TFT Issue 283!
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Featured game
Melbourne Heart vs Adelaide United – home win at 9/10.
Today’s featured game is the A-League game between in-form Melbourne Heart and a rejuvenated Adelaide United.
I watched Melbourne Heart dismantled Sydney FC 0-4 away from home last time out and was simply thoroughly impressed by their lethal counter-attacking ability and their clinical finishing. They’ve got tremendous belief at the moment, even when they fall behind, and they just look so dangerous in front of goal that it’s hard not to take them seriously here. Although you can point to an excellent season for Dugandzic, there are no real stars in this team; just a bunch of hard-workers with lots of cohesion. Alex Terra has been around and he knows the score in the A-League and that blend of youth and experience that van’t Schip has fashioned is impressive. Melbourne Heart play entertaining football and on the back of seven wins from their previous eight games, I really fancy them to do the business again today.
The continued absence of defensive rock Cassio will make Adelaide United’s defence more vulnerable in games where their opponents can punish them. Coolen has done a good job in the previous two games he’s hard in charge, adding a great sense of belief to the team and not to mention taking four points from six. However, playing Wellington Phoenix at home and Sydney FC away are not the hardest of games this season, as well as Sydney FC have been playing sporadically this season. It’s not a daunting set of fixtures, basically, but this will be a true test for Mr Coolen. Can he get his side to give big van Dijk up front the service that he needs to score all the goals that we know he can? Can he unify the team and make them work harder? I think he can with time but I don’t think that they’re good enough yet to withstand a side playing as well as Melbourne Heart are. There are individuals on the side of Adelaide United that can cause problems here but I have to confess that I’d be surprised to see it today.
For me, there’s plenty of value on the home win for in-form Melbourne Heart.
Verdict: Melbourne Heart to win at 9/10.
Additional games
Wellington Phoenix vs Sydney FC – home win with draw no bet at 4/5.
You guys know I love to take Wellington Phoenix to win at home because nobody plays well in New Zealand but them and I think the same will apply here. I simply cannot even begin to fathom the difference between Wellington Phoenix on the road and Wellington Phoenix at home because it just doesn’t make sense how a side can be so different. However, Herbert’s boys always show up on their own turf and usually with plenty of vigour and potency. Lochhead returns at full-back for the hosts which means that only long-term absentee Pantelis is out for this one although Ifill is a doubt, as usual. The Phoenix aren’t blessed with depth so Herbert having actual options in his side will make this all the more interesting. For me, Wellington Phoenix are worth taking with draw no bet at 4/5 against anyone in the A-League when they play at home and this game is no different despite their defensive frailties.
Visitors Sydney FC are not in a great position here. Despite playing some marvellous football this season, they have problems being consistent in front of goal and they also have the issue of overcoming a 0-4 drubbing at home against Melbourne Heart lately. Even worse news for the visitors is that set piece specialist Karol Kisel misses out today whilst inspirational midfielder Carle is a big doubt too. This leaves gaping holes in Sydney FC’s midfield and unfortunately, their midfield is the absolute core of their displays. Their strikers are not especially good, hence the reliance on their midfield. Two key midfielders being out (well, one of them is definitely out and the other is likely to be out!) is just crippling for the demoralised visitors, even with Australian veteran Emerton in midfield. Bruno Cazarine needs support up front but I just don’t see how he’ll get it today.
The visitors look good from time to time but lack the quality in front of goal, especially without strong support from midfield. Therefore, I don’t see Wellington Phoenix losing this one and given how strong they are at home, the home win with draw no bet interests me a lot at 4/5.
Verdict: Wellington Phoenix to win with draw no bet at 4/5.
Newcastle United vs Manchester United – over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
I’ve mentioned before that there are some games where Man Utd will miss Vidic and this is definitely one of them. It’s not so much the defeat against Blackburn that bothered me but it was the goals that Man Utd conceded that bothered me. They didn’t play well, it’s true, although I would have to point to Ferguson’s decision to not name a “Plan B” on the bench as a huge part of United’s failure to win what was an essentially easy game. Blackburn worked hard but didn’t really do much. The problems that United had stemmed entirely from Yakubu, however. You see, Fergie builds his teams up so they can cope with lots of different threats and United’s answer to strength is to have Vidic bully them, which he does better than I’ve ever seen any centre-back do. Demba Ba wasn’t in the game at Old Trafford between these two sides a few weeks ago because Vidic terrorised him but I think we’ll see a different game here as United just don’t have a centre-back capable of dealing with strength. Jones is strong but he’s not got the experience to use it properly yet and it showed against Yakubu last time out.
So what will Fergie do? I think he’ll make Man Utd attack more here to compensate for the goal(s) that they should really concede here. There’s only so many ways you can deal with such a strong striker and I don’t think Man Utd can do that against Demba Ba today so I expect Newcastle to score. However, without Taylor at the back, The Magpies have looked suspect themselves and with the imminent return of Rooney, you have to fancy Man Utd to score a few themselves here. Let’s face it – it’s a must-win game for Man Utd against a side in decline and they should really record three points here.
However, Man Utd occasionally have funny games with Newcastle United and thus I can’t take the away win at 4/5. There is still some rivalry between the two clubs and occasionally it spills over onto the field, which tends to cause a few problems when it comes to breaking Newcastle down. Additionally, we have to consider that Rafael may feature in this game and I’ve never come across someone with so much disdain for Argentinians as him so there’s every chance he’ll walk for hacking Gutierrez at some point in the game. Cards would not surprise me here, to be blunt.
We all know Man Utd have better attackers than Newcastle but that doesn’t always mean that they’ll win the game. Berbatov has been superb lately, as has winger Valencia. Nani has gone off the boil a bit lately but he’s always capable of creating something from nothing. Carrick is in good form and Anderson is back to give Fergie options so Man Utd have more than enough offensive weapons to do well in this game. However, I fear for the defence being able to deal with Ba so for me, the best way to approach this one is to take over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5.
Team news
Australian A-League:
Wellington Phoenix – Pantelis is absent. Ifill is a doubt.
Sydney FC – Kisel is absent. Carle is a doubt. McFlynn returns.
Melbourne Heart – Taseski, Kalmar, Ibrahim, Zahra are absent. Fred and Germano are doubts.
Adelaide United – Cassio and Levchenko are absent. Ramsay returns.
Newcastle Jets – Culina is absent. Wheelhouse returns.
Gold Coast United – Broadfoot, Porter, and Moss are absent. McAllister is a doubt. Beekmans returns.
Central Coast Mariners – Zwaanswijk is absent. Simon may not feature as leaving soon.
Melbourne Victory – Velaphi and Celeski are absent.
Perth Glory – Sikora, Mehmet, Burns, Coyne, Neville, Young, and Pantelidis are absent. Smeltz and Andrezinho are doubts. Mitchell returns.
Brisbane Roar – Henrique, Broich, and Meyer are doubts. Nichols returns.
Greek Super League:
Ergotelis – Dadomo, Rentzas, Xadi, Romano, Bouxalakis, Kavousakis, and Kandilakis are absent.
Xanthi – No absentees.
Kerkyra – No absentees. Two new players – Martins (formerly with Olympiakos Volos) and Hliadis (defensive midfielder from Iraklis).
Aris Salonika – Xumber, Nasto Garcia, Kaznaferis, and Kododimos are absent. Portilla, Castillo, Prittas, and Papastergianos are out of the squad as they’re leaving the club.
Panaitolikos – Charisteas and Theodoridis are doubts.
Panathinaikos – Leto, Rudolf, Ninis, and Christodoulopoulos are absent.
PAOK Salonika – Contreras, Arias, and Spandacio are no longer in the squad. Vierinha has signed for VfL Wolfsburg.
Levadiakos – No absentees.
Olympiakos Piraeus – Ibagaza and Orbaiz are absent.
Atromitos – Mitroglou misses out on his return to his home team. Skondras, Tatos, and Ballas are also absent.