TFT Issue 245!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Slovenia U21 vs Lithuania U21 – home win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
I find it hard to preview international games as there’s not an awful lot I can write about, really, but let’s see if I can explain my views properly!
Ok – the first thing to bear in mind is that we’re now in a new cycle of U21 players. Forget the U21 displays you saw pre-summer; all U21 sides have largely new players in them so some nations still have some rather unknown qualities and I think Slovenia is one of them. They’ve got some players who have really impressed me in the last couple of months. They’ve battered Malta U21 1-4, which might not look impressive on paper but that Maltese side doesn’t lie down and get battered nowadays. Since then, they’ve beaten a good Ukraine U21 side 2-0 and claimed a good 1-1 draw at a Sweden U21 side that I rate very highly. This Slovenia U21 side has plenty of firepower and I genuinely feel that they’re capable of being one of the “surprise packages” in the U21 world this time around.
Lithuania U21 – well, Lithuania hasn’t impressed me as a whole for a while now and I’ve not seen anything to change my mind recently. They were perhaps a shade unlucky to lose 0-1 against Sweden U21 initially but their 4-0 drubbing in the reverse fixture was well-earned. They’ve won 0-2 at Malta U21 since then but did ride their luck in the game. This side generally doesn’t do well on the road anyway, to be honest – their only two away wins as qualifiers have come against Malta U21 and San Marino U21 respectively over the past eight years. This Lithuania side lacks firepower and lacks talent and are there for the taking if Slovenia U21 approach this game correctly.
For me, this is a very good bet today. A lot of the favourites are rather short and surprises could be afoot but this one is priced rather generously, based on what I’ve seen thus far anyway. For me, taking Slovenia to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5 is well worth it here as there is a growing gulf between these two sides.
Verdict: Slovenia U21 to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Additional games
Austria U21 vs Bulgaria U21 – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
You know, it doesn’t matter how many cycles go by – Austria U21 impress me year after year. It’s a little puzzling, really, to be honest. I mean, if we look at South America then it’s easy to understand why Brazil U21 or Argentina U21 consistently produce good players – their clubs rely on it and the players get their shot in Europe; an escape from their rather difficult lives, so to speak. You can understand why the heavyweights in Europe like Germany U21, Spain U21, England U21 etc. do too – they’ve got big leagues supporting them so those sides having good players isn’t really a surprise. However, a handful of nations have managed to evade both stereotypes by producing talented players consistently without really having the necessity nor the large league to support such a stance and Austria is one of them.
Austria U21 play very good attacking football and I’ve yet to see a side have an easy ride against them. Ok, their defence isn’t as good as it could or should be but their attack should not be underestimated. This side gave Netherlands U21 an almighty game and were unlucky to lose 0-1, even missing a penalty during the game. Since then, they’ve gone to Scotland U21 and gave them a bloody good game, emerging with a 2-2 draw. Now they entertain Bulgaria U21, a side that they’re considerably better than, and I fancy them to show that on their own turf.
Bulgaria U21 are on a slippery slope downward and it’s no coincidence that this has come at a time when their senior team is struggling. The Bulgarian national team has a revolving door for managers and subsequently players are unhappy/refusing to play for their country which results in youngsters being drafted into the team which harms the balance and thus harms their U21 team. They play uninteresting football and have a complete lack of firepower despite the occasional show of tenacity. They’ve got some regulars out here too, including regular goalkeeper Iliev, essential midfielder Milanov, and regular defender Drenovichki. Bulgaria U21 have demonstrated lacklustre displays thus far in this competition and I can’t see it improving today, not with so many players out.
This bet does carry a risk in that Austria U21’s defence can concede at any given time. However, that’s why I’ve added the insurance of taking the -1 Asian Handicap instead of the -1.5 European Handicap. For me, Austria U21 winning this game should be a given, really. They’ve got much more going for them so the insurance side of this bet should be activated. Realistcally, Bulgaria U21 don’t have the firepower nor momentum to score here, hence my interest in a potent Austria U21 side beating the -1 Asian Handicap, but either way – I don’t see this bet losing at the very least and feel that is has a good chance of coming in with the above in mind.
Verdict: Austria U21 to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 9/10.
England U21 vs Iceland U21 – home win with -2.5 handicap at 6/5.
You may or may not recall that I was a big fan of the last Iceland U21 side and rightfully so – it’s arguably the best batch of youngsters that they’ve ever had with the likes of Sigurdsson and Finnbogason strutting their stuff. However, those days are behind them and they’ve had to welcome a new batch of youngsters now, a batch that is sadly lacking in quality and sees Iceland U21 slip right back down the charts again in my book. They’ve looked extremely vulnerable at the back in their few games thus far and lacking in front of goal, which makes them sitting ducks, in my view. It’s hard to take such a heavy handicap in U21 football, in all honesty, so I wouldn’t dream of there not being a risk in this bet. However, England U21 are one of the sides I mentioned earlier – a side that consistently produces good players. They’ve already won 0-3 at Iceland U21 through clinical finishing and even overcame a tough artificial turf problem in Drammen when they beat Norway U21 1-2 so it’s fair to take England U21 seriously once again. If the hosts show up for this game then a one-sided scoreline is to be expected, in my view. U21 football isn’t always the most reliable but for me, this one is well worth the bet as England U21 should be far, far too good for an inexperienced and frankly weak Iceland U21 side in this game, hence the -2.5 handicap.
Verdict: England U21 to beat the -2.5 handicap at 6/5.
Team news
UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifiers:
Bulgaria U21 – Iliev, Drenovichki, and Milanov are absent.
Belgium U21 – Kaminski and Benteke are absent.
Italy U21 – Borini and Insigne are absent.
Russia U21 – No absentees.
Romania U21 – Poor morale. Twelve players dropped due to lack of belief in qualification – Gugu, Tabara, Tiganasu, Florean, N.Stanciu, Selagea, Tucudean, Markus, I.Rada, Peteleu, Pleasca, and Gavrilas.
Slovenia U21 – Radan and Bolic are absent. Kampl is a doubt.
Estonia U21 – Meistriliiga has ended so players’ focus is on vacations. More interest in the historic appearance of their senior team rather than this game.
England U21 – Welbeck, Jones, Walker, Rodwell, Rose, Mattock, Lansbury, Wilshere, and Wickham are absent.