TFT Issue 252!
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Featured game
Chelsea vs Liverpool – home win at 5/6.
Today’s featured game is the English Premier League game at Stamford Bridge between Chelsea and Liverpool.
Although somewhat weak of late, Chelsea are still a real force in this league. They know they have to keep winning, too, with both City and United having won yesterday. Chelsea have the firepower to win against almost anyone home and Liverpool are no exception. I mean, seriously – a lot of clubs would kill to have the likes of Torres, Drogba, and Anelka in their ranks, irrespective of their form. Chelsea are almost at full-strength here and they should be able to make it count as they so often do on their own turf.
Liverpool have issues ahead of this game with Luis Suarez a big doubt due to injury and Steven Gerrard definitely out. Liverpool have improved a lot pre-season by signing players to increase the quality of the squad rather than the quantity of the squad. However, you can see that there’s still plenty of work to be done with Liverpool squandering far too many good chances and conceding goals far too easily, too. They have relied a lot on Suarez as Carroll is struggling to find his feet and the Uruguayan hitman’s potential absence today would be a huge blow for Liverpool. Liverpool always seem to turn it on against Chelsea but with no Gerrard and potentially no Suarez, you do have to wonder where the goals will come from.
For me, Chelsea are still the better of these two sides and odds of 5/6 are more than good enough to be very interested here. The visitors will work hard and it may take some time to break them down but ultimately Chelsea should be able to do that and win what is really a rather important game.
Verdict: Chelsea to win at 5/6.
Additional games
Coritiba vs Santos – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Coritiba have been nothing but impressive since earning promotion from Serie B, setting Serie A alight with some outstanding attacking displays and earning a reputation of being very hard to play against both at home and away. The hosts play with great vigour and purpose and are one of the highest scoring sides in the division when it comes to playing at home. In fact, no, let’s be precise here – they are the top goalscoring side in Serie A at home as they average scoring over two goals per home game and only Flamengo have scored more than them in this division overall – that should give you an idea of just what to expect with Coritiba.
Visitors Santos are a very good side too, of course. I’d not dream of taking this bet usually but Santos have their eyes fixed on the World Club Championship for which they’re resting the likes of Neymar etc. Subsequently, Santos are likely to be fielding a “B” team here and having seen how well Coritiba have already fared against some teams’ “A” teams this season, you have to envision this being a long and ultimately disappointing night for Santos.
For me, taking the hosts with a -1 Asian Handicap looks appealing at evens.
Verdict: Coritiba to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Catania vs Chievo Verona – home win at evens.
Maybe I’m somehow biased but for me, Catania are a lot better than Chievo. They’ve got classy players, tenacious players, good finishers, and they work extremely well as a unit. Playing Catania in Sicily is one of the trips that I personally rate as being amongst the hardest to make as an away side in Serie A. You’ll simply never have an easy game against Catania and they’ve demonstrated that even moreso this season with their solid home record already forming, as per usual.
Chievo themselves can be a pain to play with their defensive play. Their counter-attacks can be very dangerous indeed, to be honest, but they tend to save their best to piss off the big sides. For instance, I’d rate their chances much higher here if they were facing Juventus, for example. Chievo are a very frustrating side in the sense that they love to take points off the big sides (and thus work harder against them) but rarely manage to emulate that effort against the “lesser” sides, which should leave them somewhat vulnerable here. The visitors are not great in front of goal either, which always helps!
For me, there’s value on Catania winning this one today. They play good football and should win this one 1-0 or 2-0 if they want it enough.
Verdict: Catania to win at evens.
Excelsior Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar – both sides to score at evens.
I like AZ Alkmaar a lot but the odds on them winning this game are hilarious. They’re not a good away side in general – ignore their statistics this season – and although they have the ability to change that, it’s still not an easy thing to do. AZ have some important players absent for this one too, which shouldn’t be overlooked, but what also shouldn’t be overlooked is that this game is being played on artficial turf, which is understandably always harder. AZ could and should win this game, especially given how atrocious Excelsior’s displays have been this season but AZ have a tendency to concede stupid goals away from home and I think that’ll be the case again today on a tough pitch. I’d avoid the 1×2 market unless you can find better odds on AZ winning but taking both sides to score in a game between two attacking sides looks appealing here.
Verdict: Both sides to score at evens.
Dinamo Moscow vs Kuban’ Kransodar – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
I can’t fathom these odds, to be honest. Ok, so Dinamo Moscow are missing Voronin for this game but they’ve got plenty of other talented players to use. They’ve been immense so far this season, especially at home, and I’ve not seen anything of late to convince me otherwise other than a couple of tricky games against good sides. They’re a ruthlessly efficient side that are hosting a side a good few classes below them and as much as I respect the excellent work of Kuban boss Petrescu, I can only see his side losing here. For me, taking Dinamo with a -1 Asian Handicap looks a bit of a steal at 11/10.
Verdict: DInamo Moscow to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at 11/10.
Sporting Gijon vs Getafe – home win at 6/5.
I’m taking a bit of a risk here as I’ve already mentioned my concerns for Gijon pre-season in that they miss a natural goalscorer. However, their play prior to the international break was not only encouraging but actually very good. Gijon are a very tenacious side, especially at home, and they tend to make life uncomfortable for any away side. They do play surprisingly good football but are just a shade short on the quality front from time to time. Nonetheless, they’re good enough at home to take three points in a game like this, in my view, with the proviso that they take their chances.
Visitors Getafe have some very good players in their team but they’re really struggling to gel as a unit. Getafe have long been poor travellers and I don’t see that improving ahead of today’s trip to Gijon. Despite having the midfielders to control the game, it’s likely that Getafe won’t do much in the final third and that they’ll concede at least one stupid goal here, which is basically what they’ve been doing for most of this season and I’ve not seen anything from them to make me think they’ll do otherwise today.
So, yeah – this is a tough away game for under-achieving Getafe and I just don’t think that they’ve got enough momentum nor confidence to win against a rampant and tenacious Gijon side. For me, there’s value on the home win at 6/5.
Verdict: Sporting Gijon to win at 6/5.
Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze – over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
This is a bit of a calculated risk but I do like it a lot, I have to say.
Ok – Wisla were very stupid recently and sacked boss Maaskant following their derby defeat against Cracovia. Why – no idea, really, as Maaskant has been their best manager for some years. The result is that the Wisla players are feeling rather disheartened and disjointed. Ex-Wisla legend Moskal has been appointed as his temporary replacement but the problem that faces Moskal is the absence of both Wilk and Sobolewski as they’re the leaders of the team. I can’t help but feel that we’ll see a backlash from Wisla’s players for the sacking of Maaskant but I’m not sure in what format, if that makes sense! They could either capitulate and concede stupid goals a-plenty or they could go on a rampage and batter their opponents with the firepower that is now available to them again. Interestingly enough, the lack of leaders on the field could aid this bet significantly as it’s hard to organise a side without a captain, especially with your manager having just been sacked, so I do think that we’ll see goals here. Gornik Zabrze aren’t a great side but they’re good enough on counter-attacks to upset Wisla here. The visitors may well nick a goal or two but they’ll feel confident. After all, Reymonta is rumoured to be having “quiet periods” in a protest against the sacking of Maaskant and we also have a Wisla side that is far from happy right now so a surprise win for Gornik may not be as far away as the odds suggest. Nonetheless, my call here is for this game to go over 2.5 goals. Wisla have plenty of firepower but no leaders and no focus today whereas the visitors have plenty of focus and decent players. For me, over 2.5 goals is priced quite generously at 6/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 6/5.
Team news
Bulgarian A PFG:
Minior Pernik – Tom is a doubt.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Lukic is absent. De Carvalho is a doubt.
Lokomotiv Sofia – Bad morale due to unpaid wages. Chance that they’ll refuse to play.
Chernomorets Burgas – No absentees.
Litex Lovech – Jelenkovic, Bodurov, and Sandrinho are absent. Milanov and Tsvetanov are doubts.
CSKA Sofia – Moraes is absent. Karadzhov and Vidanov have left the club.
Cypriot Division 1:
Nea Salamis – Grimes and Pekaric are absent.
Enosis Neon Paralimni – No absentees.
Ethnikos Achnas – Elia is absent.
Omonia Nicosia – No absentees.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Hradec Kralove – No absentees.
Slavia Prague – Frejlach, Kaufman, Kores, Tusjak, and Simecek are absent.
Ceske Budejovice – Petran, Bakala, and Novak are absent. Javorek, Pecka, Rydel, and Riegel are doubts.
Viktoria Zizkov – Kalod and Lafrance are absent.
Banik Ostrava – Jankulovski, Marek, and Smejkal are absent.
Marila Pribram – Koukal is absent.
Italian Serie A:
Atalanta Bergamo – Bellini, Brighi, Doni, Masiello, Ferreira Pinto, and Cigarini are absent. Ardemagni and Caserta are doubts.
Bologna – Cruz and Loria are absent. Kone is a doubt.
Catania – Izco, Lanzafame, and Suazo are absent. Llama is a doubt.
Cesena – Martinez and Ghezzal are absent. Martinho, Colucci, Candreva, and Djokovic are doubts.
Chievo Verona – Cruzado, Morero, and Sardo are absent.
Genoa – Kaladze and Ze Eduardo are absent. Dainelli is a doubt.
Juventus – Manninger is absent. Barzagli, Del Piero, and Iaquinta are doubts.
Lecce – Muriel, Mesbah, Giacomazzi, Di Michele, Diamoutene, and Ferrario are absent. Carrozzieri and Giandonato are doubts.
Novara – Morimoto, Lisuzzo, Paci, Porcari, and Ujkani are absent. Ludi is a doubt.
Palermo – Hernandez is absent. Pinilla and Alvarez are doubts.
Parma – Floccari is absent. Modesto and Marques are doubts.
AS Roma – Borini, Burdisso, and Pizarro are absent. Greco is a doubt.
Siena – Calaio, Grossi, and Vergalossa are absent. Pesoli is a doubt.
Udinese – Barreto and Basta are absent. Coda, Ekstrand, Ferronetti, and Pasquale are doubts.
Dutch Eredivisie:
ADO Den Haag – N’Toko, Leeuwin, and Verhoek are absent.
FC Utrecht – Lensky, van der Maaral, and Demouge are absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – Snijders, van der Struijk, Jenner, van Diermen, van Ginkel, and Piiroja are absent.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Fernandez, Schenkeveld, Swerts, Leerdam, Ramsteijn are absent.
Groningen – Johansson, Suk, Kwakman, van de Laak, and Enevoldsen are absent.
VVV Venlo – Emenike, Gentenaar, and Leemans are absent.
Excelsior Rotterdam – Fileccia, Oost, Djellal, and Wattamaleo are absent.
AZ Alkmaar – Marcellis, Martens, Boymans, and Messouad are absent.
Norwegian Eliteserien:
Brann Bergen – Kalvernes is absent. Labukas is a doubt.
Lillestrom – Eziodawe, Sundgot, Gislason, and Sigurdarsson are absent.
Fredrikstad – Staw, Valencia, Mulac, Hussain, Kalifa, and Jabbie are absent.
Aalesund FK – Herrera, Skiri, Carlsen, and Skagestad are absent. Myklebust is a doubt.
Molde FK – Stensild and Gatt are absent. Rindaroy and Steen are doubts.
Sarspborg 08 – Jusufi, Eyde, and Ron are absent.
Odd Grenland Skien – Anersson is absent. Johnsen may return.
Sogndal – Rudolfsen, Elvis, and Roed are absent.
Stabaek – Berholtz is absent. Hammer is a doubt.
Haugesund – Bangura, Kristiansen, Steinsland, Savolainen, Johansson, and Soderlund are absent.
Stromsgodset – Madsen, Aunan, and Abu are absent.
Valerenga Oslo – Kone, Gunnarsson, Fellag, and Hostad are absent. Hagen may return.
Tromso – Koppinen is absent.
Rosenborg BK – Wangberg, Goa, and Jamtfall are absent.
Viking Stavanger – Ingelsten and Landu are absent.
Start Kristiansand – Madsen and Milicevic are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Widzew Lodz – Broz, Zigajevs, Madera, and Alves are absent.
Korona Kielce – Vukovic, Stano, and Kal are absent. Jovanovic and Kuzera return.
Wisla Krakow – Maaskant has been sacked and replaced by Moskal. Sobolewski and Wilk are absent.
Gornik Zabrze – Nowak and Bebenek are absent.
Polish Liga 1:
Nieciecza – Nowak, Biskup, Szczoczarz, Lipecki, and Mysona are absent.
Wisla Plock – Zagurskas and Chwastek are absent.
Warta Poznan – Klatt is absent.
Pogon Szczecin – Lewandowski and Matuszczyk are absent.
Piast Gliwice – Bzdega is absent. Derby game.
Polonia Bytom – Derby game.
Romanian Liga:
Vaslui – Papp, Annan, Canu, Gerlem, and Adailton are absent.
Pandurii Targu Jiu – Pleasca, Bacila, and Stromajer are absent.
Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt – Vitelaru is absent.
Steaua Bucharest – Matei, Gardos, D.Popa, Radut, Balan, Nikolici, and Tatu are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Dinamo Moscow – Voronin is absent.
Kuban’ Krasnodar – Lolo and Traore are absent.
Spartak Moscow – Kozlov, Carioca, and Rojo are absent.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Ivanov, Tarasov, Caicedo, Shishkin, and Burlak are absent.
Rostov-na-Donu – Radic, Yankov, Okoronkwo, and Salata are absent.
Tom’ Tomsk – Tigorev, Savin, and Ropotan are absent.
Slovakian Corgon Liga:
Zlate Moravce – Candrat and Oravik are absent. Babic and Pavelka are doubts.
Slovan Bratislava – Dobrotka, Had, Kladrubsky, Cikos, and Pauschek are absent.