TFT Issue 248!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Spain U21 vs Switzerland U21 – both sides to score at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the UEFA European U21 Championship Qualifier between Spain and Switzerland.
In terms of how big the names are, Spain should breeze this one and the odds given by bookmakers support that approach. Indeed, I cannot say anything but that Spain boast the best U21 side in the world, for my money, and if they turn it on then they can destroy any U21 side – fact.
However, this game shouldn’t be as straightforward as the odds suggest. I appreciate what Spain can do but for this game I’m more interested as to what Spain will do. Spain U21’s attacking power is frightening, it’s true, and I’m sure they’ll give the Swiss a lot of headaches with innumerate attacking threats in Rodrigo, Muniain, Canales etc. However, let’s not forget that this Spain U21 side is still gelling, like most U21 sides at the moment for obvious reasons, and this shows in their defence. They’ve got a world-class goalkeeper in De Gea but their defence really struggles under pressure. Now, they’ve not encountered a side yet where that has been able to be exploited but if we go back to go their game at Croatia U21, for example, their defence was in tatters in the first-half and a better side would have scored against them.
So – can the Swiss take advantage of the uncertainties of the Spanish defence? My answer is “absolutely”. I genuinely didn’t think we’d see the Swiss even begin to emulate the heroics of their team that appeared at the finals in Denmark earlier this year but this side looks fantastic! They’ve got a whole arsenal of attacking threats themselves and they are not afraid to attack any side. They’ve smashed home ten goals in their past three games and are still yet to concede a goal in this campaign, interestingly enough. There are some very good players in this Swiss side in Xhaka, Zuber, Koch, and Ben Khalifa, just to name a few, so please don’t underestimate them here.
I won’t deny that Spain could and should win this game due to being a very good side but I think this game will be much harder than the odds reflect. Both sides play attractive attacking football and subsequently I expect to see a few goals in this game. Therefore, I’m opting to take both sides to score at a generous price of 5/6 as it should be the minimum requirement of this game, in my view.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 5/6.
Additional game
Egypt vs Brazil – under 2.5 goals at 11/10.
We saw Brazil coast to a 0-2 win at Gabon earlier this week in dry conditions, which was pretty much what we all expected, really. Gabon fought hard but have little to offer nowadays.
However, this is a much bigger test for Brazil, in my view. You see, there are two different football styles in Africa – you have the pacey and tenacious approach that the majority of the African nations use and then you’ve got the tactical approach of the North African nations such as Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt. All of those four nations tend to deploy a much more “European” game than their neighbours to the south and that makes this game much harder for Brazil as Egypt will be able to get men behind the ball and force a lot of Brazil’s inexperienced players into “earning their pay”, so to speak.
The bookies have been quite clever by putting Brazil on the left of their respective coupons as most people will blindly assume that Brazil are at home and thus odds of 1/3 are great. They’re not at home, however – this game is being played in Egypt so don’t be fooled.
Now – Brazil have some very good attacking players but a lot of them are not used to playing at this level and thus I think they’ll find it much harder here. Egypt are a good side (when they’re not busy having men sent off!) and have bags of experience in their side in the likes of Hassan (177 caps to date!), Moteab, Gomaa, and El-Hadary, for example. True enough, Egypt do miss some key attacking options with Zaki having withdrawn through injury and Aboutrika and Shawky not in the current squad so Egypt may find their own attacking options restricted, although pacey Zidan is always a threat. They’ve got the experience and composure to keep the ball well and make life hard for Brazil today, though, and that’s exactly what I expect from them.
From a 1×2 perspective, this game is a huge “no go” for me because Egypt being beaten at home is not a common thing. However, Brazil can be magnificent – we all know that – so be careful. Brazil have brought an experienced defence to Egypt for this game, though – it’s the only experienced part of their current squad – so Egypt’s attacking absentees will be missed here, no doubt. All in all, I think under 2.5 goals is priced generously at 11/10 with the above in mind and thus that’s my call today.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 11/10.