TFT Issue 280!
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Featured game
Central Coast Mariners vs Gold Coast United – home win with -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Today’s featured game is the A-League clash between league leaders Central Coast Mariners and struggling Gold Coast United.
Hosts Central Coast Mariners are in fine form and are showing no signs of slowing down. As I said in my last preview of them, however, I do believe that their run will end sooner rather than later. They’re playing really well with great spirit but lack the depth and experience to maintain their run, in my opinion. However, I can’t knock them at all for how they’re playing right now. Perth Glory may have given them a bit of a match last time out but they scored three goals in the game and made it look really easy. Ibini-Isei up front looks unplayable in this league at times and that’s doing the Central Coast Mariners attack the world of good. They’ve got pace down the flanks and their counter-attacks are deadly. Ibini-Isei and Amini are the growing heart of this team, though, with both in fine fettle and looking deadly in each game. Central Coast Mariners are unbeaten in nine games now, winning eight of those games, and subsequently bring a lot of momentum into this game. They’ve bagged a minimum of two goals in all of their eight games won and have only failed to win when they’ve failed to score, which was in a 0-0 draw with Melbourne Victory. So, yeah – if they score, they win; I like that!
Can visitors Gold Coast United keep them out? I’m going to be amazed if they do. Yes, they won the “local” derby with Brisbane Roar last time out and do bring a bit of momentum into this game as a result. Should they have won the game? Not really. It was a pretty dour occasion where a goalless draw would have been a fairer reflection on the game. However, the referee inexplicably gave Gold Coast United a penalty that never was a few minutes before the end of the game. The foul was actually outside the box but the hosts unsurprisingly didn’t complain about that fact and substitute Severino coolly slotted home to win the game for the hosts. It was a scrappy affair in a game devoid of atmosphere and good chances and that tends to be how most Gold Coast United games go, in all honesty. They may have kept three clean sheets in a row now but let’s leave it at lady luck favouring them for a little while because it’s little more than that, I assure you! Striker McAllister had to be substituted for Gold Coast United last match and is a doubt for this game. If he’s out then it’s Rigters on his own and that’s not concerning at all, really. The Aussies tend to rave about his powerful shot but seem to miss that he’s fairly clueless with his positioning, movement, and decision-making. Number one goalkeeper Moss is still out for the visitors – his replacement Tyson was barely tested last match but will get a thorough examination here – and midfield regular Beekmans is suspended following a fifth yellow card last time out. Rozic returns for the visitors but numbers are running thin for an already thin squad and considering their lack of ability and depth, I think they’re in for a long game here. My sole concern regarding them would be the pace of Halloran and Harold but that’s it, really. This side is generally ineffectual and that’s what I expect to see here.
Bluntly, I expect a pretty comfortable game for the hosts. They only conceded aganist Perth Glory as goalkeeper Ryan fumbled a shot from distance into his own goal. Perth Glory did very little to Central Coast Mariners despite working hard and that’s been a strength of Central Coast Mariners this season, really – their ability to dominate games. They’ve also been very clinical and I expect that to be the case again today against their under-strength opponents and given the gulf in potency between the two sides and that I thoroughly expect this game to end as a home win, I’ve no option but to look at taking Central Coast Mariners with a -1 Asian Handicap at generous odds of evens.
Verdict: Central Coast Mariners to beat the -1 Asian Handicap at evens.
Additional games
Newcastle Jets vs Perth Glory – home win at evens.
Are Newcastle Jets a good team? Well, no, not really. They’re a bunch of hard workers that have a strong level of cohesion and belief. They play a physical game on a tight pitch and subsequently you’ll rarely see them make a mess of a game at home. Only long-term absentee Culina is out for them here with the return of midfield regular Wheelhouse so they’re pretty much at full-strength. Brockie and Griffiths have played well this season for Newcastle Jets and their potency has enabled the Jets to win four out of their six home games in the A-League. They have been felled a couple of times at home, admittedly, but you’ll no doubt note that it’s the bigger A-League sides that tend to triumph here. Note that Newcastle Jets have scored in all their home games this season, too. They’re a very different side at home compared to when they’re away from home and I’ll give them a shot at beating anyone in Australia when playing at home, which is precisely what I am doing today with a full squad at van Egmond’s disposal.
Visitors Perth Glory are the hapless team to try and take points off the Jets on their own turf but they’re really not well-placed to do it! They played fairly well against Central Coast Mariners without really doing any damage. Their goal was a speculative shot from distance that the goalkeeper spilled into his own net and was one of a handful of chances that Perth Glory created. Admittedly, playing without Josh Mitchell naturally harmed their game as he was sent off part-way through the first-half of the game. However, the lack of cohesion that Perth Glory have in their team is worrying. The lack of cohesion they have at the back is truly terrifying – I’ll be amazed if they keep a clean sheet playing like that. They miss defender Mitchell today through suspension and joining him on the sidelines are fellow defenders Berger and Coyne. What this basically means is that they’ll be furtively hoping that Dutch defender van den Brink holds things together at the back but there’s little chance of that, to be honest – the Glory are just horrendous at defending, partially when it comes to holding a line or dealing with one-twos on the flanks. Playmaker Andrezinho and bit-part midfielder Pantelidis are both out for this game too whilst star striker Smeltz is a big doubt. Given how badly Perth Glory are playing and how ineffectual they seem to be when they’ve got a full squad, it’s hard to see them doing anything here with no options and no confidence.
Newcastle Jets have won this fixture for their last three home encounters with Perth Glory and haven’t conceded in those three games. Perth Glory miss a lot of players here and the hosts should really take advantage of that. For me, the home win is a bargain at evens as I see the only chance of it failing as Newcastle Jets drawing a blank in a 0-0 draw and given that they’ve scored in all their home games in the A-League this season, I fancy them to win this one today too.
Verdict: Newcastle Jets to win at evens.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa – under 3 goals at 9/10.
Although we all know that Chelsea have the firepower to blow Aston Villa away, I’m not confident whatsoever that we’ll see it in this game. Chelsea have looked very unconvincing in the final third of the pitch in the vast majority of their recent games with their saving grace being promising English striker Daniel Sturridge, who is having a great season. Mata is playing well too, to his credit, but we’re not seeing enough from Drogba, Torres, or Kalou when deployed so Chelsea are really struggling to score goals. Villas-Boas has made his midfield a tenacious one with engines Ramires and Meireles patrolling – it should be complete when Essien returns after yet another lengthy lay-off. I don’t know if the 4-3-3 he used at Porto will work for Chelsea but Villas-Boas is certainly attempting it. Chelsea’s defence and goalkeeper look vulnerable and the absence of Ivanovic today won’t help them. They’re supposedly on the verge of signing Bolton Wanderers centre-back Cahill to help their defence out but we’ll see how that goes. I’d be more concerned about Chelsea’s defence if Villa could attack, however!
Look, Agbonlahor and Bent are both gifted attackers in the right team but McLeish’s dour and boring tactics are stifling their progress as players. Villa barely manage to string together any kind of consistent attacking threat which is also harming the development of promising winger Albrighton. It must be frustrating for the players and fans of Aston Villa alike to see a good side being dragged into an unnecessary relegation battle but that’s where they’re at right now. Confidence is ebbing low and Villa are starting to go into games like these with eleven men behind the ball hoping that counter-attacks will save them. That may work here but will they score twice? I seriously doubt it. I’m not even convinced that they’ll score once unless the Chelsea defence helps them out, although I will concede that that’s possible. Hutton is back so Villa have a natural right-back available again, which helps my bet here. Collins is a doubt – hopefully he’ll pull through – and Heskey is absent, which gives McLeish even less options in attack. Bent is listed as a doubt for this game but I think we’ll see him return, to be honest.
Villa have scored in just two out of their last seven Premier League games, which backs up my points made above. Three out of their last four away games have gone under 2.5 goals and given that Chelsea’s attack is misfiring, I have to look at taking under 3 goals as a real bargain at 9/10.
Verdict: Under 3 goals at 9/10.
Norwich City vs Fulham – over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
A lot of you may be falling over yourselves to take Norwich to win this one at long odds and I can see where you’re coming from if so. Norwich are a good side and create lots of chances so you’d have to fancy them to get the win at home against a good number of Premier League sides if they keep playing as well as they have been.
However, I am not sure they’ll do it today and the reasoning behind that is that Fulham are starting to play well. Dembele and Ruiz are starting to really pull their weight and with American attacker Dempsey in the form of his career, you have to start taking Fulham seriously. Don’t get me wrong – there’s a lot of work to do – but Jol’s Fulham is starting to take shape. Out goes the long ball tactics and in comes the short passing game and it’ll be interesting to see how that works for them. Murphy and Duff are old hands and will help the younger players/newbies so all Fulham really miss is a proper goalscorer, which is a blow against sides that can defend but it shouldn’t be an issue against an absent-minded Norwich defence.
People say that Fulham played badly against Manchester United lately; I heartily disagree with that. Fulham were outclassed by a better side that worked hard but Fulham actually did all they could and actually played deceptively well in the second-half. Indeed, had they had a proper striker available to them in the second-half, they would have scored a goal or two but instead most of their chances fell to Andy Johnson, who fluffed some straightforward attempts on goal. Overall, Fulham do create chances though and I think they’ll bag against Norwich at least once.
I don’t need to wax lyrical about Norwich’s ability to attack and score goals any more than I already have so I do think that they’ll score here. However, the potential absence of Tierney at full-back may again cause Norwich issues as it did against Spurs although Naughton’s return should help them. Zamora and Johnson miss out for Fulham but they don’t really fit into Jol’s plans, in my view, so they’re not as big absentees as they would have been in previous seasons. Duff’s absence harms their wideplay a little but they’ve got enough through the middle now with Ruiz to make me think that they’ll do enough to score at least once against Norwich. Therefore, my call is over 2.5 goals in what should be an interesting game.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Newcastle Jets – Culina is absent. Wheelhouse returns.
Perth Glory – Andrezinho, Coyne, Pantelidis, Young, Neville, Berger, Sikora, and Mitchell are absent. Smeltz is a doubt.
Central Coast Mariners – No absentees.
Gold Coast United – Moss, Broadfoot, Porter, and Beekmans are absent. McAllister is a doubt. Rozic returns.
Brisbane Roar – Redmayne and Broich are doubts.
Melbourne Victory – Velaphi is absent. Celeski returns.