TFT Issue 253!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Otelul Galati vs Basel – both sides to score at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is between Romanian newcomers Otelul Galati and Swiss giants Basel.
Otelul haven’t set the world alight with their displays but I’ve genuinely been very impressed with them. Considering the quality of their squad, the fact that they’ve not deserved to lose either game against Manchester United and that they ran both Basel and SL Benfica very close should give you a very clear indication that this side are not mugs. They’re weak in front of goal – anyone can see that – but their organisation is second-to-none and their cohesion is very, very strong. I have a lot more respect for Otelul now than I did pre-tournament – I simply never imagined that they’d bring their domestic form to such a high level but credit to them and to boss Munteanu. Otelul know they have no chance of progression but one thing that this side has a lot of is pride. They are playing for pride in this game and realistically speaking, it’s their last chance to get something from this competition that they can remember, even if it’s a point. I therefore expect them to really go at Basel and given the shaky Swiss defence, I think they’ll get it too, one way or another.
Now, Basel realistically should win this one but at 4/5, I’m just not interested. Basel have produced sporadic displays since Fink left as boss. They were nervy in their 2-3 win at Lausanne Sports but were excellent in Portugal in their 1-1 draw with SL Benfica although they did ride their luck in parts, admittedly. That’s two good displays on the road against two superior teams now so Basel would interest me to win this game at reasonable odds. However, 4/5 – there’s not many sides in this competition I’d take to win away from home at 4/5 at any stage and Basel are no exception. It’s a big game for them, though, so I can understand it. They’ve got two very experienced and able strikers in Streller and Frei and this side always looks capable of scoring goals – that’s all they’re good at. Basel not scoring is generally viewed by the betting world as one of the triggers for the end of the world and I’m not too dissimilar in my views either! They have a wealth of attacking options, which includes playmaker Shaqiri, and will most likely score in Romania.
The first game between these two was a fiery one and ended 2-1 to Basel. A similar scoreline would not surprise me although I won’t rule out the draw as this isn’t a very easy game. For me, taking both sides to score is the path to value at 4/5.
Verdict: Both sides to score at 4/5.
Additional game
Manchester United vs SL Benfica – under 2.5 goals at evens.
As a United fan, I like to think I know what’s coming with my team and my thoughts tonight are that this game will go under 2.5 goals and I’ll explain why.
United have been a bit boring in the past few weeks. Very boring, in fact, as much as it pains me to say it. We’re not an entertaining side right now – we’re just trying to give the defence confidence again to build up to our powerful mid-season surge toward the top of the tree and to be fair, it normally works. United’s entire focus right now is on defence, hence so many clean sheets of late. Not only are United not conceding but sides aren’t making many chances against them either, which helps.
Now, there is no more defensive side than United when they play in Europe – it’s how they approach all of their away games. United realistically haven’t deserved to win any of their Champions League games this season with horrendous displays against Otelul Galati, a boring game with SL Benfica in Portugal, and a bizarre but at least entertaining home game with Basel. United are not attacking with any conviction as they attempt to play the efficient game and again, credit must be given where it is due – it normally works. But for a piece of magic from Oscar Cardozo in Lisbon, United would have won 0-1. But for defensive capitulation against Basel, the scoreline would have ended 2-0. United’s games in this competition frequently go under 2.5 goals because they rarely concede and rarely attack and play flambuoyant football and that’s precisely what I expect tonight.
Benfica aren’t a stupid side; they know a draw here sees them through, realistically speaking. They’ve got good passers of the ball and are not easy to play against. The only time I’ve seen them look vulnerable is when their midfield doesn’t give their defence any protection because barring Luisao, this defence is actually pretty poor. One thing that Benfica do a great deal in this competition is squander chances, however – they’ve done it in most of the games they’ve played in in the Champions League this season and I expect more of the same tonight. They’ve got the players to cause problems but missing chances and facing a resolute United defence? I just don’t see it. Benfica would take a draw here and to be honest, it’s not out of the question.
For me, this game is going under 2.5 goals. I won’t deny that both sides have the offensive power to send this game into a spiralling 5-4 thriller and as a United fan and football enthusiast, I wouldn’t complain at seeing it – far from it. However, realistically speaking, this game should go under 2.5 goals and the odds are good enough to interest me, too. Oh – one more thing; it’s the Lisbon derby between SL Benfica and Sporting Clube de Lisboa at weekend. Just food for thought!
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at evens.
Team news
UEFA Champions League:
Otelul Galati – Costin is absent.
Internazionale – Sneijder, Maicon, Muntari, Forlan, and Viviano are absent. Lucio and Nagatomo are doubts.
SSC Napoli – Donadel is absent.
Manchester City – Hargreaves and Tevez are absent.
Manchester United – Cleverley, Owen, and Welbeck are absent. Evans, Rooney, and Rafael da Silva are doubts.
SL Benfica – Saviola is absent. Witsel, Javi Garcia, Matic, and Capdevilla are doubts.
Real Madrid – di Maria, Kaka, Marcelo, and Arbeloa are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Bulykin, Sigthorsson, De Jong, and Boilesen are absent. Janssen is a doubt.
CSKA Moscow – Tosic and Doumbia are absent.