TFT Issue 24!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
The Bin
Just one that was omitted from the final draft today guys – Godoy Cruz de Mendoza vs Liga de Quito going over 2.5 goals at 21/20.
LDU are missing some important players for this game and are generally a very average side away from home due to their lack of altitude advantage. Given that this is Godoy’s first ever game in continental football, it thus made the over 2.5 goals option look intriguing. However, the departure of manager Asad in December coupled with Ramirez and Carranza being sold in Janaury doesn’t sit well with me. The hosts are a very busy team but I’m not sure there’s enough quality tonight to send this over 2.5 goals so I left it.
Featured game
IFK Mariehamn vs TPS Turku
Today’s featured game is the Finnish Liiga Cup game in south-west Finland between IFK Mariehamn and TPS Turku.
As some of you probably know by now, this tournament is generally a pre-Veikkausliiga tourament that is used to give sides competitive match practice and allow them to experiment simultaneously with no heads rolling if there are defeats but there are prizes available for those who win it i.e. a bye into the latter stages of the Suomen Cup so this tournament does finally mean something.
The vast majority of Liiga Cup games thus far have gone over 2.5 goals and I think this game will too. IFK are nothing on what they were last year and although a 4-0 win at home to Haka Valkeakoski flattered the hosts, the fact remains that they’re still scoring and conceding goals for fun, going over 2.5 goals in two out of their three games already. Indeed, the only time that they’ve not gone over 2.5 goals was on their trip to Turku to face a superior Inter Turku side who rarely let their opponents have the ball so a 1-0 defeat against them was somewhat expected.
If we look at IFK’s transfer activity over the summer, however, it’s easy to see why things aren’t as cut and dried as they used to be. They sold star midfielder Gruborovics to JJK Jyvaskyla and parted company with number one goalkeeper Ochieng, importants defender Gueye and Rikama, as well as important midfielder Simunac so their already thin squad has been stretched a lot. They have brought in some seasoned names like Tomi Lehtinen and Markus Paatelainen but they still look weak in defence and I expect them to concede here at least.
The other side of the coin is that TPS Turku have been pure cannon fodder this season due to losing the vast majority of their quality in the team over the transfer window with the Risku brothers both departing and Cleaver, Manninen, and Wusu all moving on too. They’ve brought a few players in i.e. ex-Manchester United youngster N’Galula but they’re a shadow of what they used to be, to be blunt. TPS have conceded easily in their Liiga Cup games thus far and although those games were against two of Finland’s best sides, it still doesn’t bode well for what used to be one of Finland’s best sides themselves.
Nonetheless, it’s not all doom and gloom for the visitors who still possess striker Aaritalo, who is one of the better Veikkausliiga strikers in my view. He looked strong against Belgium in their friendly against Finland lately, even scoring but unfairly having it ruled out despite the ball crossing the line by at least a yard. They also have experienced striker Jonatan Johansson, although how fit he actually is remains to be seen. TPS are going to have to field a lot of youngsters this season due to departed players so I do expect them to concede a lot of goals. However, they’ve got firepower in their team and with IFK struggling in defence, I expect them to join the party too.
For me, this game has over 2.5 goals all over it. 3/4 isn’t the best set of odds in the world but with the above in mind, I’d have put them far closer to 1/2 so I think there’s value in over 2.5 goals today in the island group!
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4.