TFT Issue 271!
FreeHowdy guys and girls!
There’s not much around today so you could be forgiven for being a little disappointed. However, I’m pleased with the offerings that Cyprus has for us today so I’ve previewed three of the four games in Cyprus today below.
Featured game
Alki vs Omonia Nicosia – away win with -1.5 handicap at evens.
Today’s featured game is the Cypriot Division 1 game between Alki Larnaca and Omonia Nicosia.
Now, you may recall a few days ago that I gave Ethnikos Achnas a +1 goal head start at Anorthosis Famagusta, which unfortunately lost. However, I’m going to have to apologise for that tip because something was made aware to me shortly before that game regarding those two sides that I wasn’t previously aware of and that’s the friendly terms that they’re on. Effectively, Anorthosis will have an easy game whenever they play Ethnikos Achnas, hence the tip losing.
So why is that relevant here? Well, we have another game just like that – Alki vs Omonia. Alki are pretty poor anyway, in all honesty, but they won’t put any effort whatsoever into this game. Important midfielder Dobrasinovic sits this one out for hosts Alki but it shouldn’t matter either way; Alki are effectively contracted to lose games like this nowadays.
You’ll no doubt be able to see that Omonia have beaten Alki for six consecutive meetings now and it’s no coincidence, either. Omonia are one of the top two sides in Cyprus anyway but there’s something deceptively flattering about those statistics and it’s because they’re usually fixed games for Omonia. Omonia have beaten the -1.5 handicap in five of their six wins against Alki and it’s going to take more than a recent burst of form from the hosts to persuade me not to back Omonia heavily.
If you want more actualities to support this bet then you can always take note that Alki still don’t play at their own ground (they share with Anorthosis Famagusta) and also have very few fans so they’re not a side that will generally upset the odds. Quality-wise, they’re amongst the weakest in the division and although Omonia enter this game on the back of a depressing derby defeat against APOEL Nicosia, I still fancy them to do the damage against their friends here.
I’d like this one without it being a “friendly”, to be honest, but I like it even more now that I’ve been told that it is a friendly! For me, Omonia -1.5 at evens is well worth a shot today.
Verdict: Omonia Nicosia to beat the -1.5 handicap at evens.
Additional games
Ermis vs Apollon Limassol – away win at 6/5.
I’m absolutely terrified as to why the odds on this selection are as generous as they are. Fixing games in Cyprus is not uncommon nor impossible so I’m worried that this game is one. If it’s not, then it’s potentially the biggest bargain that I’ve come across for some time and I’ll explain why.
First of all, Ermis are crap. Quite seriously, they’re by far and away the worst side in the division. They play badly, they don’t retain possession, they ship goals easily, and they barely create nor score any chances. There are no positives for this team! Some sides are bottom of the table because they’ve been unlucky but Ermis are there because everyone in the division is better than they are, simply put.
Now, the above is bad enough in itself but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Ermis have have big financial problems and have subsequently parted with Invincible, Elias, and Moustakas on free transfers. The remaining players at the club have been asked to consider a wage reduction and they’re reportedly taking some time to consider it, understandably.
On top of that, the only good player that Ermis have is suspended. Yes, their only striker, the experienced Serjao, is sitting this one out today. Oh dear, oh dear! Suffice to say that Ermis could have had more fortune ahead of this game.
Now, realistically speaking, Apollon Limassol aren’t that much better off themselves, financially speaking. They’re also in a bit of a rut following three consecutive losses, albeit that two were derbies and one was against a superior Anorthosis Famagusta. However, quality-wise, they’re some distance ahead of Ermis. Apollon were forced to part with some good players pre-season. More than that, really – they were instrumental players and Apollon are not the same side without them. However, to deny that they’re anything but a top seven side would just be ridiculous. Noro, Kolar, Hamdani, Nunez – these are all good players for Apollon and match winners in games like these.
Apollon are generally a confidence team and that aspect of things does concern me ahead of this match. However, it’s the only thing that concerns me because they’re a lot better than Ermis, much more than the odds reflect.
So now you can no doubt see my concern as to why Apollon are 6/5 to win a game against a side that they’re a lot better than. Maybe they will make a mess of it due to a lack of confidence but for me, it’s well worth the risk because there’s no way that they should be longer than evens to win this game as Ermis are just terrible and are facing a lot of issues right now.
Verdict: Apollon Limassol to win at 6/5.
APOEL Nicosia vs AEK Larnaca – away win with +1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Well, APOEL Nicosia are the best side in Cyprus, by foul means or by fair. However, there’s no way that they should be around 1/3 to win this game!
APOEL have lots of ability and lots of depth, which helps them massively, of course. They’ve just beaten Omonia in the derby so spirits are high. They know that they’ll better AEL Limassol so the league table won’t bother them at the moment – AEL Limassol just don’t score enough goals.
However, APOEL still have hard games and this is absolutely one of them. AEK Larnaca are a good side, especially under new boss Vlemmings, and they’ve got bags of experience in their side. Matters aren’t made easier by the absence of some big players with striker Almeida still out and two essential defenders suspended in Jahic and Oliveira, not to mention Brazilian midfielder Marcinho.
Therefore, AEK Larnaca have an opportunity to use their momentum to cause a bit of an upset here. To be honest, I’d be all over laying APOEL Nicosia if I didn’t believe that APOEL controlled the referees but they do control the referees, unfortunately, and if they need to win then they will. However, this won’t be a “fixed” game, per se – AEK Larnaca will fight tooth and nail to take points off the biggest club in Cyprus and I think that they’re more than capable of doing so with such quality in their ranks and with strong momentum behind them.
Therefore, I anticipate a close game between two close sides. APOEL may well win the game but I can’t see it being comprehensive – AEK should be more than good enough to fend APOEL off for most of the game. For me, giving AEK Larnaca a +1.5 goal head start against any side in Cyprus is worth it at generous odds of 4/5 and APOEL are no exception to that rule so that’s my call for this one.
Verdict: AEK Larnaca to win with a +1.5 handicap at 4/5.
Team news
Cypriot Division 1:
Ermis – Serjao is absent. Elias, Invincible, and Moustakas have been released.
Apollon Limassol – No absentees.
Aris Limassol – Lombe, Grunic, and Imperiale are absent.
Enosis Neon Paralimni – Yakubu, Moukouri, and Kiassos are absent.
APOEL Nicosia – Almeida, Oliveira, Jahic, Boaventura, and Marcinho are absent.
AEK Larnaca – Mrdakovic is absent.
Alki Larnaca – Dobrasinovic is absent.
Omonia Nicosia – Aguiar and Bouzon are absent.
English Championship:
Birmingham City – Carr and Mutch return.
Portuguese Liga Sagres:
Olhanense – Luis Filipe, Andre Micael, Jander, Nuno Piloto, Dady, Jose Goncalves, Rui Duarte, Ismaily, and Gerson are absent.
Sporting Braga – 10 players absent but no names mentioned. Helder Barbosa is a doubt.