem, Stankevicius, and Brocchi are doubts.
Lecce – Di Michele, Diamoutene, Ferrario, Julio Sergio are absent. Petrachi is a doubt.
AC Milan – Flamini, Gattuso, Pato, Thiago Silva, and Seedorf are absent. Amelia is a doubt.
SSC Napoli – Britos, Donadel, Gargano, and Pandev are absent.
Novara – Lisuzzo and Ujkani are absent. Pinardi, Ludi, and Jeda are doubts.
Parma – Floccari is absent. Giovinco, Biasi, and Biabiany are doubts.
AS Roma – Lobont, Pjanic, Rosi, Totti are absent. Cicinho and Pizarro are doubts.
Siena – Angella, Pegolo, and Rossettini are absent. Troianiello is a doubt.
Udinese – Coda and Barreto are absent. Di Natale, Isla, Pasquale, and Basta are doubts.