TFT Issue 257!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Zenit St.Petersburg vs Lokomotiv Moscow – home win at 4/5.
Today’s featured game is the Russian Premier League game at Petrovsky between Zenit and Lokomotiv.
Zenit have struggled to find the net recently and the continued absence of Kerzhakov certainly explains that, at least partially, anyway. However, there’s also been a lack of support from midfield and now is the time to turn that around. They’re in pole position in the Russian Premier League and if they are to crash out of the group stages of the UEFA Champions League then they need to make sure that they’re in the next one. In Lazovic and Bukharov they have good strikers – not as good as Kerzhakov, admittedly, but still good enough to score, given the chance. Danny is an exceptional attacking midfielder, as we all know, and the likes of Denisov, Faizulin, and Ionov are all capable of creating something, not to mention Huszti. Zenit have the power to break down any side in Russia at home and although they’re not operating at 100% right now, I do think that they’ll do the business today.
Visitors Lokomotiv are poor travellers, simply put. I never bet on them away from home without some kind of cover and even then I’m a tad dubious. They’ve just lost yet another Moscow derby against Spartak and should really be counting their blessings that they’ve ended in the correct one of the two groups that the Russian Football Federation has introduced at the end of each Russian Premier League season because it’s not been a great campaign for them. Their big problem is scoring goals, really. Since Aliev moved on, they’ve lost that “match winner”, which hasn’t helped at all. Sychev, Obinna, Caicedo, Maicon – they’re all good in short bursts but few of them have consistency and far too often Loko are relying on old Los’kov to make something happen (at 37 years of age!) or Bosnia-Herzegovina midfielder Ibricic, who has settled in more since his move from Croatia but isn’t the best player in the world. Torbinskiy spends too much time on the sidelines and although Glushakov and Ignatyev have had good campaigns, neither are world-beaters. It’s just not enough for Lokomotiv to do something on the road. At home, it’s a different story – not many sides win against them at home at all – but away from home Lokomotiv are generally cannon fodder with their vulnerable defence.
For me, this is the ideal game for Zenit to bounce back. They’re very strong at home, they need the three points, and they have a superior squad to Lokomotiv. At 4/5, I’m very interested in the home win here.
Verdict: Zenit St.Petersburg to win at 4/5.
Additional games
Levante vs Sporting Gijon – lay Levante at 9/10.
Inexplicably, Levante are around 1.85 to win this game; why?!
Ok, they’ve had a good start to the season but are we seriously saying that Levante are about the level of Bilbao or Espanyol? No, of course not. They rode a wave of momentum for a while but let’s be realistic – they’re not a particularly good side. When playing at home, I respect them because no side has an easy game against them. However, away from home, I don’t tend to take them seriously despite their apparent ability to score goals this season. Levante love to play a counter-attacking game but on days like today they have to be the attacking side and that doesn’t suit their game at all. They’ve lost three consecutive games ahead of this one and have subsequently had the wind knocked out of their sails and I think that’s done them a substantial amount of damage.
Visitors Sporting Gijon aren’t a particularly good side either but they are in form. They’re unbeaten in five games, winning three times along the way, and they’ve played well in each of their games. Importantly, they’ve finally discovered how to score goals without Castro and given their incessant hounding of the opposition, that does actually make Sporting a more dangerous side than I would have previously given them credit for. Old hand Barral is dragging the club along with him and they need it, to be fair. However, confidence is high and the side is playing good football and I don’t see anywhere near as much of a quality gap as the bookies apparently do here, if there even is a quality gap.
Maybe Levante will bounce back here with three points but with odds of around 1.85, they’re only lay worthy in my eyes. Gijon are more than capable of getting something here and I certainly wouldn’t bet against it with the form that they’re in. For me, the value is on laying the hosts today.
Verdict: Lay Levante at 9/10.
Enosis Neon Paralimni vs APOEL Nicosia – home win with +1 Asian Handicap at evens.
I like this one more than I should, really, considering how good APOEL Nicosia are.
Ask any Cypriot footballer which is the hardest trip to make in the top flight and I’m sure you’d be surprised at how many say that the trip to Paralimni is up there. No side ever has an easy game here and APOEL especially know that. Indeed, APOEL have failed to win here in nine out of their last ten visits, which speaks volumes, really. Enosis are a good side and they battle very hard at home. They’re not prolific but they do enough to scare opponents usually. Considering that APOEL Nicosia have just come back from an exhausting trip to Russia, they aren’t particularly well-placed to do well at a ground that they’ve always struggled at. They’ll be buoyant at having progressed to the latter stages of the Champions League, it’s true, but those players are going to be tired. Additionally, Macedonian target man Trickovski is absent for them today, which doesn’t help matters.
APOEL are the better side, yes, but the odds on them winning this game are criminal. If – and I mean “if” – APOEL win this game then I cannot see it being by more than a single goal. Enosis are too compact to allow that to happen, in my view. I find it much more likely that Enosis will score at least a point off a rotated APOEL side, however, and thus giving them a +1 Asian Handicap at evens really, really appeals to me today.
Verdict: Enosis Neon Paralimni to win with a +1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Team news
Austrian Bundesliga:
Sturm Graz – Szabics, Gratzel, and Holzl are absent.
Admira Wacker – Sulimani, Palla, Mevoungou, and Windbichler are absent.
Belgian Eerste Klasse:
AA Gent – Boeckx, Lepoint, M’Sila, N’Diaye, and Rafinha are absent.
Racing Genk – Simaeys, Masueiro, Joneleit, Durwael, Hubert, and Grimi are absent.
Bulgarian A PFG:
Svetkavitsa – Magdi and Abdaelaati are absent.
Levski Sofia – Mladenov is absent.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Lucini is absent.
Litex Lovech – Jelenkovic, Bodurov, and Milanov are absent.
Rakovski – No news.
Botev Vratsa – No news.
Chernomorets Burgas – Krumov and Juju are absent. Tsonkov is a doubt. Kishishev returns.
Montana – No news.
Cypriot Division 1:
Ermis – Brooks, Baroun, Invincible, and Moustakis are absent.
Anagennisi Deryneia – Elia, Toffas, Pindonis, and Kotsonis are absent.
Alki – Panagi, Aspas, and Santa Maria are absent.
Ethnikos Achnas – Kasio, F.Kisi, and Babic are absent.
Enosis Neon Paralimni – No absentees.
APOEL Nicosia -Trichovski is absent.
Aris Limassol – Lombe and Covac are absent.
Apollon Limassol – Sikimic has left the team. Merkis is absent.
Czech Republic Gambrinus Liga:
Viktoria Zizkov – Kalod is absent. Lafrance is a doubt. New manager – Nadvornik.
Slovacko – Kuncl and Fujerik are absent.
Teplice – Matula is absent.
Bohemians 1905 – Nikl, Zizka, Cseh, and Kaufman are absent.
Mlada Boleslav – Janicek, Seda, Fabian, Neuwirth, Bulut, and Opiela are absent. Scuk is a doubt.
Ceske Budejovice – Riegel, Petran, Strasky, Otepka, and Ondrasek are absent. Novak is a doubt.
Marila Pribram – No absentees.
Viktoria Plzen – No absentees.
Sigma Olomouc – No absentees.
Hradec Kralove – Klapka and Lindr are absent.
Danish Superligaen:
Silkeborg – Illum is absent.
Nordsjaelland – Jensen and Thomsen are absent.
FC Copenhagen – N’Doye, Bolanos, and Absalonsen are absent. Bergvold and Larsson return.
HB Koge – Ostli is absent.
SonderjyskE – No news.
Lyngby – Krabbe and Bech are absent.
Aalborg BK – Bogelund, Andersen, and Dalsgaard are absent.
AGF Aarhus – Petersen, Poulsen, Howard, Graulund, and Devdariano are absent.
French Ligue 1:
Olympique Lyonnais – Pied and Gonalons are doubts. Mensah returns.
Olympique de Marseille – Fanni, Morel, and Gignac are absent.
Paris Saint-Germain – Tiene is a doubt.
Lorient – Aliadiere, Bourillon, and Pedretti are absent.
Auxerre – Cisse and Sanogo are absent. Jemaa returns.
OGC Nice – No absentees.
German Bundesliga:
Mainz 05 – Risse, Polanski, and Szalai are absent.
Bayern Munich – Breno, Tymoschuk, and Schweinsteiger are absent.
Werder Bremen – Avdic, Boenisch, Balogun, Silvestre, Sokratis, and Borowski are absent.
Hamburger SV – Arslan, Castelen, Petric, Rajkovic, Sala, and Stepanek are absent.
Italian Serie A:
Bologna – Cruz, Perez, and Mudingayi are absent. Ramirez, Loria, and Krhin are doubts.
Cagliari – Astori, El-Kabir, Nene, and Eriksson are absent. Biondini is a doubt.
Cesena – Colucci, Ghezzal, Lauro, Martinez, and Meza are absent. Candreva is a doubt.
Chievo Verona – Andreolli and Morero are absent. Sardo and Cruzado are doubts.
Fiorentina – Cassani and Kroldrup are absent. Jovetic and Kharja are doubts.
Genoa – Antonelli is absent. Bovo and Ze Eduardo are doubts.
Internazionale – Forlan, Maicon, Muntari, and Sneijder are absent. Lucio and Viviano are doubts.
AC Milan – Cassano, Flamini, Gattuso, and Nesta are absent. Abbiati is a doubt.
Palermo – Balzaretti and Hernandez are absent.
Siena – Grossi and Vergassola are absent.
Dutch Eredivisie:
Excelsior Rotterdam – Wattamaleo, Djellal, and Eekman are absent.
ADO Den Haag – N’Toko, Horvath, Immers, Leeuwin, and W.Verhoek are absent.
RKC Waalwijk – No absentees.
Feyenoord Rotterdam – Schenkeveld, Swerts, Fernandez, de Vrij, and Ramsteijn are absent.
NEC Nijmegen – Nuytinck, Wellenburg, and Amieux are absent.
AFC Ajax Amsterdam – Silva, Boerrigter, Bulykin, Sigthorsson, El Hamdaoui, Boilesen, and de Jong are absent. Big internal conflict at the club.
Twente Enschede – Rendla, Janko, Kuiper, and Boschker are absent.
Vitesse Arnhem – van der Stuyck, Snijders, Drost, Jenner, van Diermen, van Ginkel, Piiroja, and Kalas are absent.
Polish Ekstraklasa:
Cracovia Krakow – Nykiel, Suart, van der Biezen, and Puzigaca are absent. Radomski is a doubt. Ntibazonkiza is also absent – big loss.
GKS Belchatow – No news.
Lech Poznan – No absentees.
Widzew Lodz – Madera, Alves, and Zigajevs are absent. Pinheiro and Okachi return.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Gil Vicente – Sciola and Vilela are absent. Cunha returns.
Uniao de Leiria – Robinho, Leo, Ogu, Brigido, Airosa, and Alcantara are absent.
Feirense – Rabiola is absent.
Rio Ave – Vilas Boas, Gomes, and Dinei are absent.
Porto – Sapunaru, Guarin, Sandro, Mangala, Walter, and Iturbe are absent.
Sporting Braga – Only four defenders and five midfielders available for this game. Braga have not disclosed the full list of absentees, however.
Pacos de Ferreira – Josue, William, and Santos are absent.
Olhanense – Piloto, Ismaily, Filipe, Jander, Ivanildo, Dady, and Alexandre are absent.
Romanian Liga:
Vointa Sibiu – Tarc and Miclea are absent.
CFR Cluj – Maftei, Sare, and Sougou are absent. Kone has left. De Zerbi returns.
Universitatea Cluj – Cojocnean and Niculescu are absent.
Otelul Galati – No absentees.
Mioveni – Gheorghe and Tanasa are absent.
Dinamo Bucharest – Moti, Stoica, Bakaj, and Munteanu are absent.
Russian Premier League:
Zenit St.Petersburg – Kerzhakov is absent.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Burlak, Tarasov, Caicedo, and Los’kov are absent.
Anzhi Makhachkala – Bossouffa is absent.
CSKA Moscow – Akinfeev, Ignashevich, Tosic, Necid, Honda, and Gonzalez are absent.
Tom’ Tomsk – Tigorev, Ropotan, Stroev, Sabitov, and Nitkinskiy are absent.
FK Krasnodar – Kulchiy is absent.
Rostov-na-Donu – Radic, Yankov, and Gatskan are absent.
Amkar’ Perm – Fedorov and Topcu are absent.
Scottish Premier League:
Kilmarnock – Heffernan is a doubt.
Rangers – Weir, Naismith, and Wylde are absent. Papac and Wallace are doubts.
Spanish Primera Liga:
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Amorebieta, Ocio, Iturraspe, Ekiza, Gurpegi, I.Martinez, and Castillo are absent.
Real Betis Balompie – Momo, Nelson, Marilo, and Vadillo are absent.
Espanyol – Lopez, Forlin, Marquez, Mattoni, and Albin are absent.
Sporting Gijon – Bilic is absent.
Granada – Pamarot, Lucena, Mainz, and Rico are absent.
Levante – Juanlu and Del Horno are absent.
Osasuna – Roversio, Bertran, Sergio, Echaide, Raitala, Shojaei, and Satrustegui are absent.
Racing Santander – Semperio, Bedia, Acosta, Bakircioglu, and Nahuelpan are absent.
Real Sociedad – Martinez, Bergara, and de la Bella are absent.
Sevilla CF – Medel is absent.
Real Zaragoza – de Silva, Franco, and Brauliio are absent.