TFT Issue 266!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
Featured game
Kashiwa Reysol vs Santos – over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Today’s featured game is the FIFA World Club Cup game in Japan between Kashiwa Reysol and Brazilian giants Santos.
Kashiwa Reysol have really been thrown into this tournament at the deep end with their domestic campaign having only just ended. They’re not one of the atypical sides to be near the top of the J-League. Indeed, this was their first time back in the J-League and they won it so kudos to them! That speaks volumes about their cohesion, to be honest – I’ve seldom seen a side work so hard to get the ball back. They’ve got a couple of stars, the most notorious of which is unquestionably Leandro Domingues, although ex-Lokomotiv Moscow attacker Jorge Wagner is somewhat instrumental to their play too. Like I said, though – Kashiwa earn respect from their opponents by working hard, chasing every ball, and playing with great belief. Quality-wise, this side is not great, to be honest – they appear to have no concept of the offside trap and they will get caught out by some quick passing here if Santos show them how it’s done. They’ve got firepower though and you have to give them their due respect, especially as they’re playing in Japan!
Santos should probably win this one but will they? I don’t know. Santos can’t defend for shit and they’ll get caught out here at somepoint, I’m sure. They’re facing a side that played just three days ago, however, and that does give them the edge although I see no value in the 1×2 odds. However, one thing Santos can do is attack well and score goals so they need to be taken seriously here. Starlet Neymar is attracting interest from all over the world and why not? He’s an outstanding player. Santos boast a wealth of attacking talent with Ganso and Elano in midfield, not to mention emerging Felipe Anderson. Santos can score goals for fun against most sides but defensively, this side has never convinced me and I doubt I’ll be convinced today either.
I suppose you could make a case for Santos winning this one given that they rested their players for weeks ahead of this tournament but again, I cannot take them seriously whilst they possess such a leaky defence and whilst their players are talking about meeting Barcelona in the next round. You’ve got to win the game first, guys!
For me, this game really should be a nailed-on over 2.5 goals. Kashiwa Reysol have very little experience outside of Japan for obvious reasons and that showed against Monterrey in the previous round. They’re not afraid of anyone and I do expect them to score here but with schoolboy defending rife in their team, I also fancy them to concede a few here too. Santos are more than capable of scoring goals for fun in this one too so my call is over 2.5 goals at a generous price of 10/11.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11.
Additional games
Paris Saint-Germain vs Athletic Club de Bilbao – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Nothing but a win will do here for PSG and even then it might not be enough for them. The odds are against them with Salzburg heavy favourites to win at a depleted Slovan Bratislava side but they must beat group leaders Athletic to have any chance whatsoever and I for one will be surprised if they don’t manage it.
PSG are not 100% yet with their cohesion but their quality of player is superb, as I’m sure you’d all agree. Despite his public complaints, playmaker Javier Pastore can decide any game that this PSG side plays in and with Nene alongside him in midfield, in-form Gameiro up front, and the returning Hoarau eager to get back in action, PSG definitely have the firepower to do well here. The absence of Menez is a blow, of course, but they’ve still got very talented attacking players and I expect a much more composed display at the back tonight now that Lugano is back – unlike their game with Auxerre where he was absent!
Visitors Athletic Bilbao are a side that I like a lot and follow avidly but I don’t rate their chances here at all and I’ll explain why.
1. Bilbao have a very youthful nucleus to this team so they can’t have heavy fixture schedules. This is their third game in six days – they don’t have the legs for this!
2. Bilbao field their strongest team in every competition, which furthers my first point.
3. Bilbao have already progressed to the latter stages of the competition so motivation may not be there as much as normal.
4. This is the big one – there’s no Llorente. Now, I took Bilbao quite heavily to beat Santander at weekend despite knowing that Llorente was out because Santander are crap and I expected Bilbao to do the damage. They dominated the game from start to finish but failed to convert their chances because of wasteful play in the final third. The key point is that Toquero, for all his hard-work, is nowhere near the player that Llorente is and Bilbao do not have a target man without the lanky Spain international playing. Guillermo Fernandez is a fantastic prodigy but he’s barely played for Bilbao this season – he’s not ready for this stage! Muniain is a creative player – his finishing is nowhere near as good as the other parts of his game.
So where will the goals come from? Bilbao’s football lately has been superb but without finishing, what’s the point? It cost them at weekend, as did their lack of composure as giving away stupid free-kicks in the dying minutes of the game eventually led to them conceding in one of the few ways that Santander can actually score. Who will Bielsa play here? Will he risk Herrera picking up another knock? I wouldn’t, if I were him. Iturraspe has to play again in front of the back four with Gurpegi still out so he’ll be tired despite impressive displays. Bilbao are packed full of pace on the flanks but with the motivation and fatigue factors taken into consideration, I can’t see a positive result for them here.
Be sure to take the Asian Handicap here rather than the European Handicap – you never just know whether PSG will relinquish all interest in this competition part-way through the game or if their lack of cohesion will burn them. Hell, I can’t even discredit Bilbao springing a surprise here, despite the odds being well and truly stacked against them, because they do play some terrific football. However, for me, it’ll be a big surprise if PSG don’t win this one and they should win it well.
Verdict: Paris Saint-Germain to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Monterrey vs ES Tunis – Monterrey to win at 5/6.
Mexican sides outside of Mexico? I’m not a fan – they tend to mess around with the ball too much and not take their chances. However, Monterrey have experienced Chilean hitman Suazo to do the business and at this level, I’m content that he’ll do the business. Helpfully, lightning-fast Argentinian attacker Cesar Delgado will surely be there to support him, as is ex-Boca Juniors winger Neri Cardozo so Monterrey really are a potent attacking threat. They displayed that against Kashiwa Reysol in their opening game and were perhaps a shade unfortunate not to make it count. However, they got a bit cocky by letting their goalkeeper Orozco take a penalty in the penalty shootout and it cost them, although admittedly some of their other penalties weren’t of good enough quality either. Like I said at the start of the preview – Mexican sides + finishing outside of Mexico is a bad combination to rely upon but I like what Vucetich has at his disposal and I expect them to make it count here, especially with all the experience that they have in their ranks.
Helpfully, they’re facing an ES Tunis side that has no concept of how to defend. This side can’t play an offisde trap, can’t mark, aren’t well-placed positionally, and have an insane goalkeeper and them not conceding at least two goals here should be seen as the coming of the apocalypse, in my view! They’re not a particularly experienced side and from what I’ve seen of them, they pose little threat to the likes of Monterrey in any part of the field and I think that they’ll really struggle here. They lost to Al Sadd in their opening game with an average display overall and a horrendous defensive display and more of the same would not surprise me.
For me, Monterrey are well worth a bet at 5/6 – they should have too much firepower for their Tunisian opponents today.
Verdict: Monterrey to win at 5/6.
Team news
UEFA Europa League:
AEK Larnaca – Mrdakovic and Pavlou are absent.
Sporting Clube de Lisboa – Jeffren, Capel, Rinaudo, van Wolfswinkel, Arias, Elias, Ismailov, Joao Pereira, and Insua are absent.
Paris Saint-Germain – Menez is absent. Hoarau returns.
Athletic Club de Bilbao – Llorente, Gurpegi, I.Martinez, and Ocio are absent.
Anderlecht – Mbokani is a doubt. New pitch that will favour quick passing games.
Steaua Bucharest – G.Matei, Radut, and F.Costea are absent.
Vaslui – Canu, Balace, Annang, Wesley, Papp, and Temwanjera are absent.
Twente Enschede – Brama, Fer, Kuiper, Rosales, Douglas, Mihaylov, and Wisgerhof are absent.
Wisla Krakow – Lamey, Paljic, Chavez, and Jaliens are absent. Malecki and Melikson return.
Lokomotiv Moscow – Los’kov, Obinna, Ibricic, Shiskin, and Tarasov are absent.
Slovan Bratislava – Bagayoko, Milinkovic, and a whole host of players unavailable for Slovan, who have just fifteen players available to play.