TFT Issue 249!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Germany vs Netherlands – home win at evens.
Today’s featured game is the International Friendly between Germany and Netherlands. These nations have hardly seen eye-to-eye over the years and we can expect plenty of meaty challenges in this game too as some things are never forgiven.
However, from a footballing perspective, I can only back Germany to win this one. They’ve got more options than the Dutch and it shows as the Germans can always find their way out of difficulty whereas the Dutch are becoming a bit “route one” with no backup. It cannot be ignored that Robben’s continued absence from the team is harming their creativity and penetration, however, something which damaged them a lot during their 0-0 draw with Switzerland last week. Van der Vaart and Sneijder are good players but they play a narrow game – if you pack a midfield then chances are good that you’ll keep them quiet most of the game which is precisely what Switzerland did. Van Persie may be in terrific form but he needs chances to score goals and if he’s not getting the service then both he and Huntelaar are innocent bystanders. We all know the Dutch defence is shaky; they often concede stupid goals, which was especially evident during their 3-2 defeat at Sweden over the past few months. The Dutch will never be a side to completely write off but they’re facing a Germany side that knows how to deal with pressure, that knows how to contain sides and most importantly of all, knows how to win games. I can’t say I envy the German strikers – they all seem a little predictable in Klose, Cacau, and lumbering Gomez, the latter of which continues to baffle me as to how he manages to score so many goals! However, their midfield is absolutely immense with Ozil, Muller, Khedira, and Gotze to call upon and that’s not even including Bastian Schweinsteiger, although he’s unfotunately out of the squad for this game. Lahm’s out too, although his contribution shouldn’t be missed too much in defence, only in attack, knowing his samba ways! Germany’s defence isn’t great either but they play as a much better unit than Netherlands, in my view, and importantly they welcome Neuer into the fold, who was unavailable for their recent trip to Ukraine.
Maybe it’s just me but as a squad, this Germany side looks leagues ahead of the Dutch. I expect plenty of passion and plenty of goals but the Germans not winning this game would surprise me a lot today.
Verdict: Germany to win at evens.
Additional games
Denmark vs Finland – home win with -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
I try to advocate the Finns as much as I can, mostly due to the bets I tend to make in the Veikkausliiga, but I find it very hard to do anything but bet against them at this level as they’re really rather susceptible. They have good players but they’re generally all in central midfield, which is beyond frustrating for them, I’m sure. They’ve got one good wideman – Hamalainen – and given that he’s played in the Superligaen before, he’s not exactly going to be a shock weapon here. No, Finland are likely to do what they always do here and play a packed midfield in a 4-5-1 and try to play the possession game which they are good at but it doesn’t go anywhere because their strikers are either not ready or aren’t match fit. Forssell is still probably the best striker that they’ve had over the past few years (note that I’m not really able to refer to Litmanen as a striker as he did play behind the frontman more often than not) but injury problems have kept him from a regular starting place anywhere, really. Teemu Pukki is a devstatingly good prospect but is he ready for this level? Not just yet, in my view – give him another twelve months with Schalke 04 and let’s see how he is then. Defensively, Finland rely too much on Pasanen – the rest are prone when it comes to pace and positioning so Finland can be sitting ducks, which is exactly what I expect here.
I don’t really rate Denmark greatly but credit where it’s due – they’re playing good football at the moment. It’s not a coincidence that this has happened at a time when Bendtner is getting more first-team football, too. I don’t rate the guy but as a target man he’s hard to face and he is scoring goals. The experience of Rommedahl is an invaluable asset to the team and the pace of Nicolai Jorgensen makes him a constant threat too. The passing ability of AFC Ajax Amsterdam playmaker Eriksen plays a big part in Denmark creating anything but all in all, the Danes are a threat and they are playing well enough for it to be visible, too. There’s bags of experience in this team and whilst they’re playing as well as they are, I have to fancy them to “go to town” on a predictable Finland side.
Verdict: Denmark to beat the -1.5 handicap at 11/10.
Republic of Macedonia U21 vs Denmark U21 – away win at 10/11.
I can’t really elaborate on this one other than to say that Denmark U21 are a better side than Republic of Macedonia U21 and it really should show here. Denmark U21 have looked good in the current campaign, keeping three consecutive clean sheets, whilst scoring seven goals along the way whereas Republic of Macedonia U21 have struggled to score goals in all of their games. Ultimately, I just believe there to be a gulf here, both in display and in the results on show so the away win at 10/11 is something we have to look at quite seriously here.
Verdict: Denmark U21 to win at 10/11.
Cyprus U21 vs Germany U21 – over 3.5 goals at 9/10.
Well, I didn’t expect Germany U21 to win 4-5 in Greece lately! The win wasn’t unexpected but the Greeks made them work very hard for it. However, that in itself allowed Germany U21 to demonstrate two of numerous reasons that I like to bet on them – they never stop working and they never stop believing. They’ve got great firepower and a good midfield behind them and although their defence could do with tightening up, they’re an exciting U21 side to watch and they simply attract goals at any given stage. Four out of their last six games have gone over 3.5 goals because of this all-out-attack approach that they’re using and this one should follow suit. Cyprus U21 are a pretty poor side in general but may be able to score a goal or two as they are the home side and the Germans aren’t Gods in defence. However, this game should have more than enough goals in for this bet to win so my call is to take over 3.5 goals here.
Verdict: Over 3.5 goals at 9/10.
Malta U21 vs Sweden U21 – away win with -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
I never take Malta U21 too lightly as they’re a bit of a tricky side at home but Sweden U21 look very strong this year with bags of ability. Guidetti and Celik are a nightmare to handle up front and with the likes of Hamad, Hult, and Pekalski supporting them, the Swedish attack looks very strong indeed. The only side that’s been able to trouble them in the tournament so far has been a very strong Slovenia U21 side with everyone else losing against Sweden U21. Indeed, only torrential rain spared the Finns from a heavier beating when the two sides met in Finland a while ago. It’s early days but with the promise of Elfsborg Boras-bound attacker Claesson coming through, this side could be as good as the side we saw rear Berg and Toivonen a few years ago. There’s more than enough ability and firepower in this Sweden U21 side to ensure that this game is won comfortably and for me, taking the -1.5 handicap at 4/5 is well worth it here.
Verdict: Sweden U21 to beat the -1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Montenegro – Jovanovic is absent. Basa returns.
Czech Republic – Hubschman is absent. Baros and Hubnik return.
Poland – Perquis and Peszko are absent. 8 changes expected from the side that faced Italy. Game in Poznan – notorious for a bad pitch.
Hungary – Nemeth and Korcsma are absent.
Sweden – Wernbloom will start ahead of Svensson.
Italy – No absentees.
Finland – Furuholm and Porokara are absent.
Bulgaria U21 – Kostadinov, Milanov, and Iliev are absent. Drenovichki returns.
Romania – Marica and Mutu are absent. Wholesale changes expected from the squad that faced Belgium as per boss Piturca.